Time to start 2007 grain marketing?

[wd9]

The Conservatives seem to be deer in the headlights in terms of the transfat task force. No word, no motion. Will there be a mandate on BioD? Parity incentives with US? Infrastructure and value-added in Canada or US? Questions, questions. Minister Ambrose has given no hint, like nothing on the enviro. Guess she is waiting for what the minister wants her to say.

Canola demand should be strong, just as long as it doesn't lead the veg oil complex too fast. It still is cost of inputs to make food products that govern sales in the end. Japan should be rock solid 2 mmt conventional / 0.15mmt HOLL. Can't remember for sure but I think it was Pakistan evened up tarriffs on veg oil, that will help too.

Anyways, must return to being village idiot in that far off town Agri-ville.

[Zaphod]

There's little downside in 06/07. Every time the market drops a few bucks, there's buyers like China lined up to buy.

Next year, I'm expecting a big increase in acres. If farmers plant 13 million acres when canola prices are in the 5's and 6's, what's going to happen if they're $7 or higher? The only limit would be if cereal prices stay higher too.

Even so, demand from the EU for oil will keep our crushers buying full tilt. No Aussie canola will be available until Dec 07 either.

I'm in no rush to make sales. Let the rally run a little longer. A very typical marketing response after a long bottom is to price too early in a recovery.

[wd9]

Zaphod, there is 62 million acres in Canada, half is in Sask. Many guys have already gone to wheat canola or Lib canola, RR canola, wheat rotation. Seeing 17 million acres of canola is not out of the question.

[melvill]

Have to tell you - Charlie and I are in near-heaven listening to people thinking out loud about marketing strategies for the 07 crop!!

Has this forward-thinking discussion been going on for years and we've missed it or is this a relatively new thing?

Ah, who cares. It's music to our ears.

[craig]

CWB contract programs confusing. With the changes happening I'm finding it confusing. If I want to price off U.S futures for 2007 crop year do I have to wait till February or do I need to do something before the end of October that will allow me that option over the winter.

[melvill]

Nope, craig, you can start now with pricing '07 crop. The only thing that is available is a basis contract and the only part of that that you can do is lock in the futures. That alternative has been available since October 2, 06.

Look at:
http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2007_index.html

The unknown with this alternative is that you have no idea what the basis will be until late February, 07. Of course, this CWB alternative is no different than doing a open-basis contract with a crusher or grain company for 07 canola or selling western barley futures as a hedge for next year's barley crop.

[wd9]

I agree Charlie. I see many resources burning out, we do need to focus on other parts of the business too.

What about peas, anyone have any sort of crystal ball in the shape of a pea? It seems the LDP of the US will continue to hamper Canadian pricing for green peas, but the market should be strong for yellow. It also seems many growers around here are fed up with peas agronomically so maybe the future is looking good. Hard to future price peas though.

I know I am struggling with whether or not to continue growing them although I never have had trouble marketing human peas and netting a good contribution margin on them - maybe one of the best CM's of all the crops.

[Zaphod]

17 million acres of canola? Yikes. But I still think the demand will be there.

With feedgrains and wheat trading at decent levels, canola will finally have some competition for acres. And what if oats stay at 2.25 or better? If you're a contrarian, try putting in flax. That market will be a dog for the rest of this year at least.

For peas, one thing I have heard is that US farmers are starting to shift from greens to yellows too. Not great news if it's true, but it's a bigger market than the greens. Just like red lentils vs Lairds

[wd9]

Zaphod, when I talked to the US Canola Grower guys they said the same thing. They are so #$%^%$$ at the LDP for peas in terms of canola because they were easier and cheaper to grow. Now they also realize yellows are easier to grow.

Anyone know the impact on Canadian malt exports and the challenges in Germany in terms of requirements from not enough malt? Roughly 500,000 tonnes that traditionally Australia was filling. Charlie, Lee, anything?

[cottonpicken]

Tom,you are one dumb turd and i feel sorry for anyone that listens to you about selling nov 07 grain.The more i read you the more i think your a buyer not a seller.