Farm crisis around the corner?

[Crestliner]

Well its almost December 2023. Let's do a recap using 2023 crop production numbers and current market prices on just canola and wheat (the big acres).

"Where did all the Farm Income go since the 2021/22 price run-up"?

Wheat:

2022- 34.7 mmt x $433 = $15 Bill
2024- 37.0 mmt x $332 = $12 Bill

Missing $3 Billion

Canola:

2022- 21 mmt x $812 = $17 Bill
2023- 17.4mmt x $662 = $11.5 Bill

Missing $5.5 Billion

Interest on Farm Debt:

2022-138 Billion x 4.7% = $6.4Bill
2023-150 Billion x 7.2% = $10.8 Bill

Added(Missing) $4.4 Billion

Inputs: I left them unchanged for the moment.

I know this is just a rough calculation...but there is about $13 Billion missing from the farm economy since the last 12 months...

The question is, is this having negative impact yet?

[furrowtickler]

Well its almost December 2023. Let's do a recap using 2023 crop production numbers and current market prices on just canola and wheat (the big acres).

"Where did all the Farm Income go since the 2021/22 price run-up"?

Wheat:

2022- 34.7 mmt x $433 = $15 Bill
2024- 37.0 mmt x $332 = $12 Bill

Missing $3 Billion

Canola:

2022- 21 mmt x $812 = $17 Bill
2023- 17.4mmt x $662 = $11.5 Bill

Missing $5.5 Billion

Interest on Farm Debt:

2022-138 Billion x 4.7% = $6.4Bill
2023-150 Billion x 7.2% = $10.8 Bill

Added(Missing) $4.4 Billion

Inputs: I left them unchanged for the moment.

I know this is just a rough calculation...but there is about $13 Billion missing from the farm economy since the last 12 months...

The question is, is this having negative impact yet?

Absolutely, but not everywhere.
20% of western Canada had a good crop again . Most of them still flush with money after 3 good years .
it’s the 80% that have had below average to poor crops from the last 2/3 years to 5/5 years .
add that to the numbers you shared and there is a train derailment happening in many areas not being talked about .
crop insurance coverage levels will be way down on everything but lentils in 2024 most likely and for some premiums will be higher in the worst effected areas .
things can change in the next 6 months but right now with these crop prices and billions off the table for everyone , with very bleak moisture reserves in most areas , definitely a negative effect outside the few golden zones is happening.
2024 will be a very pivotal year for a huge majority, and for the industry as a whole .
Auctions still show some life , but that’s only because new has gone ballistic in price and supply is still very low .

[Guest]

Not around here , she’s wide open in the swamp

[Old Cowzilla]

The guys with cows will be getting more attention when they go to town these days maybe even a warm welcome at the dealerships

[SASKFARMER]

It's not going to be like the 1980s because we were fighting the USA Treasury plus Europe with heavy subsidies and Ottawa said to farmers you're on your own.

Interest was 20% nothing worked.

No investors that's the big one.

Till the investor has no one to rent the land it has only one way to go up up and away.

Every week another farm is listed for sale and every week it sells. Last week 14.9 million for one gone in days and this week $12.9 on the east side.

[blackpowder]

Farmer buying still the majority.
Investors set the floor?
Cherry pick when price below perceived value?
I'm wondering what the investor's plan is if prices can no longer support 2.5-3% of FMV rents.
When appreciation stalls?
Who are they really, and what's their long term plan. I don't think they are Bay Street speculators this time.
Investor interest just showing up here now.
Some pools of money seem quite deep.
Some are farming it themselves on paper at least.
Economies of scale and stable returns even if miniscule?
Since I was born land here has gone from $50 to $100 to $1000, back to $700 for 20 years, and now $6000 in the last 20.
Farming itself has changed and we're no longer isolated here in western Canada.
A 10 year downturn will look small in the rear view for those left in the game.

[sumdumguy]

Just heard $180 cash rent offers around here. hmmm

[fjlip]

Yes a wide variety of returns/acre. Very aggressive young guns in our area. $3000/acre, $125 cash rent. NEW iron all over.

Dealerships all sold out for 2024. Must be optimism, $$$ from last 3 years. No poor crops here, bins bags all full. Check in a year, might be reality check, it's fricking DRY so far!

Made a trip from Estevan to Wadena....not great crop stubble left in majority of fields.

[Rareearth]

So…
If China has come in and bought 1/2 the durum crop with out any one knowing…

Who can guarantee China hasn’t bought 1/2 the canola crop? ….

Come on man, ( Monday night foot ball) there is a good reason for export sales reporting system. We leave a lot of dollars on the table ( exporters, farmers, provincial and national GDP)…

[dave4441]

This was some kind of twitter stat mistake. China doesn't buy durum let alone half the crop. It isn't real. And the guy that claimed it was from Chicago even. Someone mentioned it may be a coding error. We seen this last year on canary where the data was skewed. Statcan eventually sorted it out. Someone commented that likely this was the discrepancy. If you tried to buy 2 MMT of new demand for durum in any year, the price would go to the moon.

All export stats by country are available on CGC site somewhere. I use Statpublishing for export data on special crops. Dec 6 approx we will have the data for special crops exported to Oct 31. I believe the major crop data is available faster. Ie the bulk vessel shipment data.

[dave4441]

Canada has exported about 1 MMT of durum so far this crop year. Available quantity to export I think is 4.5 MMT but that may include some carryin at Aug 1.

[Rareearth]

My source

China's COFCO Imports Canadian Durum for First Time: China's state-run food group COFCO Group said it had imported Canadian durum wheat for the first time, which it would process into flour. China mainly imports finished pasta or flour processed from durum wheat, COFCO said in a statement. "This direct import of durum wheat has enriched the structure of China's imported wheat varieties, facilitated the extension of COFCO's products upstream and further improved COFCO's 'from field to table' full industry chain model," it said. China has already imported almost 2 million metric tons of durum wheat from Canada this year, according to customs data. Canada accounts for around half of the global trade of hard wheat used to make pasta. China has imported record volumes of wheat this year, with rain damage to its crop and worries over dry weather in exporting nations fueling Beijing's appetite to buy while prices are low. The world's largest wheat consumer has imported 10.83 million tons of wheat in the first 10 months of this year, a 37.7% surge from a year ago, customs data showed. (Source: Reuters)