Seeding Intentions?

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Is it too early to be discussing what will be planted or what will not be planted this upcoming year? Do you still plant for the big crop or do you cut costs and try to minimize potential loss? Will there be more summerfallow and will producers park air seeders? Lots of questions this year, lets hear some thoughts out there.

[lakenheath]

I have always been a strong advocate for all out inputs to maximize yield. Proper fertilizer, miro-nutirents, and proper chemical weed control. This is the first winter I have questioned it. I am seriously considering some radical altenatives that I wouldn't have in the past. Good question.

[Vader]

You might want to order this CD and listen to it before you make up your mind.

http://www.earthfortification.com/shopexd.asp?id=22

[charliep]

A barometer on activities I use is land rent. What are people seeing in their communities? Are people reducing rented land area? Is more land becoming on the market for rent? What is happening to rental rates?

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Near Calgary land rents are showing no sign of weakness yet. 65/acre for full 1/4 section seems to be the number. If you are not prepared to pay,some other person will. There is a lot of lip service from cash renters that rent is too high but no one will back down yet.

[charliep]

South East Calgary is where my brother farms and can make the same comment.

Will note I have talked to farmers who continuous crop and they are looking at chem fallow this year. Has more to do with getting crop/herbicide rotations back into shape and deal with perenial weed issues as an effort to impact prices. May be a year to try a winter wheat next fall.

To put a market focus on the question, I would be following the extent of the shift in US acres from corn to soybeans.

[nw9flynn]

I would have a tough time justifying spending $65/ac chem time equipment dep to not even have the potential to make money in the year I farm it.

Farming seems to be a year to year business. To guarantee a loss for one of those years does not make sense to me.

That is the advantage to rented land. If it does not turn a profit than you can discontinue farming it. And find land that is a better fit.

There are alot of other factors that can also be considered, land location, business relationships, future opp to buy etc. When margins are as tight as they are for many farmers maybe we should focus more on short term profit year to year.

[nw9flynn]

That should read "65ac, plus chem, time, and equip dep."

[sawfly]

no more f$%%^^$$$ ing barley ,if im gonna grow something worthless,it may as well be peas, get some n.
smf some crap land into rye or winter wheat . save my input $ for the good land .more wht less canola

[wmoebis]

good point nw9flynn.
Give me the inside scoop on what is going to make me. 65/ac plus chem,time,dep and throw in fert and fuel?
I need all the help I can get. Espcially if we only sell 1/2 the durum and our lentils stay put.

[poorboy]

I think that $65/ac rent in the sure crop area (#1 soil) SE of Calgary is a bargain. Competition was slow in that area, it should have been much higher far earlier than it was. In the much drier and more variable yields to the east, the cash rents have been from $35-50/ac for years. It seems that as margins have got tighter a lot of farmers have tried renting more land and increasing their acres to hopefully make a living. More and more competition has raised rents.
The fact that land rents have finally gone up in the SE Calgary region has indicated to me that finally there is some competition. I think that compared to where I am at, that the rents in that area are going to go UP higher yet.
In comparing to the areas to the east, their is still more money left in your pocket on $65 rent in the higher yield areas that $40 rent in the poorer yielding areas. Input costs are almost identical (withing 5-10/ac).

[BFW]

I agree poorboy with your assessment that 65/acre se of calgary is a bargain compared to other areas. I thought that in year 2000 it was even more the case,when our exchange was more favourable,our costs were lower and feed prices were much higher in the drought years. So while I still agree with your initial statement I believe even top operators will be tight for margin at 65/acre going forward.

One more question, for Charlie, have you heard of any interest out there for new crop barley values and if so, what sort of farm gate value could you expect by selling 134/mt oct06 western barley futures?

[charliep]

Did some checking and no new crop bids although might be found with some door knocking. Only alternative is to hedge by selling futures. Would use traditional basis levels: $5 to $10 under Lethbridge region, $10 to $15 Calgary area, $15 to $20 Red Deer, etc.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

If you can sell those kind of levels, 134/mt oct06 futures less basis 13/mt Del, would net 2.63/bu, less 1% dockage. That kind of number can compete with current 05-06 malt barley pros. Why would a producer gamble on malt when that kind of feed price could be sold.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

I'm reading all of the comments above and am confused on how guys are saying that it is fine to pay $65 an acre and still plan to make money? I farm in central sk, and we farm some of the most highly assesed land in the province, in fact my local rm is supposed to be one of the most wealthiest rm's in the province, and land rent in this area is 40 tops and this year the farmers are falling over left and right. My inputs are at $165/acre, 100 bushel an acre barley at 1.60/bus doesn't cut, does it? We generally in this area grow 45-50bu canola this we had 60 but that doesn't happen every year. I just think it's kind of hypocritical to complain how tough it is, and then say $65/acre land is acceptable, if that is a bargain come out here to farm because there will be a ton of acres here that will not be farmed next year, I myself have been asked to take up to as much as 4000acres next year from neighbors, might take some but defintely not for 40/acre. Remember guys land prices are the only input we have control of.