This information is doing the rounds here in aust any comments
Strictly speaking, this may have little immediate connection to markets, but it deserves attention. The Canadian election is on 23 January, and there apparently has been a huge shift in voter preferences during the past 7-10 days. When the elections were announced in November, the Liberal Party held a five point lead over the Conservative Party according to the polls. Those same polls now show that a major switch in public opinion has taken place. The Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals, and hold as much as a 12 point lead, depending on the poll. Some Canadian political analysts predict the Conservatives will actually emerge with a clean parliamentary majority, thus avoiding the need to cut a deal with other parties.
To say the least, I am not an expert on Canadian politics, and so I cannot comment about what appears to this outsider to be an extraordinary political shift. However, should the Conservatives actually form a new government; it could have serious ramifications for the Canadian grain marketing system. The Conservatives have from time to time pledged to allow Canadian farmers to sell wheat and barley to anyone they chose rather than being locked into the CWB as a monopoly buyer and marketer. During the past 15 years the Conservatives at times have suggested that the CWB could continue to operate but not as a monopoly. At other times Conservatives have pledged to simply eliminate the CWB altogether.
I cannot predict the results of the election, and I certainly cannot predict the policies of a new Conservative government, if there is one. But just based on past history, such a government might push for policies that would cause a major change in Canadian grain marketing, and that would lead to changes in global wheat markets. Clients should watch this closely.
Strictly speaking, this may have little immediate connection to markets, but it deserves attention. The Canadian election is on 23 January, and there apparently has been a huge shift in voter preferences during the past 7-10 days. When the elections were announced in November, the Liberal Party held a five point lead over the Conservative Party according to the polls. Those same polls now show that a major switch in public opinion has taken place. The Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals, and hold as much as a 12 point lead, depending on the poll. Some Canadian political analysts predict the Conservatives will actually emerge with a clean parliamentary majority, thus avoiding the need to cut a deal with other parties.
To say the least, I am not an expert on Canadian politics, and so I cannot comment about what appears to this outsider to be an extraordinary political shift. However, should the Conservatives actually form a new government; it could have serious ramifications for the Canadian grain marketing system. The Conservatives have from time to time pledged to allow Canadian farmers to sell wheat and barley to anyone they chose rather than being locked into the CWB as a monopoly buyer and marketer. During the past 15 years the Conservatives at times have suggested that the CWB could continue to operate but not as a monopoly. At other times Conservatives have pledged to simply eliminate the CWB altogether.
I cannot predict the results of the election, and I certainly cannot predict the policies of a new Conservative government, if there is one. But just based on past history, such a government might push for policies that would cause a major change in Canadian grain marketing, and that would lead to changes in global wheat markets. Clients should watch this closely.
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