Where are we going?

[pilllypilsner]

As my favorite no armed man Alvin Law likes to say at my favorite televized charity-we are going higher!!!What am i talking about....COMMODITIES!!!!Oil surpassing 50$ a barrel,copper,gold, uranium,etc,etc-this all bodes well for food grains which In MY Opinion(IMO) are possibly the most undersold. Macroeconomics can be confusing to about 99% of people(like mechanics and spelling are to me)but is just as important as anything else-except plumbing,keeping the shit flowing is umero uno .But seriouslly currencies,
interest rates,bonds,inflation,deflation
trade balance,gold,current accounts,
deficits,surplusses,supply/demand,
fundimental analyisis,technical analisis
and other things all impact you more than you can imagine.Someday(IMO) farming will get good again.Being from the Generation X i'm to young to remember pre-1983 farming.I would love to here some stories in the time period
of 1971-1983.From what i read this was the time of the great commoditie bull market.After `83 came the biggest(and I can prove this)bear market in commodities ever recorded in human history.It seems that some people want to stop talking about the CWB.This is wrong.Devisive issues need to be debated
in an open constructive enviroment where both sides are heard and understood.Lets pretend we are all on the same side.I`ve spent 15 years on and off thinking about CWB but i`m still
on the fence.But I do smell a rat.IF you are apart of a monoply you are in a strong possition-think microsoft-assuming the monoply is truly working in your interest.If farmers ever started
working together-look out world.
But enough rambling i am long and strong
on farming and everything else conductive.good luck and good fortune.

-Pilly

[cowman]

One thing about commodities...what goes up usually comes down? Oil would be a good example? It got pretty high, which spurred more production and exploration, and lately it has been on the way down?
Or take wheat as an example? If you can't make any money on it, then no one will grow it, they'll try to grow something else and thus create a shortage of wheat, which in turn creates a higher price?
Whenever you have some sort of interference that distorts the free market of supply and demand you throw the whole thing out of whack? For example the high EU and American subsidies? Or for that matter the CWB? How can you possibly expect to compete with the European farmer who gets more money in the form of a subsidy than you get for your wheat?
The true fact of the matter is the European public puts a value on their farmers as keepers of the rural landscape...and pays them accordingly! The Canadian public might get a warm fuzzy feeling about the peasants but don't intend to let that interfere with their right to buy food at bargain basement prices! SUVs,massive houses, exotic vacations, and all the toys cost money you know? I doubt that the average Canadian would want to give that up so you can make a decent living farming?

[TOM4CWB]

Cowman;

I was at Wildrose Ag Producers.

Interesting little tidbit.

I believe since 1995, Canada's support for Agriculture has dropped some 8 billion, or 45%.

In the US, support has increased 20%.

THIS has little to do with the standard of life of our urban cousins.

It has everything to do with western Canadians paying for central Canada to have life on easy street, particularily those in Quebec... including Agriculture in Quebec.

I do not want the government to support me personally... but instead the "level playing field" of a commitment to fairly support western communities the same way Ottawa supports Quebec rural communities.

Is not the least we should expect and request?


Snowed under grain.

Many farmers are going bankrupt... while crop insurance/Ab Ag has access to Billions.

Why?

Spring threshed grain (2005) CANNOT enter the elevator system operating on ISO standards. Deer, Goose, Mouse, Wildlife biohazard excrement has recked this grain, thousand upon thousands of deer etc. roam daily... feasting at Her Majesty's pleasure.

In 2005, can't we as farmers (in one voice) all at least request the government give fair timely compensation for our brother and sisters in the Tusami disaster we had right here in Alberta?

Why have these farmers not been paid out yet; at wildlife rates, spot coverage outside of crop insurance?

[ianben]

Blame, blame, blame

US EU subsidies, Quebec, deer and geese, crop insurance, CWB or is it STE,
BSE, packers etc etc.

Thats where we farmers seem to be forever going blaming others because the playing field is not level. It never was and never will be!

I have great respect for both Tom and Cowman but blaming others wether right or wrong does not seem to be helping us move forward.

Supply is what dictates price, as we have all agreed in the past, so is there any way we can better control what we produce and more importantly sell.

Again I will mention the internet

Can we harness this incedible method of comunication to our mutual advantage as farmers round the world seem to have the same problem with commodity prices.

There has been much talk in this new year of old topics and no solutions.

Give it some thought!

We to could be global. Bigger than any multi national yet still independant; just more informed and disiplined in what and when we sell.

[dolin]

hi when i read you and you talk about quebec.i think to be lucky because i am living there.it is not a paradise for farmer.we have the same problems than you.

[TOM4CWB]

Ianben;

I do not have any crop under the snow.

I do have neighbours that do.

Some got 28 inches of rain in July/August, then one foot of WET snow on Sept 8th, then another 10 inches of rain.

If this would not qualify as a disaster, I do not know what would.

Now many of these farmers have totally lost over 50% of the 2004 crop. It is worthless. Feed wheat is selling at $65/t for 04 fall harvest... what do you think it will be worth after it is thaw and melt, then chewed by mice deer etc. for 6 months more. NOTHING.

If I cannot have compassion for my neighbour in a disaster, why exactly am I on this little green planet, third from the sun? Why the mean streak Ianben?

