Drought in Australia, Question for Mallee Farmer

[NeilS]

In another thread, you said "the drought is getting worse and worse despite what ever reports youve heard we had hottest oct 4th day on record here this week 36 c and crops are flowering or filling and the later sown crop are just frying up except another 20 to 25% reduction out of aust"

Do you speak of your area or Australia as a whole? How is your own situation there? How is the outlook for the country?

I hear unofficial reports and postings of production levels that are worse than the agency prognostigations (USDA, ABARE etc). Sounds like it could be bad.

I do know what a brutal drought is like, and hope that you and your compatriots come through ok. Our thoughts are with you.

[TOM4CWB]

NeilS;

Record temperatures next week: meteorologist
October 7, 2006 - 9:24PM


Australia's southern and eastern states should prepare for a heatwave next week, meteorologists say.

Temperatures will soar into the 30s in Western Australia early in the week, especially along the west and south coasts, forecaster Weatherzone said today in a statement.

South Australia will bear the brunt of the scorching conditions on Wednesday, with temperatures climbing into the low 40s, it said.

The heatwave will move across to NSW and Victoria on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s expected, Weatherzone said.

Meteorologist Matt Pearce said the heat had been building over the Pilbara in recent weeks, with mid-40s temperatures.

"Northwesterly winds will then drag this hot air down across the southern and eastern states next week," he said.

"It is possible that some high temperature records will be broken, especially in South Australia on Wednesday and NSW on Thursday."

AAP
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/10/07/1159641576913.html?from=top5

THis can't be good...

[malleefarmer]

Niel my own piece of dirt i expect to harvest in bushels per acre probably a high of 12 bushels of wheat down to a low of zero of course and barley maybe 18 to 24 average it is lighter soil.
My average usually is 30 bushels wheat and 48 for barley.
But alot of australia will not harvest and alot is already laying down for hay.Will post some district reports next week or today even

[malleefarmer]

PS re toms post i come from south aust so will give you actual temps for wed that night
We also have our first bank forclosure on oct 29th in our district so we also inform you of the outcome.
You all know what a forced sale does to equity levels of nieghbouring farms.
If you guys can put up with my posts i can post heaps it sort of helps keep my sanity reading your problems in canada seems as though doesnt matter were you farm in the world mother nature can turn on you

[Jagfarms]

malleefarmer

Do you know of Brendan Smart in the Keith, Bordertown area? I worked on his farm back in 1990-1991. Is he he still farming down there.


Jason

[NeilS]

I found the following article from The Age:
------------------------------------
No pain, no grain: 87% of crops tipped to fail

Philip Hopkins
October 9, 2006

AUSTRALIA'S winter grain crop is in serious trouble and in many areas — especially in Victoria — the prognosis is terminal, leading agribusiness analyst ProFarmer has concluded.

"We should now be planning around a full-on drought/widespread crop failure situation," said ProFarmer's managing director Richard Koch.

He said the Victorian crop was "now in a world of hurt".

"Most areas in the north will be tossing a coin about whether to harvest or let the livestock in," Mr Koch said.

"The thing about Victoria is that crops are universally bad, with few, if any, areas likely to have anything like average yields."

Despite a bit of rain last month, the Victorian crop had backpedalled sharply, he said.

Mr Koch said Australia was heading for one of its worst crop harvests ever.

In 67 per cent of shires, yields would rank in the lowest 30 per cent of long-term yield averages, adjusted for productivity improvements.

"The large majority of the crop — 87 per cent — will fail to achieve average yields," Mr Koch said. "In areas that harvest early, it is now almost too late for rain to make any difference."

Mr Koch said NSW and South Australia had been hit almost as badly as Victoria. There was some improvement in Queensland, but mainly in the inner Darling Downs where winter crop plantings were limited.

Western Australia was a mixed bag, with the crop showing signs of stabilisation.

The ProFarmer analysis found that 93 per cent of the Victorian crop was very poor, compared with 57 per cent in August.

The remaining 7 per cent was poor, compared with 29 per cent in August. None of the crop registered fair, good or very good.

Australia-wide, 67 per cent of the crop was judged very poor, compared with 50 per cent in August. Of the rest, 20 per cent was poor (down from 34 per cent in August), while 9 per cent (down from 13 per cent) was fair and 3 per cent (down from 4 per cent) was good. No crop was judged very good.

Wheat exporter AWB last week slashed its full-year wheat production forecast to 12-15 million tonnes.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Research Economics forecast in its September crop report that winter crop production would plummet 36 per cent to 26 million tonnes this year.

Wheat output was tipped to fall to nearly 16.4 million tonnes, while barley was set to drop 41 per cent to 5.8 million tonnes.
------------------------------------

Malee:
Your postings on this subject are welcome, so if you want to post some more, please do. Thanks

[malleefarmer]

Brendan Smart has retired
Kieth is probably having its worst year ever as is alot of australia

[Jagfarms]

Thanks Malleefarmer for the info.

Are his sons still farming?

[malleefarmer]

Think the whole lot is sold