Canola

[crusher]

Is there a bottom? Painful to participate in this one.

[dave4441]

2008 all over again. Quick google shows corn dropped 50% that year. Feels like it isn't over to me.

It will impact seeding intentions and fertilizer use. Which could compound fert declines. Hard to know what is going to happen.

[BTO780]

Spend spend and spend some more then watch these markets go to sheet. Analysts predicting more wheat and canola. Guess surveys were done when markets were on fire. These two crops have fallen the most.

Not much excitement going into spring.

We all thought last yrs crop was expensive to put in, this one will be worse yet. Least prices were better a yr ago.

Tell me one good reason to keep playing this game.

We are getting screwed in every direction.

[wheatking16]

Is there a bottom? Painful to participate in this one.

Catching a falling knife is difficult to do with success;however, this 730 level on the nearby month is worth looking at.

[Herc]

Haven’t heard from the $30/bus peanut gallery in a bit. You guys still holding onto 2 years worth of crop? Asking for a friend……

[fjlip]

COT March 14, Just piling on, no real reason.



What will May expiring cause them to do? Roll or buy out?

AG Canada still guessing $850 Canola?



Optimistic like farmers?

[dave4441]

COT March 14, Just piling on, no real reason.

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What will May expiring cause them to do? Roll or buy out?

AG Canada still guessing $850 Canola?

[ATTACH]12226[/ATTACH]

Optimistic like farmers?

I have one particular rule regarding marketing. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to what Ag Canada has to say. They simply have little to no knowledge. That part of Ag Canada should be closed.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I have one particular rule regarding marketing. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to what Ag Canada has to say. They simply have little to no knowledge. That part of Ag Canada should be closed.

Sounds like a very good policy. But is there any Canadian government agency that does have good knowledge and produces useful information?

[fjlip]

If any agency, Analyst, can shed light on this market, please share.

Soybeans still at $20 CAD.

[foragefarmer]

Haven’t heard from the $30/bus peanut gallery in a bit. You guys still holding onto 2 years worth of crop? Asking for a friend……

Didn't the opportunity they were looking for come very close to that price last year at this time?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If any agency, Analyst, can shed light on this market, please share.

Soybeans still at $20 CAD.

Even better, I just read today that canola oil is now cheaper than Palm oil, which has almost never happened in history.
One news story I read a couple of days ago said that as it stands right now, renewable diesel/jet fuel from Canada does not qualify for the renewable fuel subsidy in the US. But there's nothing stopping the subsidized US renewable fuel from finding its way into our market, which would drastically undercut our renewable fuel price, and maybe the nail in the coffin for many of these proposed renewable fuels plants which have not yet been built. Apparently this was old news, but seems as if the market is suddenly trading it as if it is new news.

https://www.producer.com/news/renewable-fuel-sector-could-be-devastated/

Crush margin just keeps going up every day that the price of canola goes down. Now almost 10 times what it was last year at this time.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

MacDon was the one who put out what sounded like crazy targets back in early October of 2021. $53 proportional was the ultimate number, from Socrates.1256 new resistance level, courtesy of the quant. I got the above listed 599 and 608 as buy levels. Also a $2356~ target, yes that's $53/bushel as resistance. 2356 popped up back in Late july and i thought it was full of shit, but the drought got worse, it hadn't really rained since, and inputs are getting more scarce. There's no time limit on it but in my opinion we are in a 8 yr drought lining up with the solar cycle and global cooling, the inverse or the flip side of the previous 10 year wet. Be very phucking careful pricing. Feb looks like closest turn point, expecting a high. This is a long ways from over. Only a monthly close under 599 would get me bearish. Somebody shut up the covid threads.... we got $ to make, the kind you retire on.
No specific timeline given, but I assume would be somewhere within the 8th year cycle he is referring to.
I am still willing to wager that he was correct.
Does anyone else keep in touch with Macdon02?

[wmoebis]

Sounds like a very good policy. But is there any Canadian government agency that does have good knowledge and produces useful information?

What non Gov't agency do farmers use that has good knowledge and useful info. Did they say sell or hold? Did farmers listen?

[wheatking16]

MacDon was the one who put out what sounded like crazy targets back in early October of 2021. $53 proportional was the ultimate number, from Socrates.1256 new resistance level, courtesy of the quant. I got the above listed 599 and 608 as buy levels. Also a $2356~ target, yes that's $53/bushel as resistance. 2356 popped up back in Late july and i thought it was full of shit, but the drought got worse, it hadn't really rained since, and inputs are getting more scarce. There's no time limit on it but in my opinion we are in a 8 yr drought lining up with the solar cycle and global cooling, the inverse or the flip side of the previous 10 year wet. Be very phucking careful pricing. Feb looks like closest turn point, expecting a high. This is a long ways from over. Only a monthly close under 599 would get me bearish. Somebody shut up the covid threads.... we got $ to make, the kind you retire on.
No specific timeline given, but I assume would be somewhere within the 8th year cycle he is referring to.
I am still willing to wager that he was correct.
Does anyone else keep in touch with Macdon02?

This quote appears to be Armstrong Economics-ish.

[jazz]