Wheat

[flea beetle]

Is Russia going to cut off the Black Sea region from exports, or allow shipping to continue? My gut says some black swan is going to happen in the wheat market. One elevator in particular very interested in how much wheat I have left, and what price I will sell it for. They keep calling every couple weeks to see if I will finally let it go. When I say I will wait, they keep saying it is just going to continue to drop. I don’t really deal with them much/at all. Hauled a couple loads there once a few years ago. Seems odd to me.

Maybe things will start rocking once USA winter wheat starts coming out of dormancy and the winter kill story starts coming out?

[oldjim]

Russia has agreed to extend but only for 60 days.

[flea beetle]

Russia has agreed to extend but only for 60 days.

Did they actually agree? I thought it was they would extend 60 days if some of their needs/demands were met. Russia proposed an amendment to the 120 day deal and I don’t think Ukraine has accepted yet.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The commodity bull market is far from over. We are in the process of making lows this month into next. Wheat will likely be the leader. Doubt we see new highs before new crop though.
So says the unbiased poster who still has 3/4 of his wheat in the bins unpriced, so I'm not talking my position at all...

[oldjim]

Here's what both sides are saying about the 60 day extension:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/13/russia-agrees-to-60-day-black-sea-grain-deal-extension-a80466

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-ready-to-extend-the-grain-deal-for-60-days

[jazz]

[flea beetle]

[ATTACH]12166[/ATTACH]

Although I do agree we are typically hotter and drier during an El Niño, all indicators that I follow point to a very wet June/July. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but I am hopeful. Will see if we get enough rain in early summer to carry us through to fall like this past year. Lord knows we need it!

[TSIPP]

Wasn’t 2009 and 2010 record rain fall events for southern Saskatchewan, both those years were El Niño years.

[furrowtickler]

Something going on today with wheat
Some premiums the last hour

[shtferbrains]

Commodity board wheat did full 180.

Was down 8 cents now up 14

[LWeber]

Wasn’t 2009 and 2010 record rain fall events for southern Saskatchewan, both those years were El Niño years.

[workboots]

Some wheat market dissection


https://millermagazine.com/blog/global-wheat-market-sits-on-a-powder-keg-5038

[seldomseen]

Read an article in the Western Producer back in Nov or Dec that thought the wheat market should rally in April.
Can’t remember who wrote it or their reasoning but thought I would hold my wheat till then and see if they were right.
Might be a mistake by me but should know in about a month.

[BTO780]

Haven’t sold a kernel.
These crooks should be put away.
This little rally today is a joke, leave bin doors closed!!!!

[Marusko]

Is it strange to anyone else that wheat is UP on news that the black sea corridor agreement should be extended for 60 days? Where did all the heavy selling come from in the lead-up to this news?

The commodity bull market is far from over. We are in the process of making lows this month into next. Wheat will likely be the leader. Doubt we see new highs before new crop though.
So says the unbiased poster who still has 3/4 of his wheat in the bins unpriced, so I'm not talking my position at all...

Haven’t sold a kernel.
These crooks should be put away.
This little rally today is a joke, leave bin doors closed!!!!

thanks for doing your part to support prices. lets hope you're some of the few that held, not the many.