Malt pricing

[WRAPper]

Charlie or Lee

Moving now and next week last of 05 malt production, So 05 pool or 06 pool?
I'm leaning towards 06 based on what I feel are more positive signs for new crop prices.
Thoughts?

[melvill]

WRAPper, which pool you use depends on whether you're a bull or a bear on barley and that may depend on whether you're bullish feedgrains in general.

However, there are a few things to consider:
-06-07 corn carryout likely quite a bit lower than 05-06 unless there's a better than trend yield
-significant reduction in Canadian barley acres and the crop is a long way from being in the bin yet.
-recently USDA estimated US barley production for 2006 at 190 mil bu. down from 212 mil bu last year and 280 mil bu in 2004. If the US 06 barley crop comes in at that size, that is the lowest number since 1936.

The other side of the coin is that the EU, especially France, is harvesting a large and high quality barley crop and they had a large old-crop carry in.

All that said, I'm not bearish malt barley but I'm not dramatically bullish either.

Too bad you don't have more alternatives for malt barley pricing than just deciding which pool you put the grain in!

[cropduster]

Hey Mel...want to go to the ethanol info meeting in Vulcan?19th...Am.

[melvill]

Hey cropduster, what meeting is this? Where do I find more info?

Lee

[charliep]

My wish list on malt barley would be to have a daily pricing contract similar to that offered for wheat ex durum at a bare minimum. I hate the discussion about which crop year to sell into in general but particularly for malt barley. It demonstrates how far apart farmers are between the price signal and the logistical, quality (includes traits) and timing issues from the processor/maltster standpoint. I realize there are all the trucking programs, low protein premium and value added initiative programs (plus interest/storage) on malt barley contracts. I would just like to see a price that farmers can re-act to.

[Zaphod]

Just another thought. With a smaller Aussie crop and higher proteins in Canada (hot & dry) conditions, malt barley could have some upside in 06.

[melvill]

Good point. I forgot to mention Australia. Remember, though, that it's a little early to write off the Aussie crop. It has just been seeded and will soon go or has gone into winter dormancy. Fall conditions determine acres seeded but it's their spring and summer conditions that determine yield. Yield tends to be a bigger determiner of overall production than acres seeded.

[wd9]

Ahhh malt, once the best is gone, the best is left. Protein may not be as big a factor if yields are short.

[WRAPper]

The Canadian Prairies will be cooler than normal, as well as wetter than normal for late summer and early fall, says agricultural forecasters from EarthSat Weather Services’ Cropcast in a monthly long range forecast. “The spring wheat and canola crops will see favorable development, but there is a concern that the cool, wet forecast could be a problem for the main harvest period,” Cropcast said.

[melvill]

I don't know about your dryland, WRAPper, but my dryland wheat ain'ta gonna make it to late summer to wait for a drink. The only drinking done at that time will be the combine operator while he's wishing he wasn't combininb 50-bushel straw for 25 bushels of grain in the tank!!

[silverback]

25 bu is turning into a dream in this area after producing massive straw.

Crops burning up.

Won't a wet fall just be great for our quality again!! Can't wait for the wheat board to help us market #3/4 again this year.

[WRAPper]

One thing is they call it a forecast not an actualcast, And yes four days of 32 in southern Alberta coming up is going to make a heck of a cut in a few crops, the good land is holding well but the sandier stuff is sliding.