Russia ceases grain deal

[jazz]

macdon wasnt speculating short term on canola, he is watching the carryout inventory on all crops and its been shrinking for years.

When that convergence hits, the price upside could be explosive. The paper traders at the CME cant hide reality forever.

Show me one area in the world with a bin buster. There are problems everywhere this year.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Ab5
I'll have to walk the talk in this case ONLY and admit I cleaned out all my shitty Fd Wheat from 2016 in the above mention time period. Still shake my head at what I got.



As for Mcdon's canola forecast of $53.00/bu he never wagered the farm on it like you did. Besides if canola hit $50.00/bu you'd more than likely hold out for the $53.00/bu and if it didn't hit that you'd watch it go back to $20.00/bu.

Time for me to start knocking down the 2023 crop it's ready (TCB).

My hats off to you for the brilliant marketing move. That is impressive. You must be thanking your lucky stars the CWB was abolished by then, or that wouldn't have been possible. Did you already send the thank you cards to Stephen Harper and Gerry Ritz?

Since you won't share with the forum what the high will be this time, the least you can do is come back a year after the fact and call the high, rub my nose in it again, and announce that you sold the high with all of your production again. I expect no less.

You didn't ask about wheat, so I didn't respond. But since you asked, I was selling a few loads almost daily during that time period, carry over and new crop. I was busy with seeding, calving and sick with Covid, so I had to hire a custom trucker, I think I could have bought his truck with the bill. But it was well worth while. Unfortunately, instead of selling a few loads a day, I should have been selling 10 loads at a time.
As they say, every sale is wrong, either you sold too much, or not enough. With the notable exception of your sale of course, which was the correct quantity at the correct time and price. But every other sale that every other mortal makes is wrong. Every sale I made on the way up last spring was wrong, since I sold too much, and the sales I made at the top were wrong, because I didn't sell enough.

What is TCB? Are your grains ready to harvest, or forage seed?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Getting back on topic.
List of official requirements of Russia, the fulfillment of which will make it possible to resume the grain deal.

1. A real, not a speculative conclusion from the sanctions on the supply of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets.

2. All obstacles for Russian banks and financial institutions that serve the supply of food and fertilizers must be removed.

3. Deliveries to Russia of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery and the fertilizer industry should be resumed.

4. All issues with the charter of ships and insurance of Russian export food supplies must be resolved, all logistics of food supplies must be provided.

5. Unhindered conditions must be provided for expanding the supply of Russian fertilizers and raw materials for their production, including the restoration of the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline.

6. Russian assets related to the agricultural industry should be unlocked.

7. There must be a restoration of the original humanitarian nature of the grain deal. It should work for countries in need, not make rich countries richer."

In recent weeks, the list of demands has expanded from 5 to 7. The West looks extremely unlikely to fulfill them. Erdogan does not have the resources to influence the West on these issues. Therefore, the probability of extending the grain deal on the same terms is vanishingly small.

[blackpowder]

TCB
Taking Care of Business
in a Flash
Elvis trademark.
I got around it with my corporate name ....

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Ab5

and got called out by another poster other then myself for not selling it, so wear it, you earned it.

I remember now what you are referring to. Tweety was upset that I hadn't considered the time value of the capital invested in the grain in storage. Doubling the value of the capital, while the financing costs if any were needed were 0% cash advance, and the alternative (liquid) investment was putting it in the bank at a fraction of a percent interest. The grain is the investment, while waiting for farmland to come up for sale, the financing costs were 0. The grain appreciated much more than land did over that short period( our land values being tied mostly to the fortunes of the oil industry), and we eventually did find a couple of quarters to buy with the proceeds.

The reason why this is relevant, is that perhaps shouldn't have mentioned that you had the foresight to store your wheat for 6 years, without also discussing the time value of that money. Land prices went up a lot in 6 years, in your area, probably more than the grain did, not including the production from the land that could have been bought 6 years ago. You will have some explaining to do if Tweety reads this thread.

At a certain point this becomes similar to the discussions about old vehicles etc. Someone bought a new car in 1963 and stored it in their garage for 60 years, then sold it for $100,000's of thousands and people gush about what a wise investment that was. Except if you actually do the math, including the time value, it was a terrible investment compared to nearly anything else except cash.