Change - What will you get?

[Incognito]

The industry is facing change and right now change is inevitable. Both sides are dug in. CWB is dug in and taking an all-or-nothing approach. Government is promoting dual market as are other farm groups.

What is the best way to move to the center with each proposal that is palatable for each side and see some give from each to ensure that the FARMER’S financial well being is best served?

What are some of your thoughts in a win-win proposal that farmers can live with, adjust and get ready for change and one that the CWB can live with and also get ready for the new world?

Ask for all and you are not likely to get it…not in this situation; however, there will be change …that you can take to the bank.

I’m sticking to my original thoughts: 1) CWB out of organics altogether, 2) a two year trial for dual marketing in barley – no MT limits and 3) one million tonnes of no cost wheat and durum exports available to the trade and farmers with a limit of 50,000 MT for any one entity. Limit companies to 500,000 MT and farmers to 500,000 MT.

Anyone else have other thoughts?

[blackjack]

I think also there will be changes coming these are some things I would like to see.
1) Pay me my money up front no waiting a whole year to get paid.

2) Get rid of all A and B series contacts I don't see why they need them anyway.

3) Let me lock up a price myself off of Minneapolis, and Kansas wheat etc.

4) I want to deal with the maltsters myself if they tell they don't want my barley, well enough then.

[sawfly]

how about a tendering process for the million tonnes, with the proceeds going back to all producers.

[GrainVac]

50,000t for one entity? If I want to put my wheat tonnes to "other than a pool" that only leaves room for another 60-70 guys that deal with the same company I do. We all know the market concentration in AB as for as grain handling goes. In my area there is probably enough interest to do the entire thing just at our local terminal. I'm not interested in doing my own exporting but would rather deal in an open market direct with a competitive grain company and eliminate the CWB functions. 50K t per entity suits all the smaller companies and producer owned terminals but can they really perform in an open market for export sales like the big guys? Anyone have any experience it? I've heard any NB grain like canola for example is simply done through one of the bigger companies anyway. Can't see a company limit as a solution...

[Incognito]

Sawfly:

Try for a minute to think outside of the collective. You are not Borg. 7 of 9 did it - so can you!

[sawfly]

i keep trying it just dosent work. sorry

[sawfly]

toughgoofit
Be carful what you wish for. About priceing directly off minn. and kansas.

go to the board site and look in the historical price charts. Look at the 2004-5 and 2005-6 CWRS and CWHW. then pick the likely times you would have sold based on kansas or minn. Then compare that to the last pros and come back and tell much more money you would have made.
if you are a durham grower the board has probably put and extra 1$ a bushell in your pocket most of the last 10 years

[sawfly]

Sawfly, I tried to find those charts like you said but after a 1/2 hour trying I give up.

Icnognito I also would like to add to my list a website that is easier to use. Sheesh

[sawfly]

tg of it if your computer wont do adobe PDF files dont bother looking

if it will
go to board site top of page click (farmer payment contracts).
go down left side of page 4th from bottom is (historical priceing ) click .
now in center of page look for ( last updated) go to the third one down the (2005-6 FPC &BPC ) click . the charts on pages (6-10 ) look at page 6 for sure

the fifth one down is (2004-5 FPC&BPC ), click pages are 5 to 15 ( Look at page 5 for sure)
some types of grain the board didnt do all that well but others were excellent . decide for your self

[chaffmeister]

Sawfly:

Those charts on the CWB website are showing the PRO and the related futures. (Ex: Mpls HRS futures alongside the PRO for #1 CWRS 13.5) This is a bit like comparing apples to oranges unless you are aware of the cash markets in question and/or the appropriate spreads. Mpls futures are meant to reflect Mpls prices; the PRO on the other hand reflects instore Vancouver prices for Canadian wheat. All else being equal, Canadian prices on the west coast should be higher than Mpls prices. But by how much?

The chart for #1 CWRS 13.5 vs Mpls shows the median (mid-point) price of the futures over the time shown is about $185. This compares to the final PRO for that year of $204. In other words, the CWB final return is about $19 over the mid price of the Mpls futures over the year.

$19 over in Vancouver means about $30 under back on the farm in Saskatchewan. Is this a good basis relative to Mpls? That’s the question. And those charts don’t give you that answer.

Don’t let the pictures stray you from that – they may make it look like the CWB is doing an excellent job (relative to futures) but unless you know what the spread should be, we still don’t know how well the CWB did for you that year.

[Incognito]

Today's Closing Montana prices un USD:

US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat (with a minimum of 300 falling numbers and a
maximum of one percent total damage)
12 pct protein $4.39 -4.47 up 8
13 pct protein $4.79 -4.87 up 8
14 pct protein
Feb mostly $ 5.24 , ranging $5.19 -5.27 up 8
FH Aug NC $5.09 -5.21 up 7
LH Aug NC $5.04 -5.18 up 7
15 pct protein $5.43 -5.51 up 8

[malleefarmer]

Choice in marketing will deliver massive benefits to growers. Being forced to deal with one company uncontested has not resulted in many growers being better off. You do not need a single desk to pool grain to get an average price. Getting signals from market forces of climatic, currency and other forces will still change prices as it does now. When and how individuals respond to prices will be their CHOICE. Hindsight judgement does not improve anyones returns in any market let wheat and barley.I know im australian and your canadian and i should keep out of your debates but niether of us live a communist,totalitarin regime so why should we market our grain as if we do!!

[craig]

Follow up to the Montana prices. We have been tracking winter wheat, Lethbridge, Great Falls and even before the run up in wheat prices we seem to be about $.80 a bushel lower in Lethbridge. We can also argue that in terms of a consistant product we produce both better spring and winter wheat. That does not seem to be reflected in the market place.

[chaffmeister]

More on CWB charts comparing PRO to Mpls futures:

Looking for something unrelated to this, I happened to find on the MGEX website a basis chart showing the cash basis for 14% spring wheat in Mpls. In the 2004-2005 period that the CWB chart covered, the cash basis ranged from 11.5 cents per bu OVER the futures to 142 cents per bu OVER. The mid-point of these is 77 cents OVER – this works out to about C$32 per tonne premium to futures. I can’t think of a reason why this shouldn’t be what we compare the CWB PRO to.

So, as my previous post showed, the PRO (instore Vancouver) in that year was about $19 over the mid-point of the futures that year. This works back to mid-Sask at about $30 under Mpls ftrs. This is about $62 per tonne under Mpls cash.

So ..... The CWB’s total sales to all destinations that year netted you about $62 per tonne less than the mid-point Mpls cash price. Of course the CVD on Canadian wheat would likely have had an impact on this relationship – so we can’t blame the CWB solely.

The point here is not to show the CWB did a lousy job – we still don't have enough information to say that (or to support the CWB's efforts). The point here is - be careful how you interpret those charts, or any charts for that matter.

[TOM4CWB]

Chaff;

HAd VERY interesting chats with endusers that buy/bought grain from the CWB "single desk".


Why do the ADM's of the world LOVE the CWB SIngle desk? Especially in the domestic market?

Why has the CWB facilitated the buying out of our Canadian milling industry by ADM?

By the way I understand ADM mills about 50% of the flour in Canada now.

Why would these factors happen?