8.000 MMT Canola Crop

[rain]

Charlie do you think we are in line for a 8.000 MMT canola crop this year?

[rain]

Charlie I read this morning that china is setting higher standards for bean oil imports. these new standards would make it impossible for South American bean oil sale to china with out revamping current crushing techniques. Could this help us out this year.

[charliep]

The highest average canola yield occurred in 2000 (26.5 bu/acre). Would have to exceed this yield by over 1 bu/acre. I will leave for farmers to comment on crop conditions.

Have not heard about China's policy. Will keep my ears open. A note is China is notorious for trying to talk the market down. A note is they have significant requirements for oil and meal that need to be met somewhere. Hopefully, Canadian companies are able to put some good fall sales on to allow good canola movement off the combine. Ability to turn something into cash this fall will be critical - particularly if the border doesn't open for cattle and farmers decide to background more calves.

[rain]

Charlie in 2002-03 alberta Agriculture, food & Rural development has a posted Canola yield of 26.1 Bushels/Acre. AAFC has a yield posted at 1.28T/HA or 22.85 T/Acre but the same carryout. Acres are different as well.

[cowman]

Rain whatever? The fact is there is a whole lot of canola around this year and the crop looks SUPER! Now maybe that is from a local perspective from central Alberta...but I suspect those crops are going to ROCK!
I would suspect we will have a way above average crop? Just hope the price stays up and some guys can make a few bucks!
By the way my crop share deal is all in barley this year! What can you do...you've got to rotate!(hoping for malt!)

[rain]

You want to know whatever cowman. Their is a lot of free relevant information available for producers to help them to make sound marketing decisions. Grain and oilseed marketing is a lot of history thrown in with forecasting the future. We need to know where we have been in order to know where we are going.

You could have booked some of your maybe malt for 2.93 FOB bin Red Deer last winter for this fall pick up. Instead you are looking at maybe $2.83 for your maybe malt a year and a half from now.

I am curious to know what the yields for canola were that year so when I read or hear raw numbers being thrown around I can make informed decisions.

What ever!

[charliep]

My yields are based off harvested area (not sure what AAFC is using). In 2002, crops that looked ugly (or close to ugly) were written with the impact of what was harvested actually yielded not bad. Hopefully AAFC and my production numbers are the same (should come from the same source).

[charliep]

Thought I would post to see if any others have new thoughts about canola production. The 8 MMT is out there much anymore as an industry estimate but still possible if everything goes 100 % right this fall. 7.5 MMT is a more likely average of industry expectations. There are some who would push to 7 MMT but they are the pessimists.

Just a note it doesn't really matter which of the numbers it is. Soybeans/oilseed product markets are way more important. Canola will still have to work hard to build market share among oilseeds.

[dnach]

charliep, call me a pessimist, but after this past week, 7mmt will be tough to make, and no.1 supplies will be sigificantly reduced. It was just a matter of time, this crop was too good.