Charlie;
I see this on US wheat associates:
http://www.uswheat.org/justReleased/doc/5B186C1FA9947FF2852571EE00672B94?OpenDocument#
"Severe drought this year reduced HRW production by 29 percent (7.3 MMT) and HRS by nine percent (1.2 MMT), one of the reasons why U.S. bread wheat prices are up. By July, HRW cash FOB prices were $64/MT, or 43 percent higher than July 2005. HRS prices were up $30/MT, or 17 percent. The increase initially put U.S. bread wheats at a price disadvantage to competitor supplies. For example, on July 15, U.S. HRW was offered to Egypt at $207/MT, while wheat with alternative quality parameters were lower with Canadian CWRS offered at $179, German and French at $154 and Russian at $143.
Prices of U.S. soft wheats did not follow HRS and HRW. Although production in the Black Sea region, a major competitor with U.S. soft wheats, fell considerably due to winterkill and drought, ample supplies and high production in both Canada and the United States helped keep supply up and prices down. In the July 15 Egyptian tender U.S. SW was offered at $144/MT, U.S. SRW at $147 and Canadian SRW at $146. Compared to July 2005, U.S. SRW export prices had gained $13/MT, or ten percent, and SW increased only one percent, or $2/MT.
As summer in North American ended, dry conditions in Argentina and Australia continued, adding to concerns over a tightened wheat supply situation. The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released last week forecasts a 20 percent (5 MMT) production decline in Australia, and an 11 percent decline (2 MMT) in Argentina compared to the 10-year average. However, the start of harvest in the Southern Hemisphere is still two months away and crop yields may yet be improved by rain.
Finally, dramatic price action in August resulted when drought and heat ravaged crops in Northern Europe, particularly France and Germany. Two weeks of persistent rain then delayed harvest and damaged grain quality. The WASDE forecasts a three percent (4 MMT) decline in production in the EU from last year.
Offers for an Egyptian tender illustrate the worldwide price increase. Offers of French wheat were made the week of September 11 at $183/MT, up 19 percent ($30/MT) from the July 15 tender. Russian wheat was offered at $179, up 25 percent ($36/MT), and Australian soft wheat was offered at $184, up 15 percent ($24/MT) in two months.
Yet U.S. bread wheat prices have actually fallen over the same time. U.S. HRW export prices were $203/MT on September 13, down from $207 in July. HRS was at $176/MMT, down from $205. Although U.S. soft wheat prices are up more than 10 percent, they remain the most competitively priced wheat in the world."
Charlie;
Where are the indicators that the CWB is "extracting a premium" for "designated area" wheat growers?
Did I miss something?
When the Basis has been narrowing on lower quality Russian, Black Sea, and Argentinian wheats... why have our Winter and CPS Basis levels got worse?
Can anyone fill us in here?
Ianben... what is going on in Great Britan?
Mallee... how about in AU?
I see this on US wheat associates:
http://www.uswheat.org/justReleased/doc/5B186C1FA9947FF2852571EE00672B94?OpenDocument#
"Severe drought this year reduced HRW production by 29 percent (7.3 MMT) and HRS by nine percent (1.2 MMT), one of the reasons why U.S. bread wheat prices are up. By July, HRW cash FOB prices were $64/MT, or 43 percent higher than July 2005. HRS prices were up $30/MT, or 17 percent. The increase initially put U.S. bread wheats at a price disadvantage to competitor supplies. For example, on July 15, U.S. HRW was offered to Egypt at $207/MT, while wheat with alternative quality parameters were lower with Canadian CWRS offered at $179, German and French at $154 and Russian at $143.
Prices of U.S. soft wheats did not follow HRS and HRW. Although production in the Black Sea region, a major competitor with U.S. soft wheats, fell considerably due to winterkill and drought, ample supplies and high production in both Canada and the United States helped keep supply up and prices down. In the July 15 Egyptian tender U.S. SW was offered at $144/MT, U.S. SRW at $147 and Canadian SRW at $146. Compared to July 2005, U.S. SRW export prices had gained $13/MT, or ten percent, and SW increased only one percent, or $2/MT.
As summer in North American ended, dry conditions in Argentina and Australia continued, adding to concerns over a tightened wheat supply situation. The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released last week forecasts a 20 percent (5 MMT) production decline in Australia, and an 11 percent decline (2 MMT) in Argentina compared to the 10-year average. However, the start of harvest in the Southern Hemisphere is still two months away and crop yields may yet be improved by rain.
Finally, dramatic price action in August resulted when drought and heat ravaged crops in Northern Europe, particularly France and Germany. Two weeks of persistent rain then delayed harvest and damaged grain quality. The WASDE forecasts a three percent (4 MMT) decline in production in the EU from last year.
Offers for an Egyptian tender illustrate the worldwide price increase. Offers of French wheat were made the week of September 11 at $183/MT, up 19 percent ($30/MT) from the July 15 tender. Russian wheat was offered at $179, up 25 percent ($36/MT), and Australian soft wheat was offered at $184, up 15 percent ($24/MT) in two months.
Yet U.S. bread wheat prices have actually fallen over the same time. U.S. HRW export prices were $203/MT on September 13, down from $207 in July. HRS was at $176/MMT, down from $205. Although U.S. soft wheat prices are up more than 10 percent, they remain the most competitively priced wheat in the world."
Charlie;
Where are the indicators that the CWB is "extracting a premium" for "designated area" wheat growers?
Did I miss something?
When the Basis has been narrowing on lower quality Russian, Black Sea, and Argentinian wheats... why have our Winter and CPS Basis levels got worse?
Can anyone fill us in here?
Ianben... what is going on in Great Britan?
Mallee... how about in AU?
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