CWB Rejects 50% /30% of Wheat

[charliep]

Just to put some context to the discussion, I will post two web side with Canadian durum supply demands.

AAFC market analysis can be found at:

http://www.agr.gc.ca/mad-dam/e/sd1e/2005e/oct2005_e.htm

The Alberta Agriculture one can be found at:

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd5326

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

Vader mentioned about an alternative use for DUrum... at HRS values... what is this all about?

Can Durum be used in products other than Pasta?

[charliep]

Vader - What alternative uses are you looking at?

The most obvious alternative use is couscous for the North Africa. Not sure on the starch profile/use in ethanol but this has to be considered for lower grade durum to provide competition to the livestock industry noting they don't like processing the hard CWAD kernels (not ideal feed relative to other alternatives so only goes into rations when cheap).

[AdamSmith]

Vader

A farmer grows 1000t of Durum and can only sell 500t it for $167/t. That equals
$83,500 to pay expenses, reinvest in his farm and just plain live. That’s what the CWB has decided for him. The other thing they could have done for him was buy all 1000t for $130/t which would give him $130,000 to pay bills and live.

Vader, in case you haven’t heard those of us trying to survive on grain sales alone need that extra $46,500 just to get by into next year.

What good is a higher priced durum next year to the guy who is forced into having an auction sale this winter????

When is the board going to get a grip on reality?

Every one involved in agriculture is making different decisions based upon today’s new realities. Why does the CWB think they can just keep doing what they’ve been doing for years while everything around them has changed???

Narcissism has no bounds.

[JACKFLASH]

Vader:
As to the question I posed on another thread. Why did the CWB stop Prairie Pasta from shipping durum to Carrington N.D., by jacking the buybacks so high. The plant at Carrington was going to take a good Quantity of Durum of all grades. It didn't make much sense to me to limit farmers from a market. Everyone stood to make some money.

[Vader]

Adamsmith,

If I understand your example, you are advocating lowering the price of durum wheat by $1.00 per bushel so farmers can sell more grain.

I will repeat what I said earlier.

Would you rather sell more grain for less money or sell less grain for more money?

I know your answer and I feel greatly for those farmers who are in the midst of a cash crunch. The reason for the depressed prices of commodities around the world is selling more grain for less money. This is a vicious circle. Income falls, farmers have cash flow committments...grain sales don't cover the costs.... must grow more grain to cover costs... production goes up.... prices go down.... must sell more grain...and so on and so on and so on.....must sell more grain.

You all know the old saying. If we keep doing what we are doing we will get where we are going.

We don't have supply management in the grain sector and the CWB cannot make you stop growing grain. The CWB can send market signals either with low PRO's or with limited contract acceptance.

A 50% contract acceptance is a MARKET SIGNAL. Pay attention.

[TOM4CWB]

Vader;

THe CWB holding up prices artificially... creates even more durum production in other nations that are not under the "single desk".

If the CWB were the only seller your little theory might have some legitimacy... but many nations sell durum.

Even then (with a true monopoly)the subsitution factor still comes into play where other food products that cost less replace durum products and the price must drop to gain back or maintain market share.

Reality Vader... Canadian "designated area" grain producers have good reason to be very angry about the Christmas gift the CWB just gave to the US, Ausie and EU farmers!

We in western Canada cannot afford to be the residual holders of world grain stocks at no cost for the Canadian government and other nation states! globally!

[Vader]

Tom, the hole in your argument is that the CWB is not selling any less durum wheat than they normally would. There has been no hole left in the market place for anybody else to fill.

Western Canadian farmers simply produced more than they normally would. Go out and look at all the piles of grain on the ground.

Can you ignore reality simply to support your hatred of the CWB? How can you claim that the LORD is on your team? I find nothing more disgusting than those who use religious righteousness as part of their arguments.

[charliep]

Should the CWB estimate market demand and enter into supply contracts with farmers to grow the volume necessary to meet these needs? If you are growing outside the CWB contracting program, you would be at the vagrancies of the market (price could be higher or lower than the contracted price).

I have to note the implications of withdrawing from the market. Durum prices are not all that good this year even with " monopoly controlled market access". The issues of a higher loonie and ocean freight rates are impacting durum just like other crops. The question comes down to competitiveness in world markets and our ability to maintain/grow market share on the one hand and to develop higher valued markets/processing here in Canada on the other.

Given the successes in canola and the new health based markets for barley, can anyone help me in identifying a new markets for durum? Where does responsibility and accountability flie for this lie in the current marketing system?

[parsley]

Vader,

Perhaps not everyone agrees with the personal religious element in TOM4cwb's philosophical approach to reasoning, but I think everyone on Agri-ville truly appreciates his awesome expertise and contributions in so many areas, istead of finding them disgusting. And his raw honesty.

I regret that you cannot be tolerant of, nor respect, other people's heart-held beliefs, which inevariably help to shape their opinions and approach to problem solving.

Parsley