Watch the Loonie

[charliep]

Just a note to highlight today's higher loonie. Bank of Canada is expected to increase interest rate by a quarter percent. Technically, the loonie looks close to a breakout point higher (at least to my eyes). Others thoughts.

[crusher]

Appears the dollar is at the uppper end of an ascending channel. I must get out of my September hedge and I'm not sure whether to take the profits or roll to another month. Might need the cash if I don't get some crop in the bin. If farming was easy - everybody would be doing it RIGHT?

[melvill]

crusher, I'm going to go out on a limb regarding your Canuck buck hedge and I'm going to assume you're long.

A while ago I took a technical analysis course sponsored by Market Master and resourced by Larry Martin from the George Morris Centre. Believe it or not, I'm starting to believe in this stuff!!! Larry did an excellent job of presenting technical analysis from a hedgers point of view. (I know - shameful plug.)

I think Sep 04 support is at .77 (not really very strong) then at .76, then at .755 stronger, then at .75 even.
Dec support slightly different but clearly visible - in my mind anyway - on the chart.

My suggestion depending on where you got in and what month you hold - place sell stop at .7690 or .7545 on close only.

Now that should start a debate. What you all say?

[charliep]

Just a note to high a buy the rumor/sell the fact day. Dollar opened down hard early and has regained some of the losses.

Just to add some spice to the discussion, I will put my self on the side of the loonie bulls. I think we will see 78 cent loonie before a 77 cent one.

[crusher]

I was long September as a hedge from spring and got out today. "The trend is your friend" and that is up. I will probably get back in on a retracement.

I'm going to lift my canola hedges if November closes in on $340. I know you can't ignore the global picture, but with minimal visible supplies and a constantly deteriorating crop, I think the $340 area should hold support - time will tell.

With feedgrains I'm like a deer in the headlights. There is going to be mountains of feedgrains domestically, but is it all going to get harvested this calendar year? With depressed prices and high drying fuel costs, how many guys are going to spent 25 cents a bushel to dry $1.75 barley.