Russia ceases grain deal

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Translated from German.
Ukrainian grain is so coveted because it explodes under rocket fire, creating a 100m high ball of flame. It apparently has unique properties.
By the way, after the grain agreement, the storage of weapons and ammunition in the ports was forbidden.
The problem Ukraine has is that they are trying to conduct a war on the territory where most inhabitants are more sympathetic to the Russian cause, but the converse is most certainly not true. Gives one side a huge advantage in the intelligence gathering field. Hard to keep a secret about where weapons are stored or fired from.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Never heard of Collin either until Jazz made me aware of him in one of his cut and pastes. He's very similar to Sara Conner and Verna Van Horne two other sources of Jazz.

Ab5 do a little research of your own regarding Jazz's and other poster's cut and pastes as well as their posts here on Agriville rather than blindly agreeing with them on everything.

The above mentioned three will provide "you" with all you need to know regarding the Ukrainian counter offensive.

I am in no way in favour of the unjustified invasion of Ukraine and what has happened to the Ukrainian people and the country. But, unlike you I at least know Putin is responsible for what has taken place in Ukraine and what will eventually happen to him. His bunker will not protect him forever.

Jazz mentions BRICs again, why isn't Putin attending the summit in South Africa in person if what he has done to Ukraine is justified? He should have nothing to fear.

So, you now made another prediction, but still haven't updated me as to what the MSM is telling you about the status of the counter offensive. I really would like to know, to understand how you have arrived at, and somehow maintain the fanatical position you have.
Personally, I don't rely on the propaganda coming from the media on either side, or the armchair generals on social media. We have contacts/ acquaintances on all sides of the conflict instead. As an added bonus, we had an interesting visit with a young couple from Moldova the other day to add to the diversity of sources.

As for predications on Putin's unjustified invasion of Ukraine I could never be as "bold' or have your imagination. The $53.00/bushel canola and the willingness to bet the farm on it all the while bragging about the bins being full of carry-over and watching record prices evaporate right in front of you, is the utmost.

Isn't canola $18/bu right now, that's a 3rd of your imaginary $53.00/bu, are you a taker or once again a watcher?

Thank you for bringing this topic up, I've been meaning to ask you for marketing advice. Since you called the spring 2022 top exactly to the day and to the penny with the benefit of hindsight only a scant few months after it happened, I'm hoping you can apply your 20/20 hindsight once again and tell me when to price my remaining unpriced grain. Time or price would be adequate. I have most of my wheat yet to move, a lot of canola yet to price, and some to move, and a bit of barley. I'd hate to not sell it all on the exact high, like you apparently are capable of. Last year I made the mistake of selling small increments every time the market went up, so I sold some at the highs, but unfortunately didn't sell every last bushel at the exact high. And in the end had to settle for only $20+ for the remainder of the canola which went in the bins at $10 instead of selling it all on the day it hit $27.

Currently, with a locked in basis, my price is back over $20, is this the high, or should I wait?

$53 isn't my number, it came from Macdon02. Almost 3 years ago now. still have more than 5 years to go to hit it. It got halfway to the $53 target. So it doesn't sound as crazy as it did at the time. From an old thread:
MacDon was the one who put out what sounded like crazy targets back in early October of 2021. $53 proportional was the ultimate number, from Socrates.1256 new resistance level, courtesy of the quant. I got the above listed 599 and 608 as buy levels. Also a $2356~ target, yes that's $53/bushel as resistance. 2356 popped up back in Late july and i thought it was full of shit, but the drought got worse, it hadn't really rained since, and inputs are getting more scarce. There's no time limit on it but in my opinion we are in a 8 yr drought lining up with the solar cycle and global cooling, the inverse or the flip side of the previous 10 year wet. Be very phucking careful pricing. Feb looks like closest turn point, expecting a high. This is a long ways from over. Only a monthly close under 599 would get me bearish. Somebody shut up the covid threads.... we got $ to make, the kind you retire on.
No specific timeline given, but I assume would be somewhere within the 8th year cycle he is referring to.

Perhaps he has already retired as he suggested he would?

[foragefarmer]

Ab5

"Thank you for bringing this topic up, I've been meaning to ask you for marketing advice. Since you called the spring 2022 top exactly to the day and to the penny with the benefit of hindsight only a scant few months after it happened, I'm hoping you can apply your 20/20 hindsight once again and tell me when to price my remaining unpriced grain. Time or price would be adequate. I have most of my wheat yet to move, a lot of canola yet to price, and some to move, and a bit of barley. I'd hate to not sell it all on the exact high, like you apparently are capable of. Last year I made the mistake of selling small increments every time the market went up, so I sold some at the highs, but unfortunately didn't sell every last bushel at the exact high. And in the end had to settle for only $20+ for the remainder of the canola which went in the bins at $10 instead of selling it all on the day it hit $27."




No mention of wheat prices so your bins are still full from past years.

July2022 MGEX Spring Wht contract was above $12.00/bus USA between May 5- June 14/2022 which is $16.00 Cdn. topping out at $14.00 USA and you didn't take advantage of this opportunity.

I'll have to walk the talk in this case ONLY and admit I cleaned out all my shitty Fd Wheat from 2016 in the above mention time period. Still shake my head at what I got.

