Inverse market for Beans -Bad sign for Canola??

[JD4ME]

Just throwing this in for discussion, If you look at the futures markets for the grains we really watch on US exchanges in western Canada, Wheat, Soybeans and Corn. Wheat and corn are both in the usual pattern with the deferred months showing increasing values indicating a rising market usually including carry. However Beans are in an inverse market which shows declining prices going forward. Canola on the other hand has rather good advances going forward which is interesting is this a sign to lock in some of that canola in a forward month?? I have my thoughts on this what are yours????

[melvill]

You're right about there being an inverse for new-crop soybeans (Nov futures) under old-crop beans (Sep futures)yesterday. That is not unusual. What was unusual yesterday were inverses further into new-crop beans.

Professional spread traders would be looking at those inverses and seeing an opportunity. So far today (8:52 a.m.) they are taking advantage of that new-crop inverse opportunity and the inverses have nearly, but not totally, disappeared.

Wonder if the market will have returned to a more normal carry by the end of the day?

[crusher]

I haven't made any sales for new crop yet. My breakeven is $7.00/bu and with normal basis I need futures to hit $320. I don't see the point of pricing below cost. South America is harvesting a brutal crop - 20% less than initial projections, I'm going to wait.