Rally Hats

[furrowtickler]

Are you pushing Maga rally hats? Make Agriculture Great Again, or religion.

Changing my view. It's not grass up to the ass. It's grass up to the armpits.

Don’t be a chuck , a positive thread on a much needed rally , ‘com on man

[checking]

Don’t be a chuck , a positive thread on a much needed rally , ‘com on man

Happy now that you have got that off your chest. This is my message.

I'd wager in an expanded circle there would not be enthusiasm for a rally. Odds - greater than 9 to 1. Into the eye of the beholder though go trigger words. Rally is no T-word. Rally is my 1, but 9 would chuck me for it.

I hold a different take on being bombarded with "blessing". What are people trying to prove, other than being in the wrong section that never draws any attention because who would want a section designed for their message?

[furrowtickler]

So 9 out of 10 don’t like this grain rally ?
Is that farmers , industry people, grain buyers , or just the general public ?
Cause here on Agriville 9 out of 10 farmers would be happy to see a rally . Even if it was only a few days .

[errolanderson]

Watch that basis.

If the basis is keeping up with the futures, this is a rally to stay awhile. If the basis is weakening quickly, the is a blow-off fund shortcovering rally, often shortlived.

But regardless, this provides hedgers a renewed opportunity to scale in put options for floor price protection.

Very old ‘Wealthy Farmer’ book stuff

Strong Futures +Strong Basis = Sell the cash
Strong Futures + Weak Futures = Hedge signal
Weak Futures + Strong Basis = Basis contract
Weak Futures + Weak Basis = Farm Storage

[ajl]

Priced a six month old basis contract that got rolled twice this morning. Delivered back in March. Bear market rally as conditions have improved due to 1.5" rain. No flooding so the crop still good in the low spots. Will now produce Christmas wheat due to sucker heads on the crops that have headed out already. More bushels of lower quality so the elevators will have to pay more for the good quality carry over to blend with new crop. There are some good crops too where they caught an extra shower during the dry spell.

[furrowtickler]

Great wheat rally today , excellent to see 👍👍

[furrowtickler]

Big soybean rally , pulling canola up from earlier losses this morning

[flea beetle]

Great wheat rally today , excellent to see 👍👍

You think this is a 1 and done rally or it has legs. Put a target a little above what I could have got off the combine on half of what I have left. Not sure if I should gamble on the rest, or try price it all.

Grain buyer at elevator I deal with basically said your guess is as good as mine where this thing goes. He did say that funds are covering their record short position, so maybe a guy should just tap out on last years crop and gamble on this years?

[furrowtickler]

You think this is a 1 and done rally or it has legs. Put a target a little above what I could have got off the combine on half of what I have left. Not sure if I should gamble on the rest, or try price it all.

Grain buyer at elevator I deal with basically said your guess is as good as mine where this thing goes. He did say that funds are covering their record short position, so maybe a guy should just tap out on last years crop and gamble on this years?

Ya , it could drop tomorrow hard , who knows

[wheatking16]

Don't trust bear market rallies.

There will be a time, but it is too early.

[furrowtickler]

A few major factors that may sustain a rally somewhat …
- Worst US wheat crop ratings in 60 years
- despite rains in some areas , major wheat producing areas in western Canada are still in big trouble like Manitoba , eastern Alberta and Western Sask . Many areas the rains too late , or still very little
- and then there is this …


After dumping a very large amount of cheap wheat into the market the past 6 months there is a huge very dry area in the main wheat growing regions there .

[agstar77]

I don't care as we will have very little to sell.

[furrowtickler]

I don't care as we will have very little to sell.

Was exactly the same for most of us in 2021 , big rallies with no crop . But no one gave a crap about 80% of western Canada that had nearly no crop to sell . All anyone could do was demonize farmers about high prices when it did not matter to the vast majority of us

[biglentil]

Can't be much of a carry over?

[agstar77]

Was exactly the same for most of us in 2021 , big rallies with no crop . But no one gave a crap about 80% of western Canada that had nearly no crop to sell . All anyone could do was demonize farmers about high prices when it did not matter to the vast majority of us

We also had a short crop in 21. Sold 90% of 22.