$4.00/bush Dec 06

[malleefarmer]

Likely or unlikely
Its my target and maybe many of yours with a bit of bad news around the globe somewhere between now and april it seems on the cards any thoughts or could it go higher??

[Jagfarms]

For what product? Durum? Wheat? Peas?

[lakenheath]

Some day Lentils.

[JD4ME]

Canola, God I hope not.

[TOM4CWB]

We shouldn't be bottom sellers!

"BEIJING, Jan 03, 2006 (XFN-ASIA via COMTEX) -- Demand for grain in China this year is expected to exceed output by 15 mln tons, Xinhua quoted China's minister of agriculture as saying.

Du Qinglin said China is still facing problems balancing grain supply and demand despite the gap having been narrowed from 50 mln tons in 2003 to the expected 15 mln this year.

A total of 495 mln tons of grain will be needed in China this year, Xinhua quoted the minister as saying.

In 2005, China's output of rice, wheat and corn reached 182 mln tons, 97. 5 mln and 134.5 mln, respectively, the ministry said.

China is expected to fall short of 13 mln tons of rice, eight mln tons of wheat and 20 mln tons of soybeans this year, with only the output of corn exceeding expected demand, Du said.

He said the demand for grain in China will increase by around five mln tons each year and the country must seek ways to further expand domestic output, and minimize dependency on imports.

andrew.pasek@xinhuafinance.com"

"SEOUL, Jan 03, 2006 (AsiaPulse via COMTEX) -- South Korea's foreign exchange reserves rose by more than US$2 billion in December to reach $210.39 billion at the end of last month, the Bank of Korea said Tuesday.

The foreign reserves were up $2.16 billion from the previous month and $11.33 billion from a year earlier, the central bank said. Yet the annual increase was the smallest in four years.

The central bank attributed the December increase to a gain in the dollar value of assets denominated in euro, yen and other currencies.

Increased profits from foreign reserve investments in U.S. Treasuries and other assets were also a contributing factor, it said.

Foreign reserves consist of securities and deposits denominated in foreign currencies along with International Monetary Fund reserve positions, special drawing rights and gold.

According to the central bank, South Korea was the world's fourth-largest holder of foreign exchange reserves as of the end of November.

Japan held the largest foreign reserves of $843.3 billion in November, followed by China with $769 billion at the end of September. Taiwan trailed with $251.8 billion as of the end of November.

(Yonhap)"

I doubt if being short the futures right now would be a smart idea...

On DTN Gulke said it looks like the index funds will want to add to their long positions this month;

We should not underestimate what that means to the upward movement on prices.

The fundamentalists and the technical traders may both be right before 2006 is over, with prices going well above their fundamental values.

When big index fund selling comes in, prices could drop well below their fundamental values.

Timing is very important. Those with the big money tend to like the technicals better than guessing on weather.

Happy hunting... find a speculator that will make your farm profitable!

[TOM4CWB]

Ontario Wheat Prices:

Wheat as quoted on DTN

"On Friday the Ontario wheat board's (cash) landed basis price for soft white was estimated at C$3.92/bu ($144/t). Hard red winter (Pool B) was $3.87/bu, ($142/t). Soft red (Pool E) was $3.49/bu, ($128t). Pool C Hard Red spring was $4.78u ($176).

Harvest 06 (cash) landed basis price for soft white was estimated at $3.94u, ($145). Hard red winter (Pool B) was $3.94/ ($145). Soft red (Pool E) $3.71/bu ($136/t). Pool C Hard Red spring was $4.57/bu ($168/t)".

The Ontario Board reports double the participation in the 2005-06 pools over last year. The OWPMB voluntarily opened up the "single desk" and allows exports and domestic competition against the Board itself.

The OWPMB is governed by a deligate body that elects a Board of Directors on a yearly term at the annual meeting.

[cropduster]

T4CWB....seems like we don`t have a CHOICE but to be bottom dw(s)ellers.The donkeys we got selling our export stuff should have their wages tagged to what they sell our grain for!!Can`t wait for Jan.24!!!

[malleefarmer]

Wheat.
Sorry im not used to such a variety of crops im just a poor aussie guy who grows mainly wheat,barley,oats some canola

[Jman]

Cropduster:
I know our wheat prices in the west stink, but are you telling me the Ontario board prices for HRS is any better? It looks like the most be, why else are farmers there delivering against the pool acconts vs. open market??

I'm not familiar with the Ontario work back costs to farm gate net returns from there posted pool return prices.

Can you please explain who a typicall SW Ontario farmer's net return is calculated for a typicall 1 and 2 CWRS 13.5 delivery?

Thanks.

[Jman]

Cropduster:

Please ignore my first response, I mistakenly sent my reply before it was completed).

.....I know our wheat prices in the west stink, but are you telling me the Ontario board prices for HRS are any better?

I'm not familiar with the Ontario work-back costs to farm gate net returns from their posted pool return prices. Can you please explain how a typical SW Ontario farmer's net return is calculated for a typical 1 and 2 CWRS 13.5 delivery? I'm curious to see how the W. Can net price compares to the net SW Ontario price, after all they are located in a milling wheat deficit region, unlike us in the west, producing and competing for the surplus/export markets.

Also, how has the open-market Ontario bids compared to the Ontario marketing boards prices throughout the growing season. I'm sure they were much stronger, given the marketing clout of those companies.

I'm also curious to see how the Ontario marketing boards returns compare to the CWB's pool returns, basis a export position (i.e east and west coast)?


thanks much.