December CWB Pool Return Outlook

[charliep]

Just a note the December PRO was released today. Stable to marginally lower outlook.

Just going to paste in current Portland grain prices (available daily at http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/JO_GR110.txt

Exporter offers on Wednesday night for February shipment FOB shipped in
dollars per bushel:

US 2 or btr Soft White Wheat $ 3.49 unch
US 2 or btr Western White Wheat $ 3.57 unch
US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, ord.% $ 4.55 dn 4
US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, 11.5% $ 4.61 dn 4
US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, 13% $ 4.79 dn 4
US 2 or btr Northern Spring Wheat, 13% $ 4.84 dn 3
US 2 or btr Dk Northern Spring Wheat, 14% $ 5.11 dn 4
US 2 or btr Northern Spring Wheat, 14.5% $ 5.30 dn 3
US 2 Barley $ 2.6450 unch
US 3 Yellow Corn $ 3.0100 dn 0.75

Source: USDA Market News Service, Portland, OR
Lowell Serfling (503) 326-2237
24 hour price information: (503) 326-2022
www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/jo gr110.txt

Just picking on feed grains, current corn prices in Portland would equate to about Cdn $140/tonne versus feed wheat PRO at Cdn $116/tonne. Portland feed barley prices equate to about $142/tonne versus an "A" series price of $125/tonne and "B" $115/tonne. The numbers are not 100 % comparable give Portland is loaded vessel and CWB is instore but gives an idea of the spread.

[charliep]

I will add in the comparison of the daily pricing contract.

Portland 2 or Better Dark Northern Spring Wheat 14 % prot. - Cdn $218/tonne FOB. CWB Dec PRO 1CWRS 13.5 - $204/tonne Instore. Daily Pricing Contract (Dec. 22) - $196.40/tonne instore.

Portland 2 or better hard red winter 11.5 protein - Cdn $197/tonne (FOB). CWB Dec. PRO 1CPSR - $153/tonne instore. Daily price contract (Dec. 22) - $167.02/tonne.

[TOM4CWB]

AWB- "Daily Market Comment for 23/12/2005
Despite talk of slow export news US March wheat futures moved to their highest level since November 15th overnight, the market finding support from the strength in soybeans and gold.

Chicago wheat for March is up 3 ¼ cents to 330 ¾ cents a bushel.

Corn for March is up 2 3/4 cents to 212 ¾ cents a bushel.

AWB's Multi Variety prices for the 2005/06 contracts are up $2.

AWB's 05/06 canola price is up $1 to $308 per tonne (GST exclusive) at 42% oil, delivered Geelong."

AWB clearly thinks prices are better... why did the CWB drop the ball?

Very interesting that with $7/t drop in PRO's... the domestic feed market now arbitages 2 CPS/CWRW milling wheat.

THis is about the CDN CORN DUTY!

AND holding down feed prices in Canada.

DOes any "designated area" grain farmer in western Canada even care?

How long will we take this?

[lakenheath]

I agree. We talk and talk about change. But as I have watched the PRO's drop for the last couple of years, it gets harder and harder to take. It is sickening. Someone is dropping the ball. I stand by the CWB's existance, but we must raise hell internally.

[parsley]

If you want to make some polite internal muffled suggestions along with the Vader types, I suggest you go to a Liberal fundraiser in Winnipeg, write a hefty contribution tucked in your back pocket, and you'll get to talk to the Minister.

Parsley

[Incognito]

Not bad gossip eh Lakenheath:

Winnipeg Free Press
Big changes coming to the wheat board
Wed Dec 21 2005



'CANADA has already made significant concessions with regards to the elimination of government financing and underwriting of Canadian Wheat Board losses. Further disciplines are not needed," Canada's Trade Minister Jim Peterson said at the conclusion of the World Trade Organization talks in Hong Kong Sunday.

Further disciplines may not be needed. But big changes are coming to one of the world's largest grain marketing organizations. Under relentless pressure from the U.S. and European Union, Ottawa gave up its ability to guarantee farmers' initial payments and CWB borrowing.

CWB Minister and Treasury Board President Reg Alcock insists Canada will never relinquish the CWB single-desk system "without there being significant action on the other side (U.S. and European Union subsidies)." However, he says farmers themselves may be moving to change the CWB structure while preserving its monopoly.

