Durum

[fcr]

What’s with $15.50 bu for durum ,and cwrs at 9.Watch durum acres explode next year.

[bucket]

Might have to to get the required production to fill demand and what looks like a shortage of supply 2023.

In other words the carryover should be zero by July 2024.

[13stripe]

Yield and quality (weight) will result in a smaller crop then needed. Poor crops overseas, increasing demand.

[jazz]

MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett was forecasting a national average durum yield of 26 bu. per acre at his July 19 presentation at the Ag in Motion show.


That would be down from the previous five-year average of 37.3 bu. per acre (excluding the 2021 drought year).

Burnett was forecasting total Canadian production of 4.09 million tonnes, down 25 percent from last year.

But Leguee, who is vice-chair of the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission, said the crop has further deteriorated since Burnett’s presentation.

He thinks the production number will start with a three, although it will likely be higher than the 3.2 million tonnes produced in 2021.

There hasn’t been as much heat as there was in 2021 when temperatures reached 28 C or higher for 25 days in July on his farm. This year that happened three times.

“That will mitigate some of the damage,” he said.

[Flatlander9]

Where are you seeing $15.50 durum? 14.60 is as high as it is in the Regina area

[helmach]

just seen a 14.75 at watrous ph

[BTO780]

Where are you seeing $15.50 durum? 14.60 is as high as it is in the Regina area

That’s because that’s the only place where the durum is half good.
Had a call today guy asking me my thoughts on durum. All I said we will talk when it hits $20
Told him my prediction is 3.3

All these countries can go ahead and mix this, substitute that, eventually they will have to buy the good stuff.

Be like me having to drink Weisers cuz it’s cheaper, sooner or later I will spend the money and drink Crown. Lol 😂

[zeefarmer]

What’s with $15.50 bu for durum ,and cwrs at 9.Watch durum acres explode next year.

You obviously aren't aware of the drought in the Canadian durum growing area. Some, not all, is as bad as 2021.

And there's a bunch that's ready that will be targeted by the rain forecasted Sun-Tues and will be downgraded. They also want 62 lbs/bus or 400 g/hl, and there won't be much of that around. Heard of some at 56 lbs

[ajl]

To be fair poverty grass (wheat) is bid at just over $10 in the Edmonton region for a #2 13.5. Trouble will be that all wheat will grade feed this year. Got another inch of rain yesterday and areas that had a thunder storm got more. May need tracks for the combine. Not sure they exist for an older machine like mine. Brother in west central SK harvested durum running 22-23 bu/ac this past week according to his cart scale. Quite amazing considering there was no rain there.

[helmach]

what's your guys thoughts on the flax direction? Much of a stand or crop out there?

[furrowtickler]

what's your guys thoughts on the flax direction? Much of a stand or crop out there?

Flax should rally a lot . Limited acres and will be poor crop what is out there

[furrowtickler]

You obviously aren't aware of the drought in the Canadian durum growing area. Some, not all, is as bad as 2021.

And there's a bunch that's ready that will be targeted by the rain forecasted Sun-Tues and will be downgraded. They also want 62 lbs/bus or 400 g/hl, and there won't be much of that around. Heard of some at 56 lbs

You bring up a very valid point on grades.
Top grade Durum could hit $20 , but how much will make top grade ?
Same as hrsw , grade spreads will be large.
The few places that do have big crop it is going to get weathered .

[GALAXIE500]

My harvest down here is down to the last 80 acres, and of that only 20 will be cut. Grasshoppers , and drought have made this year as bad as 2021. High yield was 8 bpa , and a low of 5 bpa.

20 dollar durum would be great if I harvested a 30 bushel crop. Second time in three years to see record prices , and it is a small consolation for terrible yield.

Getting tired of this , and also getting VERY tired of hearing every f&*%ing news outlet talk about climate change!

Anybody ever talk about "cycles in weather" anymore?

[wmoebis]

What is the quality in other countries? Except for niche markets our top quality is for blending. If customers have good quality they may not need ours as much as we think.
One AWC rep said that feed wheat was worth more than #1 in Lethbridge.

[BTO780]

At 5.7 mil acres and 22 bu crop it’s 3.4 mmt.
Trade will argue it’s bigger than 22, whatever the case it’s going to be no where what first thought.

Tests weights are bad from guys to have taken stuff already. It’s mid Aug it can’t be good.

Then again we as farmers don’t no what we are talking about.