You claim to be a Capitalist, Libertarian and are living in the free world, make your own shitty market decisions yourself. I emptied all my bins of 2022 crop last fall at never before seen prices and I'm happier than a pig in shit with no regrets even if it's higher this year. If you missed a 5-6 week period of getting $16.00 /bu Cdn for CWRS, I doubt you'd take anybody else's advise. Simple fact is your Greedy, so live with it.

You came on Agriville bragging about all your carry over and got called out by another poster other then myself for not selling it, so wear it, you earned it.


As for Mcdon's canola forecast of $53.00/bu he never wagered the farm on it like you did. Besides if canola hit $50.00/bu you'd more than likely hold out for the $53.00/bu and if it didn't hit that you'd watch it go back to $20.00/bu.

Time for me to start knocking down the 2023 crop it's ready (TCB).

Regarding my marketing comments, they are only directed towards AB5 and no other posters on Agriville.

[biglentil]

Get a life.

CBOT wheat up 8% overnight.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZM2qsG7fo/

[jazz]

macdon wasnt speculating short term on canola, he is watching the carryout inventory on all crops and its been shrinking for years.

When that convergence hits, the price upside could be explosive. The paper traders at the CME cant hide reality forever.

Show me one area in the world with a bin buster. There are problems everywhere this year.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Ab5
I'll have to walk the talk in this case ONLY and admit I cleaned out all my shitty Fd Wheat from 2016 in the above mention time period. Still shake my head at what I got.



As for Mcdon's canola forecast of $53.00/bu he never wagered the farm on it like you did. Besides if canola hit $50.00/bu you'd more than likely hold out for the $53.00/bu and if it didn't hit that you'd watch it go back to $20.00/bu.

Time for me to start knocking down the 2023 crop it's ready (TCB).

My hats off to you for the brilliant marketing move. That is impressive. You must be thanking your lucky stars the CWB was abolished by then, or that wouldn't have been possible. Did you already send the thank you cards to Stephen Harper and Gerry Ritz?

Since you won't share with the forum what the high will be this time, the least you can do is come back a year after the fact and call the high, rub my nose in it again, and announce that you sold the high with all of your production again. I expect no less.

You didn't ask about wheat, so I didn't respond. But since you asked, I was selling a few loads almost daily during that time period, carry over and new crop. I was busy with seeding, calving and sick with Covid, so I had to hire a custom trucker, I think I could have bought his truck with the bill. But it was well worth while. Unfortunately, instead of selling a few loads a day, I should have been selling 10 loads at a time.
As they say, every sale is wrong, either you sold too much, or not enough. With the notable exception of your sale of course, which was the correct quantity at the correct time and price. But every other sale that every other mortal makes is wrong. Every sale I made on the way up last spring was wrong, since I sold too much, and the sales I made at the top were wrong, because I didn't sell enough.

What is TCB? Are your grains ready to harvest, or forage seed?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Getting back on topic.
List of official requirements of Russia, the fulfillment of which will make it possible to resume the grain deal.

1. A real, not a speculative conclusion from the sanctions on the supply of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets.

2. All obstacles for Russian banks and financial institutions that serve the supply of food and fertilizers must be removed.

3. Deliveries to Russia of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery and the fertilizer industry should be resumed.

4. All issues with the charter of ships and insurance of Russian export food supplies must be resolved, all logistics of food supplies must be provided.

5. Unhindered conditions must be provided for expanding the supply of Russian fertilizers and raw materials for their production, including the restoration of the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline.

6. Russian assets related to the agricultural industry should be unlocked.

7. There must be a restoration of the original humanitarian nature of the grain deal. It should work for countries in need, not make rich countries richer."

In recent weeks, the list of demands has expanded from 5 to 7. The West looks extremely unlikely to fulfill them. Erdogan does not have the resources to influence the West on these issues. Therefore, the probability of extending the grain deal on the same terms is vanishingly small.

[blackpowder]

TCB
Taking Care of Business
in a Flash
Elvis trademark.
I got around it with my corporate name ....

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Ab5

and got called out by another poster other then myself for not selling it, so wear it, you earned it.

I remember now what you are referring to. Tweety was upset that I hadn't considered the time value of the capital invested in the grain in storage. Doubling the value of the capital, while the financing costs if any were needed were 0% cash advance, and the alternative (liquid) investment was putting it in the bank at a fraction of a percent interest. The grain is the investment, while waiting for farmland to come up for sale, the financing costs were 0. The grain appreciated much more than land did over that short period( our land values being tied mostly to the fortunes of the oil industry), and we eventually did find a couple of quarters to buy with the proceeds.

The reason why this is relevant, is that perhaps shouldn't have mentioned that you had the foresight to store your wheat for 6 years, without also discussing the time value of that money. Land prices went up a lot in 6 years, in your area, probably more than the grain did, not including the production from the land that could have been bought 6 years ago. You will have some explaining to do if Tweety reads this thread.

At a certain point this becomes similar to the discussions about old vehicles etc. Someone bought a new car in 1963 and stored it in their garage for 60 years, then sold it for $100,000's of thousands and people gush about what a wise investment that was. Except if you actually do the math, including the time value, it was a terrible investment compared to nearly anything else except cash.