July long weekend... Market change?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I note that often a long weekend will bring a change to the market direction.

Have we seen the peak in the Canola market? I would say with stocks at levels they are at... with premiums to soy Canola is trading at $40/t... 70% chance we have seen the top for 2006.

Except.

Wheat.

The Dakotas are dry. Wheat has shown renewed strength.

Will we in western Canada get the showers needed... or the cool summer to fill this massive crop?

Hmmm.

If it has quit raining now... in the Northern tier... what would this do?

Wheat prices will spike higher no doubt.

Crude oil has not backed off... which bodes well for Canola... and keeps it bouyant.

The next week for the Northern Plains are to be above normal temps... with normal to below normal Precip.

Have we turned a corner on this northern crop? The growth is massive and we have a week of moisture in the ground and good growth ahead.

It looks as if showers and not general rains will be the grace givers...

I wouldn't bet on the US Corn and bean crop getting dried out!

If the USDA report is negative... Canola could be in trouble.

Wheat will track by itself for now... until the MT/Dakotas/Minn. get some good rain.

I think we are in for a ride... and we will not be the drivers of this market!

[cottonpicken]

Tom it is my opinion that the most important thing for the grains is a drop below .80 on the u.s dollar index.When this line in the sand has been crossed the techinicals will drive the dollar into the basement. The cando(canadian dollar) will go to par and commoddities will surge. Timeline before nov 7.