marketing tips and ideas please

[sawfly]

after 3 years of the worst crops in histroy, everything looks great crop wise, barring hail or frost.
i have locked in 3000 6.50 canola off the combine,and have cargil IP 9.00 $ contracts on 3000 bushell.
i have old crop stocks(15000bus) of 14.5- 15.5 protein 3 and feed hrsw. 10,000 bus.42 lb.feed barley.
new crop estimates 100-125 thousand hrsw. 27-36 thousand canola,30-40thousand
metcalffe barley andlots of bills to pay in november.
was debateing blending old crop 3red with new crop,and topdressing at least some of wheat for protein.
my wheat marketing stratagey is wishful thinking. that i dont get froze and somewhere else is a diasaster.
any ideas thanks.

[sawfly]

lets drop wheat yeild 25,000 just got 70-80% hail on 800 acres

[TOM4CWB]

Sawfly;

How much hedging have you done on new crop 2005 harvest?

Do you have an interest free 2005 spring advance on 2005 crop in the ground? (canola gives most flexibility)

Are your 2004 advances all paid off now?

[sawfly]

i have only done a sept. ddc on the 3000 canola . and have the contract for the intermountian/cargil canola for 9$ on the first ten bushell per/acre. (300 acres).
i have no cash advances ,and havent signed on any wheat board programs.
i would have locked in more canola if i could get 7$ or more farm gate.
hopefully with a decent wheat crop, i will take the board cash advance to cover bills,and not have to sell canola into a harvest market.
i probably should have found a good fall basis contract and priced later to get rid of some storage risks on canola.
was hopeing for some kind of weather market or that grains would get on the bandwagon with every other commodity.

[TOM4CWB]

Sawfly,

A spring interest free cash advance to pay off some of those November bills early can pay big rewards (on interest savings)... but ONLY a canola advance as it is with Canadian Canola Growers and not the CWB)@1-866-745-2256. It can be paid back cash or rolled into a post harvest advance (costs $250)... check with the canola people for details.

Taking a little DPC (to get to a spread to minimise buy back costs) with the CWB could help with some of the high px feed/3CWRS if you can get it into the US wheat market later on... an extra $1/bu could be possible by past experience IF the US drops the border tax. SO we need to know WHERE you are situated from the US Boarder.

The CWB feed buyback is way out of kilter now... a cleaning upgrade may be needed to sweeten the 04 stocks and enter the export market your self.

DO you have your own semi truck?

If so many new marketing options are opened up.

[melvill]

sawfly, here's how I've got your present position figured:

05 canola - 6000/30000bu - 20% priced. The DDC looks like equivalent to about Nov futures at $302 to $305/t. That's good. Look for some good basis contracts for the non-Cargill canola - I can't tell you what that would be 'cause I don't know where you are - and be willing to lock in prices when Nov futures gets at least in the $304 or $305 range. This morning at 9:03 a.m. Nov is at $304.20 and soybeans are up US20 cents/bu on emotion about drought. If you are not super worried about production risk, I'd be getting to 50% priced on canola by harvest, especially if you can find a good basis and Nov futures gets to that $315 range - and there's no guarantee that'll happen.

Can you move any of that old-crop high protein #3 to the Board before the end of the crop year? Unless you can upgrade it by blending it off with new-crop, and blending can be a tricky operatoin, I think there is significant down-side to #3 wheat prices in the new crop year.

As for the light barley, hard to tell until I know where you are. Can you give me a hint? The one thing in your favor is each day the eastern corn belt is dry, offers at least the possibility that feed grain prices will strengthen. What could hurt you is a large, high quality feed barley crop.

Others comments?

[sawfly]

sorry for delay in posting too busy.bins combines swathers family,etc.

located 90 miles south of loyddminister
basis levels in area for fall generally run about 24$,old crop basis has been 8$-24, fall basis coukd be 35-38.
yes i would like to be 30 -40% canola priced by harvest.
the light barley i want to dump asap
i will check out canola advance.just so i dont have to market into the harvest market.
dont have semi or the time to haul 3 wheat south to usa ,i think a doller/bushell would be eaten up in trucking.
i can get rid of the 3 red through board.and will sell some of the feed wheat today open market, and gamble a while with the rest of it.
thanks for advice on #3wheat and will take a hard look at today and make a decission.
i find i may think the rigth way a lot of the time but fail to act.