Ethanol Good - Ethanol Bad?

[charliep]

Not very clear in my second paragraph. The jist is the case was successfull in demonstrating corn was subsidized using both the criteria of countervail (subsizing to to export markets) and anti dumping (selling below cost). It was dismissed because the Manitoba could not prove sufficient financial damage to the western Canadian corn industry (too small a crop in the prairies).

[dalek]

Charlie it depends if you're talking about Ontario corn GROWERS or the Ontario Corn Producers Marketing Board and it's directors. I think the growers would probably be 80 % in favour of going after the US but the board continues to be against it. The difference, as far as I can see, is that the average Ontario grower has had little of their own (as opposed to money taken from them by the OCPA) money invested in ethanol, while the Board and it's directors have invested significantly in ethanol and unfortunately many growers think the board is more interested in protecting it's own investments than protecting the ability of growers to stay in business. We have an ethanol mandate here, unfortunately it looks like it will be fulfilled with Brazilian ethanol or with ethanol made in Ontario from American or Quebec corn.

[dalek]

Vader the advantage western plants probably have is that they can't be built on the great lakes. Our local bulk corn buyer tells me it's cheaper for her to transport a ton of corn from Ohio thanks to Uncle Sam and the US Army Corps of Engineers, than it is to bring it by truck from 40 km away.

[Vader]

dalek,

Where can I find more information about the science and economics of ethanol production from wheat vs. corn. Up until a few weeks ago I didn't think that wheat could compete but now I am not so sure.

[charliep]

Thanks Dalek

This debate goes on in Alberta as well with the discussion about security of supply for users versus market opportunities for grain growers in the face of subsidized competition.

Vader - I suspect that US corn (except maybe in drought years like 2002) will never be a factor in the Lloydminster ethanol plant. Too far away/expensive to bring in US corn consistently. There is also lots of local grain close by.

The more important factor will be implications for the local feed market (realized distillers grains will be fed) - this is were the competition will come from and where the impact will be. Similarly, there will be the interaction of the CWB payment structure/how spreads are determined within the wheat ex durum pool and the mid class classes (CPS)/3CWRS supplied the plant. Finally, the impact that will have to be looked is the creation of another opportunities ability to stop the shift of acres in N.E. Alberta and Northern Saskatchewan to other more profitable crops (peas, canola, livestock, etc.). A partial answer for Lloydminster may actually come from feedstock feed crops like triticale.

[wd9]

AFAIK Lloyd can only process wheat, not corn.

[dalek]

OCPA is at www.ontariocorn.org, they have a lot of ethanol links, not a lot negative as you might expect. Can't tell you anything about wheat for ethanol, it isn't on the radar here.

[ianben]

Lots going on here in UK on the energy crop front. High oil and gas prices, end in sight for UK gas frm North sea, and Kyoto are the drivers.

Mixed results so far but blends seem to be winning in both oil and combustion
Coal aparently burns more efficiently with some natural partners and mixed mineral and biofuels seem to improve emissions.

Personnally I like the option of growing crops which can serve both markets food and fuel.

Some guys here have already been stung when a dedicated crop is grown and then no market when the buyer renages or fails to build the processing facility.

I cant understand why your CWB is not involved in promoting and encouraging wheat for energy and all the other value added processes which could be carried out in Canada.

This is what our HGCA does for us!

CWB is not only doing a poor job for farmers but the whole of Canada if it sells wheat below its energy value.

Exporting a national asset at half its value. Got any oil for sale at $30 a barrel?

[ward.toma]

RE: Economics of ethanol

ADM shares fell last week on news that North American ethanol production capacity was in excess of estimated demand.

South America (Argentina and Brazil) produce ethanol because it has had a hydrocarbon deficiency like the US. Canada does not have this.

Biodiesel has not been pulled into any market place in the world by demand. Government support in an effort to meet policy goals has moved it forward.