Good to hear from a freind in Quebec!

I sincerely hope you do well!

I hope you would want the same for us out here in the west!

[rookie]

Ianben said it all about a way out for us.

I feel its true.

Ag producers today have to bemore united and 'fight' for the better system .

Or is it just the typical Canadian way to sit back and be diplomatic.

I think it is like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic...the bottom line at the end of the day doesn't look very promising.

Or do you see it differently?

[cowman]

Well personally I don't begrudge the Quebec farmer for getting all he can get! They obviously have their act together and know how to squeeze the government! In fact I think it would be a good idea to import a few farmers from Quebec to show us how it is done?
I do believe we should consider Quebec an ally instead of the enemy? Why cry about Quebec when the real enemy is the government in Ottawa? Quebec is just looking out for its own interests...something I wish our provincial politicians would learn how to do? Quebec got where they are today by standing up to the crooks in Ottawa, not by falling all over themselves trying to kiss Ottawas' butt!

[WRAPper]

I was with Bob Friesen president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture having a beverage after the seminar day at Wild Rose Ag. Producers in Nisku. I asked him simply why it is different in Quebec v.s Alberta in reference to farmers working together and accomplishing things in concert for the good of all. It was an interesting conversation. I said with my dealings with the young farmers in Quebec I feel its as much a cultural thing as anything else. He agreed that it has alot to do with the differences.
We have to also understand our government better that isn't a US style attitude in Ottawa its more of a European and we don't recognise that when dealing with them.(my thoughts not Bob's) As far a commodity prices ag. tends to lead the prices higher then languish, we sa the higher prices the last teo years for grains and we might be in for a rough ride vs other commodities for some time to come. Pray for EL nino to cause some trouble.

[ianben]

I do not mean to be mean or negative but just accept things as they are.
We are all farmers facing very simialar problems with both weather and governments.
It is always greener from the other side.

Think solutions solutions solutions to our only problem supply and demand.

E-bay seems to have been an international success as a new marketing force.

Could we adapt/modify this package to our needs?

List/post our comodities with minimum price and acending price as we sell.

If we take canola as example Tom and I agreed 7.50 was a price we both could live with.

We list 50% of our production at 7.50 his ex Edmunton mine ex Liverpool.
Next 20% at 8.00 next 20% at 8.50 rest at 9.00. We both sell some at profit but leave 10% for when it is our turn to harvest deer crap.

Only rules no-one lists below 7.50 and no-one sell whole crop at 7.50 but after that it is up to the individual.

Could it work? Anybody else any ideas?

[pilllypilsner]

The world is a big place.
Money is complex.
How high did oil go pre83?
What could 40$ purchase in early 80?
What could 40$ purchase in early 90?
00?
10?
Is oil going up?
What the hell is m3?
1.9 trillion dollars traded daily.
1 million dollars stacked in 1000$ den.
is 4 inch high-1 trillion dollar-67 mile
What is market cap?
Place your bets.good luck.ANYTHING CAN
HAPPEN NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE


p.s-bought steel lately?

[TOM4CWB]

Ianben,

I did sell half of our remaining 05 crop last week at $7.60/bu.

I believe it was a fair price, and now have over 60% 05 canola priced at well over $8/bu.

Principal to making a profit today is to have a plan.

I think Quebec farmers are smart to work together... it is done on a consensus base... from what I can see.

No doubt some days Quebec farm leaders have a huge job to keep everything together... I know it is not an easy job. But they respect each other.

In western Canada, we do not respect each other.

We think it is cute and smart to steal from each other intercommodity wise.

Until we do start to respect and honour each other... we will never be able to work together like farmers in France, Quebec, or even the US.

We must make the first move, by admitting that hard work is the key, that we will not take short cuts by taking our farm neighbours property, and that we will go much further with cooperation than useing a gun on our neighbour.

The saying by Al Capone is dead wrong. A kind word and a loving heart will go much further than a gun and a smile!

[agstar77]

Maybe you should tell George Bush about your kind heart idea!!

[ianben]

The new marketing medium would be able to solve other problems which we all have.
A payment protection such as paypal on E-bay could protect us from bad debt.
Optional but better than the experiances with corparate hog barns in another thread.

Advantages for buyers too.
Search as in auto trader sites for canola within 100miles of crushing plant at 7.50.
The risk and speculation in trading would be reduced to the benifit of both parties.
Would Eatmorewheat see these advantages?

Tom you have had much training to achieve your skill in marketing.

But you still have to guess your 05 production you may have sold half your crop you may have sold a quarter I hope not but perhaps it will be your turn for deer crap.
This new way might even help sell the poorer grades.

Spring harvested canola very small amount contamination 5.00

Is a marketing system devised in the 1850s the best we can do today.

Could a system like this even cope with an event like BSE?

Packers would still pay realitic price but everyone would sell less. A real supply demand signal would be sent and farmers could take apropriate action

[TOM4CWB]

Ianben,

Spring Harvested Canola will not be allowed into our domestic crush plants.

I understand the oil quality is recked by the exposure to winter moisture/freeze thaw cycle. This is on top of the biohazard of wildlife exposure.

On Canola sales for 05, we have a plan to buy back through Canola options, to insure our delivery no matter what. We did this in 2002 with very good risk management results through the drought.