May beans down 6 1/2 today...and up 10 tonight

[Incognito]

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1245,00.html

not the volume in the first hour as last night but respectable just the same.

These is not your father's markets anymore.

[Incognito]

how bout grammer.....lol

These ARE not your father's markets anymore.


Best,

[cropduster]

Am thinkin` you`s riaght!!Am still wondering what the you all`s will do with rust in their crops?????

[Incognito]

The funds figured it out before the rest of us. Took beans from 5.00 to 6.25 to get even. Downside risk to beans now with SA production loss and possible rust in the US is 25 cents ...upside $1.00. Not a bad risk investment.

i just backspaced a whole whack about supply management...LOL

Best,

[CattleAnnie]

"Thesefeel-good ... sessions that government likes to do on their swing through are cold comfort."

Amen, Cam.

Talk is cheap. I don't know about you folks, but I've about had it about to the ears with the whole mess. Have had so many platitudes spoon fed from MP, MLA, Minister of Ag, Premier's office, CCA that just don't know what to do that would get some action going for our cattle industry. Who can you talk to that actually gives a rat's ass about what happens to the people in this industry?? I mean, someone that has the power to actually help...

What will it take

Frustrating as h e double l to live so far from any centre. Almost as frustrating as trying to hold the place together anymore.

If I lived closer to Parliament or Legislative buildings, I'd call the boys to load the liners with my culls and offload them on that nice green grass.

Let them sue me...can't get blood from a stone anyway.

Sorry. Blizzard rolling into N.E. BC tonight and just getting so weary of the situation. Expect the last thirty head will try and calve in this mess.

End of rant. Take care of yourselves.

[Incognito]

May Ecbot beans are up 16 and were up 18 at one time to 6.74. In CAD dollars thats $8.13 a bushel. Watch the funds positions carefully this week.

[CattleAnnie]

CattleAnnie, your 'rant' describes the frustration of 99% of cattlemen and women to a 'T'.
Calving time is stressful enough without the continual worry about keeping the wolf from the door !!

[farmers_son]

I think as producers we need to be skeptical about plans to make the industry profitable. If we were to look at the entire industry, it is profitable right now, and that profitability can be increased by finding markets for SRMs and even finding new export markets. Unfortunately none of that profitability makes its way to the primary producer. Increasing packer profitability is not going to help my situation. The beef industry is characterized by margin operators who take their profit, sometimes more than a fair profit while the cow calf operator is left hanging onto the end of the rope all the while financing the “industry” who profit at their expense.

Canada needs more slaughter capacity, everyone agrees with that. But do we need Cargill and Tyson to increase slaughter capacity so they can continue to control the industry? Will that help even a little bit? What no one is saying is we need competition in the “industry” so that the marketplace begins to function normally and fair prices are paid for live fat cattle and feeders. Until I hear government and “industry” focus on the problem of competition as well as lack of packer capacity I am not getting too excited by any of these announcements. Giving Cargill and Tyson investment tax credits is not going to help one darn bit. We need solutions targetted at the problem of no competition in the industry and our dependence upon the U.S. not only to provide packing capacity but competition as well.

[JD4ME]

Truly a fund driven event it sure would appear however this is also an indication of high hand to mouth JIT delivery the worlds buyers have become it shows patience may be the best pricing tool we have these days as well as the ability to pull the trigger when the chances present themselves.Thing about this that makes me wonder is that those that don't trade the beans but are more focused on the canola production and marketing are really not seeing a equal rally are they? Beans are in that 8 CAN range and canola's being drug along rather unwillingly into the 6.70 range.
Historically canola has held a premium to beans hasn't it?
This is indeed unfortunate, and it must point to teh fact that either this is entirely funds based or Canola is considered a minor use crop and not worthy of attention in this event.


