Yellow peas -

[BTO780]

Just like I will buy all you canola for $17 and wheat for $10
Things will change once the reality of this crop comes in

In 2021 reality was already here. There isn’t much of difference from that yr till now. Talked to one farmer the other day, he will be done in two wks.

In some cases Sep long wk end will be busier than the this past one at some lakes.

Some are not taking the combine out hoping hail still comes.

If this isn’t reality ….. not sure what is.

[ajl]

Around here (east of Edmonton) pea yields going down due to parts of the field being under water. Forecast calling for lots of rain this week. Anybody want it?

[BreadWinner]

No offence to Louise she definitely can read the room and Im pretty sure most grain buyers will be figuring it out soon. I wonder how many contracts will have to be bought out this year?

[BTO780]

No offence to Louise she definitely can read the room and Im pretty sure most grain buyers will be figuring it out soon. I wonder how many contracts will have to be bought out this year?

Wouldn’t have guys learnt from the 21 fiasco?

[bucket]

Wouldn’t have guys learnt from the 21 fiasco?

One would think so, but some guys have never witnessed a drought and never watched a crop germinate perfectly only to wither away.

[dave4441]

I hesitate to comment but there are two sides to this yellow pea market. Acreage is down about 10% and was down a similar amount last year. I don't have a handle on yield yet but it somewhere around 30 bushel per acre in my opinion.

In 2021 USA had very little pea production and the pet food demand and frac demand came to Canada. That isn't the case this year as they have a reasonable crop at the front end of the marketing year anyway. The other issue is Chinese demand is poor. In 2021 there was short covering for sales already headed to China sold say winter 2020/21 and covered in summer 21/fall 2021 after production was short. China is our largest buyer of yellow peas, or at least was traditionally. Russia is now suppling them. Cheaply. This is also new and was not the case in 2021. Note India was also a bit demand sink and they are now virtually zero for last 5 years. To my knowledge there is very very little bulk vessel business to China this fall and this limited demand will also tamper bullishness in the pea market. Remember in the past yellow pea demand to China was as high as 2.3 Million MT in 2020 crop and 1.2 Million MT this past crop year ending last week. This year likely lower again. They prefer our quality but price wins in many cases.

I think growers will NOT chase to sell at $10/bushel (but there are some sellers now at these values) but the demand side is not great story either. This can go either way but I have zero confidence this will rally to the $17-18 we seen in 2021 either. Zero.

Note the official stats show we carried into this crop year about 500,000 MT from last year as growers didn't feel the price matched there target. This doesn't help either. I could spitball total demand at 1.5 MMT and we are carrying in a 1/3 of that.

This all can change over time and likely will. But as a snapshot today its hard to get bullish when you look at the facts in front of us.

[furrowtickler]

Unfortunate situation for sure , 30 bus or less at $10 is losing money on every acre for most farms
Cost to grow peas have doubled the past decade
No longer cheap to grow anymore

[bucket]

Isn't it great that we send money to Ukraine and Russia steals the pea market. A few years ago we had a triffid issue in flax due to our plant breeders and lost that market to Khakistan.

We really are a bunch of dip$hits. We deserve what we get.

It could be just that I am in a $hit mood today .

[Rareearth]

I wonder how anyone knows the true demand side of the market when there is no export sales reporting system ?

[dave4441]

I wonder how anyone knows the true demand side of the market when there is no export sales reporting system ?

Every MT of export from Canada is documented and is public knowledge. That's the only thing that is reasonably accurate. We know the demand side.

[LWeber]

Every MT of export from Canada is documented and is public knowledge. That's the only thing that is reasonably accurate. We know the demand side.

We know the demand side - you might - but farmers don't.

You should be on more boards and committees to help everything change for the better and to ensure that farmers are on the same knowledge level as exporters.

With no export sales reporting program - you rely on shipping - not sales for a demand picture?

Of the 200,000 tonnes of new crop pea sales made to date; when were the sales made? How the fk do you know the demand side unless there is collusion with your competition? If this country had 10% of the balls that the US has when it comes to antitrust laws; you wouldn't answer phone calls from your competition.

The last sale of export canola was made last week in August 2023; with shipment for March 2024 and your accurate documentation will take place in May, 2024 - 10 months after the fact.

Why shouldn't farmers know that?

[blackpowder]

Larry.
I was going to start a new thread with this very question.
I myself don't know the facts. Most I discuss this with know/care zero about it. Others tell me it is all reported so what's the problem? (Buyers)
I would like to have conversations with the right knowledge in my grasp. So without a Google search by me, and a thesis article by you; could we somehow have a bullet point of what we do and should have? Maybe others know as well.

[dave4441]

We know the demand side - you might - but farmers don't.

You should be on more boards and committees to help everything change for the better and to ensure that farmers are on the same knowledge level as exporters.

With no export sales reporting program - you rely on shipping - not sales for a demand picture?

Of the 200,000 tonnes of new crop pea sales made to date; when were the sales made? How the fk do you know the demand side unless there is collusion with your competition? If this country had 10% of the balls that the US has when it comes to antitrust laws; you wouldn't answer phone calls from your competition.

The last sale of export canola was made last week in August 2023; with shipment for March 2024 and your accurate documentation will take place in May, 2024 - 10 months after the fact.

Why shouldn't farmers know that?

Should farmers have to supply weekly sales data and price? Maybe everyone in the chain should supply this info. As a farmer i would disagree with that. Why wouldn't I disagree as we buyer.

Lets face it, when talking about peas or lentils or canary, etc USA doesn't supply this sales data either.

Why is it no Canadian market analyst talks about the USA sales data? I hear nothing about it ever.

[LWeber]

Should farmers have to supply weekly sales data and price? Maybe everyone in the chain should supply this info. As a farmer i would disagree with that. Why wouldn't I disagree as we buyer.

Lets face it, when talking about peas or lentils or canary, etc USA doesn't supply this sales data either.

Why is it no Canadian market analyst talks about the USA sales data? I hear nothing about it ever.

Farmers across western Canada already provide monthly price information.
No one is asking for export prices - just sales...

[dave4441]

Farmers across western Canada already provide monthly price information.
No one is asking for export prices - just sales...

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Who actually supplies this? I am a farmer and never even heard about it.