Drought in Aust

[malleefarmer]

The weather here in Aust in a word is shocking and outlook is grim.
Aust will be lucky to produce 12 to 14 mill tonne i think USDA are still factoring in a 21 mill tonne crop.
And its basically aust wide,west aust is diabolical,SAust is below ave and falling,victoria is a basket case and NSW is grim
The wheat market is yet to factor this in.
Will keep you all informed as season progresses

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee,

There are some big surprises in western Canada as well.

I did our first spring wheat yesterday... enough straw for 60bu/ac... it is going 42bu/ac.

The winter wheat did well @ 65bu/ac on my select Radiant seed with 50lbN applied cause I don't want lodging in the seed feild. Low spots were up to 100.

In our area we could easily see a 30% reduction from normal yeilds... on all crops. 37C cooked our crops... I guess we need corn and beans that can take the heat. It will be interesting to see how the Canola ends up.

I wonder how much longer the funds can push these prices lower.

[agstar77]

Our yields are good for wheat 40 plus but others are not so lucky. Yields for wheat down. Canola is a horror story 60 bus straw and 30 bus yield. Most are in the 15 to 30 bus. area. Heat in july took its toll. Hopefully what we have will be worth more. Don't be anxious to sell unless you have too. There is word of another rushing plant in Manitoba as well as St. Agathe expanding. In a word biodiesel.

[silverback]

I can hear it now,

"The CWB today announced another bumper crop for the designated area. Yields are coming in way above average and farmers are very pleased. Management expects that prices for farmers will decline due to large worldwide crops and large ending stocks. Quality issues will also challenge the board and they expect to have difficulty finding markets for all this production".

[wd9]

Guys here in NE Alberta been getting 30 to 40 on peas. For the last few years that means 30 to 40 on wheat and 25 to 30 canola and 60 to 70 on barley. It works out every year based on pea yields as an early indicator of the rest of the crops yield numbers.

[malleefarmer]

I know plenty of guys working out the economics of cutting wheat for hay rather than harvesting at the minute as weather forecasts expect continuing decline
my normal yields are 30 bushels at the minute im hoping for 15 with some rain that is if it doesnt .........

[melvill]

mallee, would you mind telling us where in Aussie-land your farm is and when you harvest your main crops. Some are winter crops and some are spring-seeded, right? Which ones are fall seeded crops and which ones are spring seeded?

[charliep]

Thanks for everyones comments.

Any early comments on quality.

Realizing that yields in most areas will be in the average plus or minus a bit, I am an optimist from the gross revenue per acre side. Better quality and slightly higher prices are the reason for the optimism from gross revenue side. I also don't know if the markets have 100 % taken into consideration the growing demand side (bio fuels). Will be an interesting and positive year.