Farm crisis around the corner?

[Crestliner]

Anybody doing math down on the farm these days?

So far since April 2022, the market for new crop has wiped out value in Canada about:

$4 Billion in Canola (18 MMT X -$220/MT)
$3 Billion in Wheat (38 MMT X -$90/MT)

Same time period Fertilizer cost savings at $2 Billion (4 MMT X -$500/MT)...bonus!

Same time period interest costs increased by $6 Billion in last 12 months (140 Billion Debt X 4.5%)

So given average crop, $11 Billion missing from Western Canada economy next 12-18 months based on todays market prices.

Didn't include inflation on parts, fuel, runaway equipment costs and a whole bunch of others....just a rough calculation using some metrics. I'm sure I missed a lot, but the income trend doesn't look that great.

Reminds me of 1982. Bubble burst after that and we wandered in the Ag desert for 20 years until it got profitable again.

The Math today is actually worse......more than $11 billion vanished from the Western Economy in last 18 months....can the guys still living like it 2021 and bidding up land rents and land prices fasten Dunce Hats on now.

[blackpowder]

A neighbor suggested a theory.
Every 50 years land falls in half.
30s - 80s -30s?
So depending on your age you're making different conclusions.
But first, math becomes important agreed.

[Old Cowzilla]

Started in the 70's don't think I want to ride the roller coaster again