Watch Feed Grains Prices

[melvill]

Hey, WRAPper, I was eating dust this past weekend, too. Combined one field of AC Lillian that yielded about 26 or 27 bu/ac. Field right next to it the field was 1/2 Lillian and 1/2 AC Abby. Yield was 14 or 15 - due to unavoidable problems - seeded two weeks later

Most noticeable, though, there was a noticeable difference in appearance of the Lillian - fewer shrunk kernals - compared to the Abbey in the same field.

Boy, could I have used a slurpie while I hauled grain. My city-nephew - planner for the City of Calgary - ran the combine.

[rain]

IAMTHEMOLE remember however if you order the 25 car spot delivery could be anywhere inside a 5 day time frame and you will most likelely only have 2-3 days to move it. Switching to corn is not for the feint hearted.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

If one were to switch to corn you should have more than one source feeding your pipeline. I think it is early yet to consider switching to it.
The main execise here is that barley will not rally without a rally in corn. If it does get too far out of whack, some will change. Much more affordable with a 90 cent dollar versus a 65 cent dollar.

[melvill]

Of course, the other, often forgotten about, part of the corn/barley pipeline is the feeder cattle pipeline. If barley gets too far out of line with corn, more feeders will move south. We've seen quite a bit of that movement already this year.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Excellent point. But what about northwestern US cattle. Last I heard packing plants were running slow around those parts. If corn prices get running could we see these cattle head north?

[charliep]

I will also note again the relatively tight corn supply in the US and the impact of the ethanol plants. In partiular, I find interesting (perhaps better termed confusing) the impact of the location of US ethanol plants on where US cattle are fed (as well as regional corn pricing) and the impact of distillers grains (wet and dry) on feeding location/economics. The industry is entering into a new and exciting world.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

There sure is a lot of them around. Think they are having difficulty getting full value for thier DDG's.
Lower protein than soymeal keeps fair valued soymeal in the ration. Soymeal looks like it will remain flat priced to lower for the near future. Biodiesel vs ethanol

[rain]

Corn Canadian dollar Rail Car $128.00 Delivered Central Alberta (Red Deer South). Truck load lots $140.00. This price as of August 25. 2006. Deliverd Corn would be $138.00, easy conversion is barley is worth 80% of corn would put barley at $110.40 before least cost formulas would kick it out. Feed lots can switch up to higher energy grains like wheat and corn. Once you switch up it is almost impossible to go back down if supply is disrupted.

Feed wheat is trading 110.00 Delivered central Alberta right now.

What is Malt barley worth after all deductions?

[rain]

IAMTHEMole. It is easy to see you are in the feedlot industry. Barley can go a long way without corn helping. I remember barley trading with a $75.00 basis and I was plenty pleased with that year. If I had locked in normal basis that year I would have have netted an extra $1.30 a bushel. I still got $3.95 for the barley.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Hey Rain, Easy big fella, don't kill the messenger. You seem to think I'm fudging numbers. I'm not. Feed barley and feed wheat at current cash numbers will keep it out. $138.00/mt del for barley, with corn staying where it is at now, will not last for long. Cattle will leave or corn will be brought in. Cattle can also be changed from corn to barley and back to corn with little problem. Takes a graduated change over 5 days. Of course you are adjusting for difference in energy values.