Farm crisis around the corner?

[makar]

Bought a bush 1/4 in 1989 for 18,000, banker told me its not worth it. I agreed but said i got the cat hooked to the brushcutter idling across the fenceline. Had it mostly seeded 2 years later and he never questioned me again.

[makar]

[QUOTE= I can even remember the day the drought broke. April 27, 1991. Remember 1991 quite well. Couldnt combine or seed 2 years previous due to monsoons.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Bought a bush 1/4 in 1989 for 18,000, banker told me its not worth it. I agreed but said i got the cat hooked to the brushcutter idling across the fenceline. Had it mostly seeded 2 years later and he never questioned me again.

Do those opportunities still exist up there?

I toured around the Valleyview are and further north at least 20 years ago, and at that time there were a lot of bush quarters, and land growing back to bush, or weeds. Have they all been put back into production since then?

[makar]

Do those opportunities still exist up there?

I toured around the Valleyview are and further north at least 20 years ago, and at that time there were a lot of bush quarters, and land growing back to bush, or weeds. Have they all been put back into production since then?

No, the rich urbanites pay for bush to camp out to drink whiskey with their buddies so they can all tell the wives they are hunting.

[newguy]

Bought a bush 1/4 in 1989 for 18,000, banker told me its not worth it. I agreed but said i got the cat hooked to the brushcutter idling across the fenceline. Had it mostly seeded 2 years later and he never questioned me again.

Bought a quarter around that time for 18 grand also.Banker told me it does not pencil out if it was free.Even when the drought broke here input money was hard to get.And you bought inputs in advance and never received full payment of your crop for 2 years after inputs were purchaced.because the way
the CWB payments worked.

[GALAXIE500]

Those that got crops and farmed with money and not for money never knew what the tough 80s were about.Your area never had grasshoppers eating evergreens and paint on the houses.

I remember those conditions from the 80's over here in SW Sask. poor crops , wind , thistles, kochia , and then it would rain a bit but always wind after that. The last three years have been mostly similar.

[Crestliner]

Well its almost December 2023. Let's do a recap using 2023 crop production numbers and current market prices on just canola and wheat (the big acres).

"Where did all the Farm Income go since the 2021/22 price run-up"?

Wheat:

2022- 34.7 mmt x $433 = $15 Bill
2024- 37.0 mmt x $332 = $12 Bill

Missing $3 Billion

Canola:

2022- 21 mmt x $812 = $17 Bill
2023- 17.4mmt x $662 = $11.5 Bill

Missing $5.5 Billion

Interest on Farm Debt:

2022-138 Billion x 4.7% = $6.4Bill
2023-150 Billion x 7.2% = $10.8 Bill

Added(Missing) $4.4 Billion

Inputs: I left them unchanged for the moment.

I know this is just a rough calculation...but there is about $13 Billion missing from the farm economy since the last 12 months...

The question is, is this having negative impact yet?

[furrowtickler]

Well its almost December 2023. Let's do a recap using 2023 crop production numbers and current market prices on just canola and wheat (the big acres).

"Where did all the Farm Income go since the 2021/22 price run-up"?

Wheat:

2022- 34.7 mmt x $433 = $15 Bill
2024- 37.0 mmt x $332 = $12 Bill

Missing $3 Billion

Canola:

2022- 21 mmt x $812 = $17 Bill
2023- 17.4mmt x $662 = $11.5 Bill

Missing $5.5 Billion

Interest on Farm Debt:

2022-138 Billion x 4.7% = $6.4Bill
2023-150 Billion x 7.2% = $10.8 Bill

Added(Missing) $4.4 Billion

Inputs: I left them unchanged for the moment.

I know this is just a rough calculation...but there is about $13 Billion missing from the farm economy since the last 12 months...

The question is, is this having negative impact yet?

Absolutely, but not everywhere.
20% of western Canada had a good crop again . Most of them still flush with money after 3 good years .
it’s the 80% that have had below average to poor crops from the last 2/3 years to 5/5 years .
add that to the numbers you shared and there is a train derailment happening in many areas not being talked about .
crop insurance coverage levels will be way down on everything but lentils in 2024 most likely and for some premiums will be higher in the worst effected areas .
things can change in the next 6 months but right now with these crop prices and billions off the table for everyone , with very bleak moisture reserves in most areas , definitely a negative effect outside the few golden zones is happening.
2024 will be a very pivotal year for a huge majority, and for the industry as a whole .
Auctions still show some life , but that’s only because new has gone ballistic in price and supply is still very low .

[Guest]

Not around here , she’s wide open in the swamp

[Old Cowzilla]

The guys with cows will be getting more attention when they go to town these days maybe even a warm welcome at the dealerships