Wheat

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Taking off next week, or going in the dump?

P and h was calling beginning of the week offering $11.25 for #1-13.5. Text went out today that they put it up to $11.50.

All the known bearish news is priced in now. Grain corridor extended. Russia undercutting everyone to get their last years big crop out the door. Australia's big crop last year. Shorts are at record levels. Sell the rumour buy the fact. Exactly opposite to what happened last spring.

Wheat kept going up while the rest of the markets were melting down due to bank failures and panics. Now the market slowly comes to the realization that the Ukraine conflict isn't going the way the media says it is. Stocks are still very tight. Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Argentina, South Africa are all forecast to have significantly smaller wheat crops.

[Landdownunder]

i farm in marginal low rainfall country but is quite reliable.

are some of the poor wheat in texas oklahoma etc similar meaning they dont have to deviate to far from average and turns bad quick?

yeah asked similar question a few weeks back.

crop ratings seemed to not raise many suprises yet or to early

[LEP]

i farm in marginal low rainfall country but is quite reliable.

are some of the poor wheat in texas oklahoma etc similar meaning they dont have to deviate to far from average and turns bad quick?

yeah asked similar question a few weeks back.

crop ratings seemed to not raise many suprises yet or to early

I think Texas and Oklahoma are very dry and likely to have low yields. But I think those states are small potatoes in the total picture.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

After all of the drama that occurred this week, here's what happened to my local prices. CPS wheat up 18 cents since last friday, canola down 16 cents. I guess the world didn't end after all.
I'll go out on a limb and say we've seen the Lows for the year, or at the very least it won't spend very much time below those levels.
At some point, the fundamentals of grains will prevail over the fear of an economic meltdown.
Anything, the fundamentals are more bullish now than they were in March of last year when the market was pricing in the worst possible case scenario, which didn't play out fast enough to keep the bullish story going.

[furrowtickler]

Dry areas still too dry , eastern wheat is in good shape , Northern Wheat area more snow and could be late .

[flea beetle]

Elevators don’t seem to want wheat. Futures rose roughly 75-80 cents/bushel lately, and basis responded in the opposite direction. Same net price, just the elevator makes more when you dump it…

I had the urge to lock the basis a few weeks ago, but chickened out. Coulda/shoulda/woulda.

[Landdownunder]

learning reading etc etc trying to use logic but wheat is confusing me last few weeks openly admit.

Sold all remaining tonnes about a month ago

just 600t lupins on farm to go almost unsaleable nobody wants them and about 30 tonne faba beans similar story

edit will concerntrate on new seasons $400 per tonne for 10 to 11.5% on offer at moment for nov harvest/delivery shall wait