Canola production estimates 2023 ..

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I think the 21 drought affected more of the areas which typically grow the most bushels of canola. Whereas this year's drought has spared some of those areas from the worst effects. Which leads me to believe that the total canola production may not be as reduced as the maps alone would indicate. With many notable exceptions of course.

[WiltonRanch]

I wouldn’t want to guess. Even this area which is as good as anywhere it looks to be an average to maybe above for some. But and I say but you don’t have to go far to see drought and hail has already impacted enough acres. There are though some real dandies out there. I’m going to go out on a limb and say 29 bpa.

[furrowtickler]

Will be interesting to see what Mr Bell has to say now ..
https://www.producer.com/markets/canola-production-estimates-questioned/

This comment along speaks to how out of touch most “experts” are ..


The vast majority never priced much because of 3-4 ft of zero subsoil moisture… that’s just the overhanging fact . But I guess if you don’t know how crops grow and need residual moisture in dry land farming I guess they simply don’t understand.

[BTO780]

IMO there was way more canola grown in the non traditional areas, those areas are the ones suffering, so production will be low even with the increased acres. The north can only really seed so much.

There is a drought can’t dispute that and markets are on a free fall. States talk about the drought building and markets are on the same steep slope downwards.

[jazz]

Funny how a missle into a grain silo half way around the world has more impact on canola prices than the actual crop burning up in front of the experts eyes.

Mr Market sure isnt concerned about production estimates yet.

This article says 33bu

https://www.producer.com/crops/its-c...nce-territory/

The global durum market needed 4.5 to five million tonnes of production out of Canada, but Burnett is forecasting 4.1 million tonnes and fears it could drop as low as 3.9 million.

“That’s going to have a substantial impact on the durum market,” he said.

There is huge demand for durum out of North Africa and Italy, yet today’s offers are below spring wheat values.

“That makes absolutely no sense in this type of scenario,” he said.

When asked if canola prices will return to last year’s lofty levels of $20 per bushel, Burnett said that will largely depend on the U.S. soybean crop. The forecast for the corn belt is for hot and dry conditions over the next few weeks.

“If their crop gets very much smaller, then I certainly could see vegetable oils rallying to the point where you would get canola in that $20 range.”

[Guest]

Will be interesting to see what Mr Bell has to say now ..
https://www.producer.com/markets/canola-production-estimates-questioned/

This comment along speaks to how out of touch most “experts” are ..


The vast majority never priced much because of 3-4 ft of zero subsoil moisture… that’s just the overhanging fact . But I guess if you don’t know how crops grow and need residual moisture in dry land farming I guess they simply don’t understand.

And no one will school him on this fact

[tubs]

we need frost free here to end of september have areas in the field just starting to bloom if that makes it we would have a decent canola crop here,

[BTO780]

Only thing on the rise is fert, Urea went for $600 to $745. What a business we are in!

Time to call Saul ….. I mean Monette.

[Old Cowzilla]

Why would you lock in a contract when some guys still have LAST years contracts to fill ???????

[ajl]

I would go for the '21+ 10% so around 30. My canola started out thin in the dryness, got some cutworm damage. Finally got rain on June 14 and has filled in fairly well. It is now uneven and late and green seed will be an issue this fall as there is an early and late crop in the same field. We have got lots of rain so that we are now going backwards due to flooding. Some fields a bit further west have more flood damage than mine. Need warm, dry weather here now.