markets

[Landdownunder]

Why is it that canola seemingly reacts to fundamentals and trends follow fundamentals?

Wheat in particular has no rhyme or reason or methodology?

[helmach]

cbot manipulated market

[wheatking16]

Why is it that canola seemingly reacts to fundamentals and trends follow fundamentals?

Wheat in particular has no rhyme or reason or methodology?

Both seem highly technical to me.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Both seem highly technical to me.

Do you tune out all fundamentals?

[wheatking16]

Do you tune out all fundamentals?

Yes.

I only trust the price.

[TOM4CWB]

Dry Hot Weather forecast for Midwest:



Precipitation over the next week:



Precipitation Forecasts:




Markets bouncing up today… world economy is sputtering… crude oil down…

Bloomberg had an interesting conversation about the Chinese economy…. They spent 3.9x the currency during the pandemic… but lent out over 8x more currency to the domestic population…Chinese trust companies are not required to properly account for delinquent loans… understating bad debts and over stating profits… Trust deposits are on set terms so only can be withdrawn on maturity… will probably end up in Chinese Banks backed by sovereign Chinese government policies… a very long way from resolving their domestic problems.

Chinese Demand for US grain down 70% from last year … without market demand from China…. A large grain supply drop… will be needed for significantly higher grain prices to occur… given the slowing global economy….

Blessings and Wisdom

[furrowtickler]

Will be interesting to watch canola crusher bids the next two weeks .
Only drought stressed canola crops will be available with very low yields the next 14-20 days
All the decent canola crop in limited areas not even ready to swath quite yet .
There will be very very limited canola available for at least 3 weeks now .
Also price spreads in cereals will be on the watch list . Good hrsw and barley in the bin should hold value very well now . Crop quality will be an issue when harvest resumes in many areas.
Drought areas have several stages and that will hurt grades , that’s just a product of years like this , no fun for the buyers or sellers .
Quality should pay decent, but it will be a game of chicken now .
Local elevator has a 100 car spot train coming for wheat next week , they were anticipating an “early” harvest . They are very short and are only at $9.60 ….. that will not get one bushel from the few farms that have nice wheat in the bin already , not even close

[Freightshaker]

If prices stay where they are, would have been better harvesting no crop at all.

[Blaithin]

Will be interesting to watch canola crusher bids the next two weeks .
Only drought stressed canola crops will be available with very low yields the next 14-20 days
All the decent canola crop in limited areas not even ready to swath quite yet .
There will be very very limited canola available for at least 3 weeks now .
Also price spreads in cereals will be on the watch list . Good hrsw and barley in the bin should hold value very well now . Crop quality will be an issue when harvest resumes in many areas.
Drought areas have several stages and that will hurt grades , that’s just a product of years like this , no fun for the buyers or sellers .
Quality should pay decent, but it will be a game of chicken now .
Local elevator has a 100 car spot train coming for wheat next week , they were anticipating an “early” harvest . They are very short and are only at $9.60 ….. that will not get one bushel from the few farms that have nice wheat in the bin already , not even close

Had to chuckle as I read this and then went for a drive and actually seen a canola swath!


But yes, canola is still waayyy out here. Even in the hard hit areas. Only just seeing it swathed east of the river.

[furrowtickler]

It won’t be funny to lose $1/bus or more on cereals when they get downgraded . Been there before and that comes right off the net returns.
2004 was a perfect example, 50 bus feed wheat worth nothing and zero crop insurance being above yield coverage. That hurt bad after two years of drought . Those 3-4 years wiped out a lot of farms in this area . Took us another 4 years to recover from 2000-2004 time period .
Made most of us here very lean and cautious, those of us from that time still kicking today are still quite cautious compared to those who came up after 2005 . Big difference in mentality of risk management.
Time will tell on spreads in cereals but hrsw will most likely get wide in the next 2 weeks . Just glad we have 1/2 hrsw off and in bin. Will stay that way for some bargaining power .
$9.60 for good hrsw is like working for $10 / hr , even students would not do it , nor would anyone at an elevator.
Inflation can’t be a one way street . We are at near double to grow a crop compared to the early 2000’s .
We are just starting to swath / spray the last 1/3 of our canola . And we are “early” in this area .
Regardless , we are keeping fingers crossed 🤞 that the price holds cause canola yields will be below average in many areas and far below last year.
Some big empty swaths out there from earlier canola.


Simply too many areas like this in every field .
Wheat faired better , but quality will be absolutely key