Also incognito I've enjoyed your posts when I'm not busy doing other things the question for you is wheat?
Contract highs in the december have been broken if you grow any are you going to use the fixed price contract and lock some in now or are you as I a looking at that 24 dollar basis and thinking of taken it but waiting on the futures for the time being we have a lot of months for production problems and the high last year was mid april about a month from now. Or are you more likely to wait for the new daily pricing option?

Lots of questions and thinking going on right now isn't there?
Thoughts?

[grassfarmer]

well said farmers_son!

[kato]

Expand markets? Allow testing. Simple.

Japan is there right in front of us, and whether it's scientifically correct or not is irrelevant. It's an access to a market. It's giving the customer what they want. Why should it be different for beef than it is for other products?

Is it scientifically correct to only manufacture green shoes, if that's the only kind people will buy? No. It's smart marketing.

Is it scientifically correct to only sell organic food? Some people say no. Some say yes. But no one stops an organic farmer from marketing his product. Why is tested beef any different than organic?

No one can prove the 'science' behind the concept on either, but the consumer will only buy what the consumer wants. Just as not every North American consumer jumps on the organic bandwagon because some people believe in it, they also will not jump on the "I only eat tested beef" bandwagon just because Japanese consumers want it. They understand the situation in Japan is not the same as here, and are a lot more intelligent than they are given credit for.

How much kicking around do we want to submit to before we really get serious about change? If the big American packers don't want to keep up, then too bad so sad. Leave them behind.

[kato]

i agree with kato and farmers-son lots of talk no real action!!!!!!!!!!
no 1 -testing all cattle starting
tomorrow i know not needed but if consumer wants do it better than losing250 -300dollar a head.
no 2-no more inplants[hormone]large
euro-dollarcountry.love to buyhormone
free beef.name [HORMONE]IS LIKE NAME
CEBULL IN CANADA!!!!!!!
NEVER heard any action or results of
all these long trips by abp and acc
ben torlakson????
ted haney is starting to talk about this large europe market.
never heard cargill or lakeside spent big trips on promoting b-s-e free and hormone free beef.
first we produce cheap product for the
u-s-a packers and than sell and promote our beef and give them millions of goverm money on top. we need kill capacity canadian plants .witout goverment help [never] [never] those smaller canadian plants get started!!!
paul martin is more interested with the gay and same sex marrige or stopping the misle,s from u-s-a
canadian liberal leader not setting
a good sample toward our problems and
our neighbours u-s this did affect out cattle trade across the bourder

[grassfarmer]

jerryk, Here is some info I found on Europe - it may be a year or two out of date.
Roughly speaking the EU has around 380 million consumers. They export 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of beef a year mainly dairy bred stuff that even the Australians can't compete with on price due to export subsidies. They also import 500,000 tonnes of beef a year (possibly higher now). They are very protectionist and have strict quotas of what they buy from certain countries. The UK will probably wind up their OTM scheme this fall which will add 500,000 mature animals to the kill annually.
It is certainly worth looking at - as you say if the industry here would drop the hormones they might get sitting at the negotiating table.

[charliep]

Incognito

How you don't mind if I clip from another thread and throw in my two bits.

"Agreed on the 10MMT and the world supply factor Charles.

Without the 10 MMT buffer, as Oil World is now calling Brazil 53 MMT an further reductions imminent, what premium has been built in for rust, low acres, aphids and weather? "

I always find it interesting to see how the information influences markets and a farmers ability to lock in profitable new crop prices. I note the current market has Dec. CBT corn close to $2.50/bu. Long term this is both profitable and a place where farmers will sell. There is also a weather premium built in. $6.40/bu soybeans (Nov. 2005) are less obvious from the charts but are also likely close to a sell point for the US farmer. I also note an inverse in soybeans versus carry in corn.

Markets like this are what keeps life interesting.

[crusher]

I enjoy farming a lot more when prices are moving up, instead of down. I caution a person on booking the basis and letting the futures ride. I tried that strategy last year and it backfired (although I'm going to try it again). This time around I'm going to set upside and downside targets based on cost of production with a reasonable profit. Time to start planning like a businessman instead of hoping like a farmer.