Time to start 2007 grain marketing?

[TOM4CWB]

Incognito,

Have you heard many sales being made on 2007 grains?

$30 under Nov 07 Canola was one offer this morning... too steep for me... maybe $20 under?

[wd9]

Tom, good question. The effects of extra crushing on canola won't probably hit till the 08 crop, as will biodiesel maybe a year or two after that. $7.42 at Lloyd today for March - 8 cents away from the top of the bell curve.

Did you get any prices Mar 08?

[TOM4CWB]

WD9;

$7.48 Nov 07;
$7.39 Sept 07;

I did a futures only @ $345/t...

Couldn't get a decent basis at my local elevator...


The word on the floor is that they are going to need to buy Canola acres... Jan to be the next high?

[Incognito]

I never have and never will subscribe to the "they need to buy acres" theory.

Target from here to end of the year should be 7.00 to 7.50 for canola.

From January to July from 7.50 to 8.00.

Aussie cnl crop is 560K. They need to crush that much. Think they will import CAD CNL and turn a blind eye to GMO?

Too much soybean rust occuring in the U.S. right now - as high up as IL. Not gonna effect this year - it will next year.

Profit not price and each of you have different profit points.

[wd9]

Incognito, since the events GT73 and MS8RF3 aren't approved it is unlikely they will take seed, but maybe import oil instead. Same effect at the end of the day though.

Tom4CWB, Incognito, think canola will continue to rise? Seems already overvalued re world price, but with the potential health claim blends for food to get it on the package - only takes 4 gms per serving, who knows what the potential draw will be.

[Incognito]

RSI for cnl versus bean oil, palm and the matif make cnl look toppy but they are all in an uptrend. Funds adding to bo again. Even Dubya talked about biodiesel last week. It was stupid, but he mentioned it. How many canola acres going to stay out in sask?

[wd9]

Just got AB #'s 96% of which less than 1% cnl of the 4% remaining. Two weeks ago 88%. Sask I believe almost the same.

[wd9]

Oh yeah and the guess seems still at 8.5 mln tonne crop. Incognito, what are the traders saying?

Seems they and exporters were right at 8.5 this summer, and um many of us guessed at 7.5 when talking to that far off country that buys so much. We just couldn't see it happening from an agronomic point of view, but it did.

[TOM4CWB]

Incognito;

I believe the frosts in the US this winter will kill host plants back to the deep southern US... and perhaps right off the continent... then it must start creeping back up next summer again.

There are many who don't think the rust will effect much next year.

How does the rust work in Asia/China.. do the northern areas that freeze hard have a yearly problem?

With a record bean crop in the US... and a good size corn crop... it will be unlikely this bull market can be sustained.

[Incognito]

Canola demand is the wild card..

When will a noteworthy country ban transfats and what would it do to canola prices?

Wish the tree huggers would get on that kick...lol

[wd9]

The Conservatives seem to be deer in the headlights in terms of the transfat task force. No word, no motion. Will there be a mandate on BioD? Parity incentives with US? Infrastructure and value-added in Canada or US? Questions, questions. Minister Ambrose has given no hint, like nothing on the enviro. Guess she is waiting for what the minister wants her to say.

Canola demand should be strong, just as long as it doesn't lead the veg oil complex too fast. It still is cost of inputs to make food products that govern sales in the end. Japan should be rock solid 2 mmt conventional / 0.15mmt HOLL. Can't remember for sure but I think it was Pakistan evened up tarriffs on veg oil, that will help too.

Anyways, must return to being village idiot in that far off town Agri-ville.

[Zaphod]

There's little downside in 06/07. Every time the market drops a few bucks, there's buyers like China lined up to buy.

Next year, I'm expecting a big increase in acres. If farmers plant 13 million acres when canola prices are in the 5's and 6's, what's going to happen if they're $7 or higher? The only limit would be if cereal prices stay higher too.

Even so, demand from the EU for oil will keep our crushers buying full tilt. No Aussie canola will be available until Dec 07 either.

I'm in no rush to make sales. Let the rally run a little longer. A very typical marketing response after a long bottom is to price too early in a recovery.

[wd9]

Zaphod, there is 62 million acres in Canada, half is in Sask. Many guys have already gone to wheat canola or Lib canola, RR canola, wheat rotation. Seeing 17 million acres of canola is not out of the question.

[melvill]

Have to tell you - Charlie and I are in near-heaven listening to people thinking out loud about marketing strategies for the 07 crop!!

Has this forward-thinking discussion been going on for years and we've missed it or is this a relatively new thing?

Ah, who cares. It's music to our ears.

[craig]

CWB contract programs confusing. With the changes happening I'm finding it confusing. If I want to price off U.S futures for 2007 crop year do I have to wait till February or do I need to do something before the end of October that will allow me that option over the winter.