Durum

[furrowtickler]

My harvest down here is down to the last 80 acres, and of that only 20 will be cut. Grasshoppers , and drought have made this year as bad as 2021. High yield was 8 bpa , and a low of 5 bpa.

20 dollar durum would be great if I harvested a 30 bushel crop. Second time in three years to see record prices , and it is a small consolation for terrible yield.

Getting tired of this , and also getting VERY tired of hearing every f&*%ing news outlet talk about climate change!

Anybody ever talk about "cycles in weather" anymore?

Absolutely agree , and it’s a huge huge area much the same as you unfortunately. Even our Sask ag minister obviously has zero clue . I drove all through SW Sask and SE Alberta at the end of July . It was 90 % dismal . Feel sorry for all in that area . But it extends north to hiway 14 and east past Davidson and in many other areas as well .
Now the few good areas are going to be wet.
Low of plus 3 here tonight, which means zero outside the city limits .
It frustrating to see and hear all the rage in the industry and media about “record prices” when you have very little to even sell . Two years ago we had very very little to sell into a great canola market after contracts .
It’s irritating at times , some experts , and armchair experts belittle those with contracts that year . Then this past spring the same “experts” were belittling again for not taking contracts for higher prices this spring .
You have to get to a point and just smile, shake your head and walk away, cause 90% of them never have grown a crop in their life , let alone try to manage it during the growing season , harvest it , store it , haul it …….. then manage the finances behind the scenes. But they are sure quick to judge why you did not sell what you did not have at record prices .
The most common line I heard was “Ya but those grain prices sure are great “
for many again this year it will be like winning $10 in a million dollar lotto .
Enough to get another ticket is all .

[bucket]

The federal ag minister came to Saskatchewan and couldn't even pay the ranchers in the south west of Saskatchewan and the lower half of Alberta a courtesy trip to see how bad it is for some .

[furrowtickler]

The federal ag minister came to Saskatchewan and couldn't even pay the ranchers in the south west of Saskatchewan and the lower half of Alberta a courtesy trip to see how bad it is for some .

Sadly they don’t care , they want to kill the livestock industry by blaming cow farts for fires and drought .

[furrowtickler]

What’s with $15.50 bu for durum ,and cwrs at 9.Watch durum acres explode next year.

I expect flax , oats and a few other crops with very low production this year to meet 2021 prices
10% of farmers will cash in , 90% will be on the sidelines with poor crops …… much like 2021

[bucket]

Sadly they don’t care , they want to kill the livestock industry by blaming cow farts for fires and drought .

Read the letter from the SCA. Promoting irrigation won't help the cattle guy, just give those that are gifted wealth in irrigation the money to buy the cattle guys flat land out and make it cropland.

The cow calf guy is heading for extinction. The statistics say that what is happening. Average age is 60 plus and no young guys coming back to earn less that a Walmart greeter for 365 work.

[jazz]

The federal ag minister came to Saskatchewan and couldn't even pay the ranchers in the south west of Saskatchewan and the lower half of Alberta a courtesy trip to see how bad it is for some .

Bucket, $40B has been given to EV plants, but I would still rather harvest a 5 bu crop for the rest of my life than have any of those retards from Trudeaus govt even come a within a mile of my farm.

They arent going to help you, just add you to the list of climate change deniers and heap it all on this industry next.

[furrowtickler]

Read the letter from the SCA. Promoting irrigation won't help the cattle guy, just give those that are gifted wealth in irrigation the money to buy the cattle guys flat land out and make it cropland.

The cow calf guy is heading for extinction. The statistics say that what is happening. Average age is 60 plus and no young guys coming back to earn less that a Walmart greeter for 365 work.

Yup , Monnette just bought a whack of land in that area . Sadly you are very correct

[bucket]

Yup , Monnette just bought a whack of land in that area . Sadly you are very correct

It's a good thing he has cattle.

They silaged the canola. And will have to graze the barley.

[wmoebis]

It's a good thing he has cattle.

They silaged the canola. And will have to graze the barley.

Wonder if they operate everything under ONE name or how much/many interest free cash advances and Million $ low interest loans they get? Tax payers picking up the tab for interest and loan $ until it is paid back.

[shtferbrains]

This is 2 weeks old but does show how important the Canadian Durum crop is on world markets.

https://agupdate.com/farmandranchguide/markets/crop/durum-prices-around-the-region-surge-prior-to-harvest/article_cd42e9d8-3143-11ee-bb1c-cb072a51b5e6.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twi tter&utm_campaign=user-share

"
Specifically, she said market focus has really turned to Canada where crop condition ratings have really declined the past few weeks. The weather in Canada has been hot and dry. In fact, only 16 percent of the crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition in Saskatchewan and over half is rated poor-to-very poor. In Alberta, 30 percent is rated in good-to-excellent condition.

“The official estimates still have higher production compared to last year in Canada. Those range from 195 million bushels to 210 million bushels,” she said. “But a recent crop tour there pegged production way down at 150 million. I think the market is reacting to that estimate.

“Obviously, this is concerning. Canada is the largest world durum exporter, so there will be a lot of focus on what happens up there,” she added."

[13stripe]

Doubt crop report on the 29th will reduce yield far enough to reflect what is being harvested. My guess is under 20.

[LEP]

Doubt crop report on the 29th will reduce yield far enough to reflect what is being harvested. My guess is under 20.

I agree, it usually takes until the December report for them to finally acknowledge a poor crop.

[Rareearth]

In a drought durum yields are less than spring wheat, it’s a weaker plant.

[jazz]

'Watch out pasta lovers' as drought slashes Canada durum output
21 Aug 2023 | Mark Shenk
The mounting drought conditions in Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta is expected to severely hamper durum wheat production in the country and should lead the government to trim production forecasts, market participants have told Agricensus Monday.

"Watch out pasta lovers; what appeared this spring [to be] a planted acreage capable of supporting maybe 5.5 million mt of production, has deteriorated significantly," said Mike Jubinville, a senior market analyst at MarketsFarm.

"In July, we were forecasting a durum crop of 4.1 million mt, but are currently in the process of trimming that number to below 4 million mt, maybe in the 3.7 to 3.9 million mt area," Jubinville said.

"The trade is likely thinking Canada's crop size is 4-4.5 million metric tons," another Canadian analyst said.

While durum wheat is more drought resistant than other wheat varieties, crop conditions are suffering in prime growing areas in southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, which have been experiencing unusually hot and dry weather since May.

"There’s been some light showers in southwest Saskatchewan and southern Alberta over the past week, but that is far too late to help - in fact, it hurts as harvest is well underway," Jubinville said.

"There is potential for quality downgrades with the recent rains on any crop still standing," Jubinville added.

The Canadian government pegged the 2023/24 durum harvest at 5.695 million mt, up from the prior crop year's 5.443 million mt, in a July 21 report.

During the severe 2021 drought, the country harvested 3.03 million mt, according to government data.

Statistics Canada will release its first crop estimates on August 29.

The price of Canadian durum has surged because of concerns about the crop, leaving 14.5% FOB Vancouver cargoes at $500/mt, up 43% from $350/mt in late June, while St Lawrence cargoes are $510/mt, up 42% from $360 in late June.

Canada is the world’s biggest durum producer and exporter, with Saskatchewan responsible for 77% of Canada’s durum production in 2022 while Alberta was responsible for the vast majority of the remainder.