"We (the government of Canada) are in a different relationship with the board than before, given the majority are elected farmers. I follow their lead," he said in a wide-ranging interview.

"I believe the board is going to evolve into further farmer control. There are a number of considerations that I just can't talk about at this point because there are things going on that will become public soon regarding the evolution of the board.
There are a number of possibilities."

Alcock points to a full farmer co-
operative and to the CWB's nearest global competitor, the Australian Wheat Board. A private corporation, it trades on the stock exchange, but enjoys a monopoly on the export of Australian grain.

Alcock seems to favour the corporate Australian model. "You may want to look at the Australian board. It still has a monopoly. It is farmer-run and has much greater freedom. The CWB is constrained from certain investments (in grain terminals and freight cars.) The Australian board can invest in infrastructure. Farmers could end up with better terms and options."

_____________________________________

PS
If you have insider trading knowledge of the SWP shares perhaps you may soon share them with the Ontario Securities Commission.

While on the topic of your beloved SWP - how does you or your insider feel about paying the CEO half of their profits last year?

And no Vader, I'm not over on your side.

Everyone have a Great CHRISTmas.

Best,

[TOM4CWB]

Incognito:

Really glad to hear from you again!

Hope 2006 brings health, happiness, and many blessings...!

We sure nailed the 2005 market... BANG ON!!!

It is a Merry Christmas for many... hope especially for you and yours!

THIS CWB PRO stinks to high heavens; for WTO support monopoly last week!

Incognito; The CWB sold HARD at the bottom of the market again!!!

None should set up a computer program based on CWB actual sales!

Just do the opposite... we could be billionares!

[silverback]

Didn't Malleefarmer have a few thoughts on some "problems" with the AWB? I wonder if Alcock is looking for a new angle?

[Ron]

Is the CWB trying to get the 3 red and CPS into the feed market by lowering the price? It will make the 80% acceptance look better? It is bad enough waiting for movement on grain without the price dropping (you cant take an EPO untill after you deliver? Or can you?).
If the feed market comes up near 2.75 why wait for the board? What are the charges for underdelivery of #3 hrs?

[TOM4CWB]

Ron,

I believe you could decline a portion of your wheat IF the CWB did not take 100% of what you offered.

I think you have about 30 days from notification... which will be coming up real soon... check your letter from the CWB.

Droping the Pool Return Outlook was a very crafty move...

The CWB didn't think many would be watching with CHristmas, the election and all that is going on.

It sure put a lid on the domestic feed market... no doubt about that(Down $2/t today while the rest of the world was up on feed grains).

Perfect government solution for the Corn Tariff... doesn't cost a cent... (Except "designated area" wheat and barley growers) and keeps the domestic supply management/livestock industry competitive...

While Ontario Corn growers would never normally figure out what happened.

THe 20%/50% CWB wheat refusal was a no brainer to keep feed grains/lower quality grain inside Canada for domestic use.

Further selling a BIG chunk of this years crop at these low low prices will HELP big time to keep feed grain prices low right till August 1 2006.

Perfect tool to keep domestic prices low... the CWB pool system. We can't export to higher markets and arbitrage up the domestic market.

"Designated Area" grain growers STUCK... behind the "SIngle Desk".

[crusher]

Pretty shocked to see changes in low quality wheat prices. Tracking CPS, the PRO only changed one dollar in the past five months. Also the FPC is close to its five month high. The only justification I can think of is political. This burns my butt. Tom, I know you preach corruption (maybe that's a little strongly worded) but who do I contact to express my outrage. Once I find an ear to twist I will forward all my neighbours in that direction. That seven dollar drop was about a $20,000 hit around here and I'm not sure how many more I can take.

[TOM4CWB]

Please;

We all need to contact our Federal Member of Parliament.

It is our RESPONSIBILITY to inform and express our needs that CHANGE is required.

[silverback]

I hear you crusher, nice kick to the stomach. However, you know what the response will be "Buyers are just unwilling to pay those prices for our grain, trust us. The Pro's are market signals, pay attention and grow something else".

Merry Christmas.