Time to start 2007 grain marketing?

[melvill]

Nope, craig, you can start now with pricing '07 crop. The only thing that is available is a basis contract and the only part of that that you can do is lock in the futures. That alternative has been available since October 2, 06.

Look at:
http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2007_index.html

The unknown with this alternative is that you have no idea what the basis will be until late February, 07. Of course, this CWB alternative is no different than doing a open-basis contract with a crusher or grain company for 07 canola or selling western barley futures as a hedge for next year's barley crop.

[wd9]

I agree Charlie. I see many resources burning out, we do need to focus on other parts of the business too.

What about peas, anyone have any sort of crystal ball in the shape of a pea? It seems the LDP of the US will continue to hamper Canadian pricing for green peas, but the market should be strong for yellow. It also seems many growers around here are fed up with peas agronomically so maybe the future is looking good. Hard to future price peas though.

I know I am struggling with whether or not to continue growing them although I never have had trouble marketing human peas and netting a good contribution margin on them - maybe one of the best CM's of all the crops.

[Zaphod]

17 million acres of canola? Yikes. But I still think the demand will be there.

With feedgrains and wheat trading at decent levels, canola will finally have some competition for acres. And what if oats stay at 2.25 or better? If you're a contrarian, try putting in flax. That market will be a dog for the rest of this year at least.

For peas, one thing I have heard is that US farmers are starting to shift from greens to yellows too. Not great news if it's true, but it's a bigger market than the greens. Just like red lentils vs Lairds

[wd9]

Zaphod, when I talked to the US Canola Grower guys they said the same thing. They are so #$%^%$$ at the LDP for peas in terms of canola because they were easier and cheaper to grow. Now they also realize yellows are easier to grow.

Anyone know the impact on Canadian malt exports and the challenges in Germany in terms of requirements from not enough malt? Roughly 500,000 tonnes that traditionally Australia was filling. Charlie, Lee, anything?

[cottonpicken]

Tom,you are one dumb turd and i feel sorry for anyone that listens to you about selling nov 07 grain.The more i read you the more i think your a buyer not a seller.

[TOM4CWB]

Cottenpicken,

A 7% hedge on 2007 Canola @ $347/t NOV for off the combine is a profitable start to my marketing program.

What is so stupid about that?

[wd9]

Well Tom4CWB maybe you and I can start the turd convention. A place where farmers lock in a known profit and can plan their sustainability. Call me a turd too cottenpicken because apparently I fit the definition. Anyone else a turd out there?

[craig]

Add me to the turd list. I might sell a turd now and a turd in the spring and the last turd at harvest

[Lifer]

No one ever lost money selling for a profit. What about Nov 2008 canola, very little open interest but an order for $350 may get picked up.

For wheat Chicago 2008 and 2009 also look attractive. $4.50/ bushel Chicago is a great price unless I'm missing something.

Yeh. I guess that makes me a Turd as well.

[WRAPper]

ya Tom Gee haven't you heard wheats going to 20 bucks....but by then of course a combine will be 8 million dollars.......apiece. And the biodiesel we counted on to save us will be grown in algae pounds in the fort mac area which has an annual average temperature of 43 celsius because of the global warming brought on by the steam rising from belinda"rover" stronachs' ears lately.

I'd be one of the first to sign up for the Tom4 CWB marketing course if he'd put one out if only he wasn't so dang busy trying to dry off his fababeans(I'm still waiting to be told how they yield and pencil out too).

Oh ya and while I'm at it shouldn't Peter Mckay be apologising.........to dogs everwhere.
there i feel better now........ oh and 8.46 new crop basis floated at me last week. (was saving it for Monday Morning pro con but oh well) I didn't bite as theres a 5 under always always at some point from now to seeding.( I just scr-wed that likelyhood didn't I)
Rant over off to watch baseyball

[cottonpicken]

HAHA!! Wrap you must be drunker than i am.

All right students class is is session.


1-we are in a bullmarket in commodities
2-most commodities have already moved the average move is between 200% and 450% and takes place between 20-28 months
-sugar
-copper
-lumber
-oil
-natural gas
-uranium
-zinc
-molebneum
-gold
-pallidium
-platnium
-steel
-coal
-Pull up their charts
I thought i may need 3 years to prove my point but i think its more like 6 months now.How could you possibly think your locking in profits for nov07 crop?You dont know your yield or production costs yet.Ever herd of a "underwater" hedge book.How attractive are all those oil companies that forward sold their production when oil was 25$.

I'm sure when our spike hits you'll all be patting each other on the back telling each other how smart you all are and that you new it all a long.

[WRAPper]

CP
You forget two important thing my friend, 1 I don't drink much and 2 other commodities are not food...........different rules for us I'm afraid it'll never happen.
But my offer still stands in fact I'll even cut my price to 9 dollars a bushel and I'm sure everyone else on this thread would join in and sell to you for that, remember what you said to me on another thread no chickenS&^Ts allowed here I think it should apply to Bovine waste as well, I'm still waiting for the purchase order.

[WRAPper]

One other thought you would not happen to have been a gas trader for amarath in a future life would you?

[WRAPper]

oops former life not future tnese mistake there,

[WRAPper]

CP
I really don't need to defend Tom he's perfectly capable of doing that himself, but wouldn't have asking him what makes him think prices weren't going to continue rising and presenting your case for just that been more effective than calling him a name and asking for derision from others that post on here and agree with his business model of locking in profitability on at least a portion of their production.
It works for Cargill they focus their whole mindset on ROI and profitable business moves. I don't see that being a poor way to make a farm work. If prices rise as you say they will that would then increase forward pricing opportunities for other years and crop thusly allowing producers the chance to lock in 08 production at profitable margins as well. Many producers have already locked in fertilizer for 07 as well as fuel. Crop insurance you can pencil if you understand the formula and the way they calculate it( I ballpark it)
And if I know Tom he likely has machinery costs and upgrades all pencilled too.
Still don't understand how thats something you would find to be bad management.,