Spot Barley $125/Spot Corn $150/ MT

[rain]

My point boys is what are you going to do. Take some basis and ride. Loose money on basis if futures continue to run? Stick your heads in the sand and cry when its all over? We have been here before if cotten picken is right lock in basis now!

[malleefarmer]

On farm price for barley on farm in Aust today is Feed 1 $220 and Malt 1 $245 that aust dollars of course which equates to 183 canadian for feed and 204.33 for malt at exchange rate of .834 ie our dollar is 83 candian cents.
Thats cash price with drought premium/basis the export pool on the other hand is $137 aust on farm or $114 canadian and for malt 1 export pool $180.60 aust or $141.87 canadian
cheers the drought is getting worse and worse despite what ever reports youve heard we had hottest oct 4th day on record here this week 36 c and crops are flowering or filling and the later sown crop are just frying up except another 20 to 25% reduction out of aust the usda report probably wont report it until nov/dec

[Pulseman]

Why is everyone wondering about what is happening? Two years of oversupply of feed, this year good quality of export grain, good demand and bingo the feeders are scabbeling to fill the bins. Will see if this is a test for market highs, like 02/03 with C$200 for Bly and 96 with C$190.
Lethbridge bit today (06/10/06)was 132.30 pickedup.
High freigth cost support Alberta/Sask. product over Great Lakes corn, as well as ever increasing demand. Corn US$6.00? Lethbridge Bly C$220/MT??
What are the supply/demand #'s?

[WRAPper]

Cotton pickin
Out of the goodness of my heart I will sell you all of our this years production of wheat for the lowlow price of 10 dollars a bushel, you can then sit on it for a year and make your 20 just by holding it for a little while a 100% Return on investment. Please send the cheque with the first truck..........(lol)

[cottonpicken]

Smart money,charlie,are the guys that know where the market is going.Granted some money is made shorting(catching a falling knife)but the guys that know the who,what,when,where,why of the market place usually put their money in early.In your infinite wisdom charlie what were you doing in 99' when oil was 10$ a barrel?Buying oil stocks?Personally I never bought mine until 27$-which i posted on this board. I think you need to pull up a copper chart and you will see the potential of wheat.The pessimestic b.s that comes out of farmers these days makes me want to puke!!A BUSHELL OF WHEAT=A BARREL OF OIL-It happened in your lifetime.Sweat,tears and blood create wealth and nothing else.


-pill

[cottonpicken]

Wrap-i'll just bye my neighbours for half that and sit on it for a 400% gain.Why dont you enlighten us all on where you think things are going.Be specific-no chicken sh*ts allowed.

[WRAPper]

Rats now I have to wait for it to go to 10 myself before I can sell huh.

I'm very reticent to boldly claim I know whats going to happen I can see trends but with spec funds out there we are as much into territory where market psychology is having as much influence as market fundamentals. Our job as producers is to try and understand fund psychology and take advantage of the fund driven highs.(spikes) I'm not a speculator I'm a producer and I try and keep the two separate. ( though all producers speculate a little each year at planting time I suppose)The #1 difference between oil and wheat is that the production of oil is largely in the hands of a few while wheat is in the hands of many.
Will we see 20 dollar wheat I sure like too but If we see a spike above 6.00 I will be taking a serious look at the fundamentals and at pricing remaining stocks and a portion of future crops. Take in to account that natural gas is weaker than last year and therefore so is fertilizer. And cost of production will be down with lower fuel prices. I never underestimate the worlds ability to rampup prduction if the price signal are there as we haven't yet reached the point where land use outstrips land availability.
Absolutely Australia is getting pounded by drought (sorry Mallee) Argentina is dry and India is buying.
But moisture conditions are improving across the northern tier states (Oklahoma is still dry) New crop KC wheat is lower than old crop by .35 cents a signal that the market believes production will stabilize.
Short term (1-3 months) we may see further strength longer term we'll see 4.50 Kansas wheat before we see 20.
Since you're into charts heres the analysis of Fridays close with almost every type of chart and methodology discussed.

What they are saying in simple english is the charts feel futher upward is likely but make sure you have sellstops in place below the market to protect yourself when this thing heads down .
Good luck but it's sure nicer discussing how high it'll go versus how low it'll go huh?

Analysis
Fri 10/6/06

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be picking up a bit, as evidenced by an increasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Given that we closed at a 45 bar new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is greatly increased. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (75.50) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (19.43) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (244.60) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (244.60) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. Adding bullish pressure the market just reached a 45 bar new high.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.84). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 68.84), but given the 45 bar new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. And, the market just put in a 45 bar new high here. Look for more new highs.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP.The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs. However, be careful to avoid buying in an overbought market. RSI or MACD may be helpful here.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal. The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 82.24); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 82.96); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation

Hope that was detailed enough for yah.

[cottonpicken]

Wrap,i think your ignoring macro factors that are driving the market. Once the u.s dollar breaks below 80 on the index look out below.We will have a major drop and the commodities will jump.The world is a wash in liquidity and it is looking for a return.Short term anything can happen but one year out i will be looking for prices far north of 6$.As far as natural gas supplies we are in deep s@#t.95% of the calories we consume are based on oil and energy.It is hard for people to grasp or believe this but this is the link between wheat and oil.All your technical indicaters are important but the fundementals of the market are more important.I am a market speculater who does have an opinion on where things are going.When the value of the grains is swinging over 10% a week EVERY FARMER is a speculater whether they know it or not. There are many aspects to farming and knowing the value of what you produced is #1 IMO.

[cowman]

Maybe a little bit off here but I always figure the big solution to high prices is the resulting wreck of low prices? Think about that?
The price of wheat /barley goes sky high...great for the grain farmer...devastating for the hog/beef farmer? Drive them under and where do you go from there?
Always more dumbies ready to take the risk, right?
Well I hate to tell you this...we are rapidly running out of dumbies! Check the farm age in this country? No new dumbies!
Have no fear you can always sell to the rest of the world, right? That would be the rest of the world that doesn't have a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out of!

[silverback]

I haven't seen a lot of trouble in the feedlot side of things for a long time Cowman.

The disaster of BSE was not very equally shared with the big feedlot boys, or even some of the smaller ones. When barley was being bought by them for $2 or less, they were making out quite well.

The grain side of the equation needs some years of decent prices to make up what has been lost, namely equity.

[Pulseman]

I am so very much worried that higher grain prices will cut in to the profit of the poor feedlot multies, Cowman. Thus gents have stolen from us long enough, the problem is fair share of the cake. But it seems when Bly is $1.50 you never complain.

[NeilS]

Hey cottonpicken

I see it much the same way as you do.

I talk of $8 wheat this year and get a lot of scepticism, and some derision. None-the-less, I am very bullish on ag commodities this year and for the next few.

Neil S