Monday morning Pro/Con 16/10/06

[WRAPper]

I'll just explain quickly what I think would add something to the board a quick pro about a commodity or a con about one. May develop a market indication from the postings. I'm hoping thus can stay a Rhetoric free idea.......

[WRAPper]

Canola pro- US Soybean crushings and exportwill need to be boosted by 7.7 million tonnes to meet projected export demands
Canola Con- estimated 900000 tonnes in supply pipeline will keep nearby basis levels up.

[ado089]

The US would prefer to trade with a friendly such as Canada prior to South America. Maybe they will be willing to pay a slight premium for canadian canola over S.A. beans. Not to mention the more vegetable oils that are being used for bio diesel the less supply there will be for edible oils. It's time for a huge educational and marketing delegation to boost the health benefits of canola oil over other veg. oils. Let's stop producing a commodity and start marketing a product.

[NeilS]

WRAPper

If the added canola crush capacity recently announced all comes onstream, that .9 M tonnes will drain out of that pipeline rather quickly. This will not affect things for a couple of years, of course.

In the meantime, added draw from biofuel crush offshore will also help draw down supplies. I dont see the pipeline as being very ominous, and I am a canola bull longer term.

[WRAPper]

Lee , Charlie I feel your pain.............I didn't want a discussion on what I put I was hopin that other people would just put some little tidbits of market information on this thread to see if we could develop a better market info/intelligence on a week by week basis.
It might not happen. Thanks for the "opinions" guys but it's not what I was trying to get here.

[melvill]

Good idea, WRAPper, especially the rhetoric-free zone. Can you give users a little more of an idea of what you have in mind?

I know that there are a lot of lurkers - people who read but don't post - here. Maybe we can get some of them to add some input.

[melvill]

Wheat:

Fixed Price quotes today:
CWRS PRO=$209.00 Fixed Price=$225.80
July 14 FPC high = $229.46.

CPSR PRO=$175.00 Fixed Price=$198.92
July 14 FPC high = $185.33

The CPSR fixed price - and perhaps the CWRS one - is a giant "do something" message, something like a visit to the head by your spouse's rolling pin. Grin.

[WRAPper]

Lee what I had thought might be interesting and informative was that if at the start of each week a person sat down and put in one or two short tidbits of marketing information be it pro(positive) or con(negative) Knowledge is power and despite the fact I read alot I miss lots and I may have heard or saw something that you haven't and vice versa, thats where I see the power of this and of a site like the commodity section here on agriville.

If everyone that came on here put one piece of information each Monday Morning(or Sunday night) it would be a good way to start the marketing week. And there would be alot of good marketing info shared. Be it a good /bad local basis level or a disease outbreak or a new market for a product or the loss of one etc etc. Just a couple pieces of info to be shared with all the other agrivillians. Pure fact no discussion for a change. Alot of it might be widely known but there are alot of well read people on here that tend to glean info from a wide variety of sources. We'll give it a couple weeks of trying on Monday Mornings and see if it "takes root" and grows.

[SASKFARMER3]

Excellent IDEA, EXCELLENT

[cottonpicken]

Very,very good idea!
My opinion on last weeks action is wow!What a ride up.But, always a but, to far to fast in corn,oat and wheat. Our uptrend line is intact but is unstable in the short term,I hope we keep going but selling into the rhino horn makes you money.I've rode my share up and then all the way down again more times than i've sold into so take this with a grain of salt.The problem,in my mind,is the battle of technicals vs fundamentals.I and lots of farmers know what wheat should be worth but the hot shot traders that move "billions" around are the market makers and shakers.Farmers themselves have very little influence on the paper market which in turn controls the price of everything.You dont have to grow canola to buy and sell canola. I'm not sure if everybody understands this paper game but its important.

W****r has hit the nail on the head because nobody can keep up with everything.I've spent 3 years on technical charting and I'm still a complete novice.What ever anyone says on agriville or anywhere else make sure you due your own due diligence (DYODD) and dont blame any own else for your decisions.This sometimes becomes a problem on other sites.

What i "think" is going up is soybeans,canola,flax,lentils,n.gas,lumber,and sugar.The rare earth elments are also getting interesting with whats been coming out of chinas mouth.

I strongly urge people to read jim rodgers.He will make you an optimist.

good luck and good fortune


-pilly

[crusher]

Wheat and canola may be hitting resistance. I made some small sales to reward the market.

Have a solid plan for wheat by the end of the month because of the Series A signup deadline, new PRO's and the cutoff of basis contracts. I would anticipate the nonboard will disappear for a while after that. Enough said.

[WRAPper]

Sorry Crusher no rhetoric or personal marketing decisions in this thread only facts.......it's now tuesday no more posts here please until next Monday........on a new thread. Thanks

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher;

I'm with you... I can't see how this can last in the short term.

I told myself if we got back to these lofty levels we should sell... if we add the $7.50/t ($233/t)CWB theft value we are at a high going way back on the FPC... but at least we know what our quality is now.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... it will be hard to keep killing off the Ausie crop over and over!

[AdamSmith]

Use monthly charts to help make next years rotation decisions.

Use weekly charts to help develop a sales plan for your current inventory.

Use daily charts to manage short term pricing objectives.

Once I'm "in the mood to sell" I use a 9 day stochastic indicator to tell me when to pull the trigger" If your in the mood to sell, any time the 9 day stochastic gets above 80 your not going to make a bad decision selling.

Pro
If you have to do any pricing out of Canola in the near future ie within the next week or two the 9 day stochastics are in the mid 80's on the Nov Canola. It's a signal that momentem may be about to stall.


Con

If you wait until %K crosses back over %D using such a short term indicator you may have given back half the rally.

[TOM4CWB]

WRAPper;

I guess your not happy with me either!

I think anyone with a marketing thought... should speak up on Monday decisions!

Let's not discriminate!