Canola

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This quote appears to be Armstrong Economics-ish.

Yes, as I credited above, coming from Socrates. I'm not really convinced about the utility of that program. There seems to be a lot of moving the goal posts in hindsight when Armstrong takes credit for predictions.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

[ATTACH]12228[/ATTACH]

And then there is this from today:
The Government of #Russia has adopted a decision to ban the export of #****seed until 31.08.2023. In 2022, the production was 4,515 million tons (2,794 in 2021)
Probably not a market mover, but in 2022, it did produce 1/4 as much canola/****seed as all of Canada did

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What non Gov't agency do farmers use that has good knowledge and useful info. Did they say sell or hold? Did farmers listen?

Having access to good information, and listening to it or acting on it are completely unrelated topics. Just ask me...

[AlbertaFarmer5]

According to StoneX's forecast, in the current year the consumption of soyoil in Brazil will reach 8.5 million tons (+12% compared to 2022). Consumption for biodiesel production will be 5.8 million tons (+24%). Soyoil production in Brazil is expected to reach 10.4 million tons (+2%), and soyoil exports are projected to reach 1.8 million tons (-31%).

So, in spite of Brazil's record large soybean crop, they're soy oil experts will actually be down this year, as internal consumption has increased. Granted, Brazil is not a big processor, exporting mostly raw product. Argentina importing significant amount of Brazilian soybeans to keep their crush facilities functioning with their drastically reduced crop.⁰

[shtferbrains]

Bio Fuel is the cornerstone of meeting their Co2 reduction goals for 2030.
Heavy truck,Rail,Jet,etc where there is zero opinion to reduce Co2.
Also a government subsidy war on with Biden's "Inflation Reduction" attracting all the CapEx.

[errolanderson]

Amazing, canola and crude oil charts can overlay a Credit Suisse chart. Shows how the great financial crisis has a direct impact on the grain and energy markets. 2023 now compares closely to 2008 crisis . . . .

[LWeber]

Even better, I just read today that canola oil is now cheaper than Palm oil, which has almost never happened in history.
One news story I read a couple of days ago said that as it stands right now, renewable diesel/jet fuel from Canada does not qualify for the renewable fuel subsidy in the US. But there's nothing stopping the subsidized US renewable fuel from finding its way into our market, which would drastically undercut our renewable fuel price, and maybe the nail in the coffin for many of these proposed renewable fuels plants which have not yet been built. Apparently this was old news, but seems as if the market is suddenly trading it as if it is new news.

https://www.producer.com/news/renewable-fuel-sector-could-be-devastated/

Crush margin just keeps going up every day that the price of canola goes down. Now almost 10 times what it was last year at this time.

ICE CANADA: The Canola Board Crush Margin is comprised of an oil and meal contribution and a seed cost. It is calculated by subtracting the ICE Futures Canada canola futures price from the sum of the weighted value of the per tonne Chicago Board of Trade futures price for soybean oil and soybean meal. The calculation is based on a 40% oil contribution and 60% meal contribution per tonne of canola seed crushed. The margin calculation is currency adjusted using the Bank of Canada noon rate and is published in both Canadian and U.S. dollars. The margin calculation is a measure of the trend in core processing returns at approximate industry yields. Actual canola crushing margins are affected by numerous factors including individual processing plant yields, actual oil content of the seed, and the pricing basis for oil, meal and seed.


The canola board margin is useless ... it has next to zero relevance for actual crush margins...

[AlbertaFarmer5]

ICE CANADA: The Canola Board Crush Margin is comprised of an oil and meal contribution and a seed cost. It is calculated by subtracting the ICE Futures Canada canola futures price from the sum of the weighted value of the per tonne Chicago Board of Trade futures price for soybean oil and soybean meal. The calculation is based on a 40% oil contribution and 60% meal contribution per tonne of canola seed crushed. The margin calculation is currency adjusted using the Bank of Canada noon rate and is published in both Canadian and U.S. dollars. The margin calculation is a measure of the trend in core processing returns at approximate industry yields. Actual canola crushing margins are affected by numerous factors including individual processing plant yields, actual oil content of the seed, and the pricing basis for oil, meal and seed.


The canola board margin is useless ... it has next to zero relevance for actual crush margins...

Thank you for the explanation. What do you use instead?

[LWeber]

Thank you for the explanation. What do you use instead?

Everything you need to track it yourself is listed at the bottom

[shtferbrains]

Last I saw Nipawin Bunge was doing 1500 T/Day.

I assume one of smallest plants.

[LWeber]

Last I saw Nipawin Bunge was doing 1500 T/Day.

I assume one of smallest plants.

At 9 mil crush per year - 24,657 MT are crushed every single day...
14 plants in Canada - averaging 1761 MT a day
Transparency is a four letter word.... and is worse since 2012 than it has ever been in history.
Too many ass lickers and not enough ass kickers ...

[crusher]

I did my part, I sold a load yesterday. I'd be thrilled if that was the bottom. Soyoil chart looks UGLY. Likely a follower to canola. haha

[Sodbuster]

I did my part, I sold a load yesterday. I'd be thrilled if that was the bottom. Soyoil chart looks UGLY. Likely a follower to canola. haha

I agree, ugly looking chart for soyoil, not sure how canola will respond in the near term.

[crusher]

Larry,

Admittedly there are many factors in a net canola price, but do you have any charts of crush margin vs. Canola price? Is your current crush margin at the high end of historic? How does it compare to 2022? At current new crop prices, with a tonne per acre yield, doesn’t leave me with much of a margin.

[Old Cowzilla]

Never any bargins at the local feedmill in January so the chart shows. Darn hungry cows !