Highlight to me was the soyoil numbers. U.S. 05/06 Carryout was lowered 11.5% from July, and 04/05 Carryout was 6.5% lower than July. World soyoil carryout was also lowered for both yearends. Add in a little frost in the next two weeks and I don't think November canola will drop under $265. That's when I'll add a bunch more longs to my already huge position. I've got to make some bucks somewhere to pay for the $800 NH3 and 65 cent diesel.
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I'll just pop in the USDA website/actual numbers.
Corn - Down today. Yields 139.2 bu/ac verus 145 bu/ac (also trend yield) and 160.4 bu/ac in 2004. Carryovers still large with lack lustre demand the issue.
Soybeans - Bouncing around. Still some weather in this market. Carryovers coming down. Remains the ever ready bunny with demand the plus factor that is keeping high. Canada needs some of the China demand factor to float over to canola (i.e. some confirmed sales this fall).
Wheat - Not much comment from report other than to note spring wheat. Will be watching the impact of disease in N/S Dakota. Higher end bread type world wheat supplies will be very dependent on our crop.
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I apologize for 3 posting but sometimes numbers get me excited (I know I should get a life).
I just did some calculations on China. will just give percentages.
China represents about 8 % of world soybean production.
China represents about 21 % of world soybean use. I find this interesting/can't explain but they are also about 20 % of world population.
Chinese imports represent about 41 % of world soybean trade.
Lets all hope the Chinese soybean demand factor never leaves.
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