Yellow peas -

[LouiseCarduner]

Hey all,

Thanks for all your great replies and feedback.
I appreciate all of you sharing your thoughts.
Thank you!

I share all your feedback with the buyers

Thanks again and I hope everyone has a very safe harvest.

If anyone needs any help with grain pricing or information about grain programs available - feel free to email me at LetsGo@CanadasGrain.com or call or text at 431-734-7885. You can add me on SnapChat or WhatsApp too.

I am going on a three day crop tour - August 17-18-19 in MB - for those that are interested - I will post lots on Snap/TikTok/Twitter and WhatsApp.

Thanks again for all your comments and sharing your thoughts.
The great feedback I receive from farmers really helps me get better at my job!

Thanks,
Louise
www.CanadasGrain.com

[furrowtickler]

To be honest, really appreciate the info , and your replies to some negative responses
Yes $10 will be way too low , but you’re the messenger not the buyer .
Just let the buyers know if they would work for $7/hr ? Cause $10 is very low with a very poor crop coming in from 75% of western Canada .
Again thank you for you professional response 👍

[furrowtickler]

If anyone is interested ill buy all your peas for 10.25 picked up. Every last bushel.
Then when they are 14.50 in jan ill sell em to louise.

Just like I will buy all you canola for $17 and wheat for $10
Things will change once the reality of this crop comes in

[BTO780]

Just like I will buy all you canola for $17 and wheat for $10
Things will change once the reality of this crop comes in

In 2021 reality was already here. There isn’t much of difference from that yr till now. Talked to one farmer the other day, he will be done in two wks.

In some cases Sep long wk end will be busier than the this past one at some lakes.

Some are not taking the combine out hoping hail still comes.

If this isn’t reality ….. not sure what is.

[ajl]

Around here (east of Edmonton) pea yields going down due to parts of the field being under water. Forecast calling for lots of rain this week. Anybody want it?

[BreadWinner]

No offence to Louise she definitely can read the room and Im pretty sure most grain buyers will be figuring it out soon. I wonder how many contracts will have to be bought out this year?

[BTO780]

No offence to Louise she definitely can read the room and Im pretty sure most grain buyers will be figuring it out soon. I wonder how many contracts will have to be bought out this year?

Wouldn’t have guys learnt from the 21 fiasco?

[bucket]

Wouldn’t have guys learnt from the 21 fiasco?

One would think so, but some guys have never witnessed a drought and never watched a crop germinate perfectly only to wither away.

[dave4441]

I hesitate to comment but there are two sides to this yellow pea market. Acreage is down about 10% and was down a similar amount last year. I don't have a handle on yield yet but it somewhere around 30 bushel per acre in my opinion.

In 2021 USA had very little pea production and the pet food demand and frac demand came to Canada. That isn't the case this year as they have a reasonable crop at the front end of the marketing year anyway. The other issue is Chinese demand is poor. In 2021 there was short covering for sales already headed to China sold say winter 2020/21 and covered in summer 21/fall 2021 after production was short. China is our largest buyer of yellow peas, or at least was traditionally. Russia is now suppling them. Cheaply. This is also new and was not the case in 2021. Note India was also a bit demand sink and they are now virtually zero for last 5 years. To my knowledge there is very very little bulk vessel business to China this fall and this limited demand will also tamper bullishness in the pea market. Remember in the past yellow pea demand to China was as high as 2.3 Million MT in 2020 crop and 1.2 Million MT this past crop year ending last week. This year likely lower again. They prefer our quality but price wins in many cases.

I think growers will NOT chase to sell at $10/bushel (but there are some sellers now at these values) but the demand side is not great story either. This can go either way but I have zero confidence this will rally to the $17-18 we seen in 2021 either. Zero.

Note the official stats show we carried into this crop year about 500,000 MT from last year as growers didn't feel the price matched there target. This doesn't help either. I could spitball total demand at 1.5 MMT and we are carrying in a 1/3 of that.

This all can change over time and likely will. But as a snapshot today its hard to get bullish when you look at the facts in front of us.

[furrowtickler]

Unfortunate situation for sure , 30 bus or less at $10 is losing money on every acre for most farms
Cost to grow peas have doubled the past decade
No longer cheap to grow anymore

[bucket]

Isn't it great that we send money to Ukraine and Russia steals the pea market. A few years ago we had a triffid issue in flax due to our plant breeders and lost that market to Khakistan.

We really are a bunch of dip$hits. We deserve what we get.

It could be just that I am in a $hit mood today .

[Rareearth]

I wonder how anyone knows the true demand side of the market when there is no export sales reporting system ?