Corn Duty

[Riley]

What if any will be the impact on agriculture in general and grains in particular of the imposition of today's corn duty of $1.65/bu U.S.? Thoughts?

[clancey]

Most analysts do not believe it will have an immediate impact on corn markets. End users may have accumulated stocks and it does not apply to anything which crossed the border prior to today. Once they use those up, they will buy in Canada. However, the only people who can be counted on to buy corn are those who must use corn. Others will buy cheaper feed grains.

[charliep]

Would agree with above. WCE feed wheat and barley up slightly today. Bigger impact on processors (distillers/snack food) in western Canada. Manitoba will be interesting in that hog feeders will likely have to draw from further into Saskatchewan to find zero DON (ie. non fusarium) feed wheat. Will let someone from Ontario comment on their situation.

[wd9]

Charlie, do you have the numbers on domestic corn production for Manitoba? Seems with the cold weather and excess rain, the yields were not where they normally are. Dry in Ontario, same thing.

[charliep]

Can't find the Manitoba numbers at home but can get the prairie numbers. Western Canada produced 245,000 tonnes in 2005 versus 53,000 tonnes in 2004 and 524,000 tonnes in 2003.

Ontario produced 5.8 MMT in 2005 versus a range of 5.1 MMT (2001) to 5.6 MMT (2003).

Canadian corn production was 9.5 MMT in 2005 versus a range of 8.4 MMT to 9.6 MMT over the previous 4 years.

I will have to check out another source to get Manitoba/a longer historical perspective on Ontario.

[craig]

It's time someone jumped into the fray. While legally it is only the corn producers who can start a trade challenge against American's dumping corn, it is all feed grain producers who potentially benefit from such action.I find it hard to believe that Manitoba hog producers can't use feed wheat at comparable costs to corn in their rations especially in light of today's prices. Maybe there is someway to use empty rail cars heading east to transport non fusarium grains to Manitoba. We(Alberta) has been the dumping ground for poor quality cereal grain from the eastern prairies, so maybe it's time to return the favor. I don't buy the argument that livestock producers have to have access to subsidized american grains to be competitive.Livestock production is value added processing and by using domestic production they help support the grains sector and in turn reduce everyones reliance on government support.

[lakenheath]

I agree with Craig 100%. Cheap, subsidy filthy Amercian corn has done enough damage to our farmers and people. Keep it out.

[clancey]

This year's corn production was:
Manitoba 211,500 MT
Ontario 4,322,700 MT
Quebec 1,799,900 MT
Canada 7,469,000 MT

Manitoba imports around 300,000 MT of corn a year. If it has already imported 150,000 for 2005-06 because of the pending duty, the net benefit to producers in 150,000 MT. However, Ontario will likely reach into western Canada to replace some corn with barley, oats and feed wheat.
Imports have been around 2.2 million MT a year.

[cropduster]

CRAIG...paste that onto the beef production and listen to the whining!The CCA ,in their speaking notes/questions to potential candiates for federal election,are asking to have the tariff removed.Do you think they really CARE about where and how they get the cheapest feed possible?Anxious to see the text of the supposed WTO agreement.

[silverback]

There was sure no loyalty to Alberta barley a couple of years ago. They were quite happy to let it sit in the bins of their former suppliers.

[TOM4CWB]

Craig:

The shots have now been fired... and the trade war is on.

Who is at fault?

Where will this lead?

Who will be hurt the most?

All I know is we in western Canada are MUCH more dependant on exporting our Ag produce than US producers are.

It may feel good just after the shot is fired... and we see it hit... just what are the consequences?

Hadn't we better be ready to shut down exports of all produce to the US...?

What will be the effect if this the end event of our actions?

[cowman]

I wonder if this duty will stand up to a NAFTA or WTO challenge? I would assume the federal government knows...or are they just playing politics?
How come in 2002 there was no challenge to subsidized corn destroying the western Canadian feed grain market? Was it because it was only hurting the Alberta grainfarmer...and hey who cares in Ottawa about a bunch of dumb rednecks in Alberta!
I'll tell you one thing if this corn duty results in the USA slapping the cattle and hog producers with tariffs all feed grain producers might just find out how valuable those producers really are? The beef and hog sector don't need to be shut out of the USA right now...their finances are a little shaky after the garbage both have gone through the last few years? Many of them are teetering on the edge?
I wonder where anyone gets off calling the American corn diseased? What do you think they have been hauling into feedlot alley from Sask. and Manitoba the last several years? About as diseased and dirty as it gets!
I am not saying American corn isn't subsidized and that it should be coming in, but if this duty won't stick we could be buying ourselves a whole load of trouble...for nothing? It is unfortunate that we have a federal government that can't deal with this American administration to solve these problems? Maybe it's time to elect a government that can?