Farm crisis around the corner?

[Marusko]

Hedge funds shortest they've been in ag commodities in 4 years.... What does that tell you? I'm just a simple farmer but to me, what goes down must come up... Eventually. Can we all hold on till then?

[Marusko]

Agreed blackpowder I think there's enough farmers around here that can afford to coast or lose money for a while to hold land and rent where it's at even if markets don't recover. Wasn't expecting an increase though. There goes my budget for new underwear. Gonna have to keep these holey Calvin Kleins going for another couple years.

[wrongway]

to me I feels like 2020 and 2021 with grain prices and revenues but with 2024 costs. Yes fertilizer is down a bit from the highs of last spring but really has anything else dropped?
sure most farmers can coast for a year or 2 but that can turn into a decade or two quickly as evidenced by the 1980s and 1990s even well into the 2000's.

As mentioned several times already better take a long hard look at your costs and cut everything that doesn't making any money (fairy dust and unicorn piss). talk to your local livestock guy for advice! Those guys can make a nickle go a long way.

Don't be scared to pay yourself first and well, because if you don't think you're worth much no one else will either.

Here endeth the Sunday sermon...lol

[TOM4CWB]

Interesting cycles, 2002, 2012, 2022, and somehow folks get lulled into believing a new , much higher price era in farm prices has emerged… amazing how often history repeats itself!

Many Blessings!
Cheers

[Old Cowzilla]

Talked to a couple of cattle guys this week that sold there cows. They are glad they sold thinking that's the next shit to hit the fan We could be in for a lean spell more wrench pullin and less tire kickin I am afraid.

[Crestliner]

Anybody doing math down on the farm these days?

So far since April 2022, the market for new crop has wiped out value in Canada about:

$4 Billion in Canola (18 MMT X -$220/MT)
$3 Billion in Wheat (38 MMT X -$90/MT)

Same time period Fertilizer cost savings at $2 Billion (4 MMT X -$500/MT)...bonus!

Same time period interest costs increased by $6 Billion in last 12 months (140 Billion Debt X 4.5%)

So given average crop, $11 Billion missing from Western Canada economy next 12-18 months based on todays market prices.

Didn't include inflation on parts, fuel, runaway equipment costs and a whole bunch of others....just a rough calculation using some metrics. I'm sure I missed a lot, but the income trend doesn't look that great.

Reminds me of 1982. Bubble burst after that and we wandered in the Ag desert for 20 years until it got profitable again.

The Math today is actually worse......more than $11 billion vanished from the Western Economy in last 18 months....can the guys still living like it 2021 and bidding up land rents and land prices fasten Dunce Hats on now.

[blackpowder]

A neighbor suggested a theory.
Every 50 years land falls in half.
30s - 80s -30s?
So depending on your age you're making different conclusions.
But first, math becomes important agreed.

[Old Cowzilla]

Started in the 70's don't think I want to ride the roller coaster again