Canola v.s beans disconnect

[mcfarms]

Great thoughts incognito.

I (and yes I'm ashamed to admit I still have some canola unpriced) have the last couple years developed a bit of a strategy where I try and do my basis first as far out as possible waiting until the basis levels reach near or above zero(southern Alberta) on what ever portion of the old crop I still have and wait for the futures to give me what I have targeted either by setting GPO's or watching the trends as close as I can. This way I can participate in a rally fully rather than watching up moves vanish in widening basis's. I do accept that if beans move but no one comes looking for Canola the basis level of course will widen. But it appears that we are more and more an a bean based world especially it appears to the hedge funds and minor traders that give the liquidity to the market. read tonight where wce is trying to get more "locals" back to the wce or short term traders because they lost enough during the switch to electronic.

At least I'm trying to understand what is moving the markets I still wonder what percentage of producers is even this interested.

[Incognito]

5% of farmers care what drives the market....scary thought.

[melvill]

One of the best ways to "value" canola is to chart soyoil in Cdn cents/pound against canola in $/tonne. You'd be surprised at how closely over time they have tracked. Reason is that canola is an oilseed and soybeans are a "meal seed" that produces some oil.

Remember, too, that starting in 1996 the canola futures moved from a Vancouver value to a Saskatoon value. That upset some of the "old time" ratios that we used to watch. Of course, maybe we shouldn't be paying a lot of attention to trends, etc., from that long ago.

[Lifer]

Incognito where do you get this 5% stat of farmers who care?

I believe all farmers care. They may not know what exactly they are doing, butt they still care. And yes I did say butt...

[Lifer]

To add another thought. What did we get in the last WTO talks. I believe it was what we asked for. Which apparently was nothing.

This time however lots of direction has been given to the chief WTO dude, aka our man Steve, who is a brilliant and effective negotiator armed with the needs and concerns of the Canadian Oilseed industry provided by the dedicated Canadian Canola Industry.

To quote The Who, "We won't be fooled again."

[wd9]

Lifer, do you think that the fact that the grains and oilseeds industry is so cheap and blind that they don't realize that by not having effective lobbying in Ottawa they are not heard and have no hope of gaining market share or fair trade because the other commodities spend millions representing themselves 40 wide by 40 deep and oh about 17 high which drowns the single grains and oilseeds representative crushing them into the floor.

[onearm]

as mentioned beans are being driven by non-fundamental factors. why should canola be tied to it? Enjoy the free ride.

[Lifer]

Wd9 do you actually think that Ottawa can come up with any solutions? If we pile it higher do you think Ottawa will listen?

[wd9]

Farmers need to come up with the solutions and pass these on to the political leaders and negotiators. Takes time and money. Again something our competitors have an abundance of.

Lobbying is just not a priority in most farmers opinion yet wonder what happened and why isn't the government doing something about it when more tarriffs get piled on.