Wheat

[furrowtickler]

Is it strange to anyone else that wheat is UP on news that the black sea corridor agreement should be extended for 60 days? Where did all the heavy selling come from in the lead-up to this news?







thanks for doing your part to support prices. lets hope you're some of the few that held, not the many.

Ya seemed like a strange day , down at the start then a $20 swing up on limited news ?

[flea beetle]

Is it strange to anyone else that wheat is UP on news that the black sea corridor agreement should be extended for 60 days? Where did all the heavy selling come from in the lead-up to this news?







thanks for doing your part to support prices. lets hope you're some of the few that held, not the many.

The 60 day deal isn’t ratified yet, and the markets are jittery over it. Massive net short position to be covered if talks don’t go the right way.

Original 120 day deal was worded that it would automatically renew if neither side proposed change. Russia proposed change, and Ukraine not happy about it. This could go either way.

[furrowtickler]

They might regret shipping out all that cheap wheat from the Black Sea area .
Ukraine production will be severely hampered and who knows what the growing season will be like in Russia .

Could be an interesting summer if there is not a complete financial collapse in the meantime
Teetering on edge now with some bank failures

[Robertbarlage]

None to wet in western Canada for that matter.

[makar]

None to wet in western Canada for that matter.

And for me a good thing, el nino makes a crappy cool damp year but good crops here.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

None to wet in western Canada for that matter.

Nor Australia:

[Landdownunder]

Nor Australia:

elnino signiture.

but we do have subsoil reserves in alot of areas sadly some dont west aust perth area has only had 1.5mm novemeber

[SmallTimeOperator]

Wasn’t 2009 and 2010 record rain fall events for southern Saskatchewan, both those years were El Niño years.

If my mind serves me correctly, there was some volcano in Europe spewing lots of particles into the air. So much that jets flying through the ash clouds were stalling their engines. And then air traffic was re-routing. That ash encircled the northern hemisphere in mere days. And then it started raining. Just an observation…

[flea beetle]

Taking off next week, or going in the dump?

P and h was calling beginning of the week offering $11.25 for #1-13.5. Text went out today that they put it up to $11.50.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Taking off next week, or going in the dump?

P and h was calling beginning of the week offering $11.25 for #1-13.5. Text went out today that they put it up to $11.50.

All the known bearish news is priced in now. Grain corridor extended. Russia undercutting everyone to get their last years big crop out the door. Australia's big crop last year. Shorts are at record levels. Sell the rumour buy the fact. Exactly opposite to what happened last spring.

Wheat kept going up while the rest of the markets were melting down due to bank failures and panics. Now the market slowly comes to the realization that the Ukraine conflict isn't going the way the media says it is. Stocks are still very tight. Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Argentina, South Africa are all forecast to have significantly smaller wheat crops.

[Landdownunder]

i farm in marginal low rainfall country but is quite reliable.

are some of the poor wheat in texas oklahoma etc similar meaning they dont have to deviate to far from average and turns bad quick?

yeah asked similar question a few weeks back.

crop ratings seemed to not raise many suprises yet or to early

[LEP]

i farm in marginal low rainfall country but is quite reliable.

are some of the poor wheat in texas oklahoma etc similar meaning they dont have to deviate to far from average and turns bad quick?

yeah asked similar question a few weeks back.

crop ratings seemed to not raise many suprises yet or to early

I think Texas and Oklahoma are very dry and likely to have low yields. But I think those states are small potatoes in the total picture.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

After all of the drama that occurred this week, here's what happened to my local prices. CPS wheat up 18 cents since last friday, canola down 16 cents. I guess the world didn't end after all.
I'll go out on a limb and say we've seen the Lows for the year, or at the very least it won't spend very much time below those levels.
At some point, the fundamentals of grains will prevail over the fear of an economic meltdown.
Anything, the fundamentals are more bullish now than they were in March of last year when the market was pricing in the worst possible case scenario, which didn't play out fast enough to keep the bullish story going.

[furrowtickler]

Dry areas still too dry , eastern wheat is in good shape , Northern Wheat area more snow and could be late .

[flea beetle]

Elevators don’t seem to want wheat. Futures rose roughly 75-80 cents/bushel lately, and basis responded in the opposite direction. Same net price, just the elevator makes more when you dump it…

I had the urge to lock the basis a few weeks ago, but chickened out. Coulda/shoulda/woulda.