Canola production estimates 2023 ..

[furrowtickler]

My guess is we will be much the same as 2021 … plus or minus 10%

[jdg364]

I’m going take the 21 and 22 crops and split it down the middle and say 32.54.. but just a guess at the moment.

[bucket]

Saskatchewan or Canada should have a tour like they do in the states and actually walk fields and count pods and seeds.

In this area the crop is way worse than 2021. Between the crop blueing and grasshoppers - way worse.

[Guest]

Saskatchewan or Canada should have a tour like they do in the states and actually walk fields and count pods and seeds.

In this area the crop is way worse than 2021. Between the crop blueing and grasshoppers - way worse.

They probably do
Just none of our business

[crusher]

I averaged 27 in 2021. I should be 50% above that this year. But it's a long way from the elevator.

[Sodbuster]

Haven’t done much traveling this year, we’re better than 21 but maybe 60% of last year so far. Thinking 31 bushels average, so about 15 million tonnes.

[BTO780]

Question really is, how many acres were seeded? I see a sea of yellow. Less pulses more canola. More acres can take care of lower yields. I do believe the crop will be poor. Yes, as always there are better areas. But, on the whole I think it’s better than 21, but only marginally.
I know of some who want put a combine in the field, going to leave it to catch snow. Then there’s some where it’s 5 bu.

[furrowtickler]

If things go good till after harvest , 27.4 add 10% and that will be 30.14.
Time will tell

Should be no frost on the next full moon but most likely by around august 30 . Most canola should make that one given the enhanced drought maturity this season.
So take frost out , add a few hailstorms yet and some wind damage, probably close to 29-30

If an unseen frost hits eastern Sask in mid month, will be less than 29

Lots of factors yet

[SASKFARMER]

I see some areas now getting lesss
Yield and with rain some improving if we don't get a shower yields will be less than last year's bumper. The last rain was over a week ago and it wasn't much.

From my travels, some are way way better than 2021 and some are way way worse. 30.1.

[Old Cowzilla]

That anteater looks in good shape I think mine was a lot quieter than the newer tractors I have in the yard now. Rain lottery again last night 1/4 inch in my yard but none in the pasture 2 miles down the road.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I think the 21 drought affected more of the areas which typically grow the most bushels of canola. Whereas this year's drought has spared some of those areas from the worst effects. Which leads me to believe that the total canola production may not be as reduced as the maps alone would indicate. With many notable exceptions of course.

[WiltonRanch]

I wouldn’t want to guess. Even this area which is as good as anywhere it looks to be an average to maybe above for some. But and I say but you don’t have to go far to see drought and hail has already impacted enough acres. There are though some real dandies out there. I’m going to go out on a limb and say 29 bpa.

[furrowtickler]

Will be interesting to see what Mr Bell has to say now ..
https://www.producer.com/markets/canola-production-estimates-questioned/

This comment along speaks to how out of touch most “experts” are ..


The vast majority never priced much because of 3-4 ft of zero subsoil moisture… that’s just the overhanging fact . But I guess if you don’t know how crops grow and need residual moisture in dry land farming I guess they simply don’t understand.

[BTO780]

IMO there was way more canola grown in the non traditional areas, those areas are the ones suffering, so production will be low even with the increased acres. The north can only really seed so much.

There is a drought can’t dispute that and markets are on a free fall. States talk about the drought building and markets are on the same steep slope downwards.

[jazz]

Funny how a missle into a grain silo half way around the world has more impact on canola prices than the actual crop burning up in front of the experts eyes.

Mr Market sure isnt concerned about production estimates yet.

This article says 33bu

https://www.producer.com/crops/its-c...nce-territory/

The global durum market needed 4.5 to five million tonnes of production out of Canada, but Burnett is forecasting 4.1 million tonnes and fears it could drop as low as 3.9 million.

“That’s going to have a substantial impact on the durum market,” he said.

There is huge demand for durum out of North Africa and Italy, yet today’s offers are below spring wheat values.

“That makes absolutely no sense in this type of scenario,” he said.

When asked if canola prices will return to last year’s lofty levels of $20 per bushel, Burnett said that will largely depend on the U.S. soybean crop. The forecast for the corn belt is for hot and dry conditions over the next few weeks.

“If their crop gets very much smaller, then I certainly could see vegetable oils rallying to the point where you would get canola in that $20 range.”