Time to start 2007 grain marketing?

[WRAPper]

ya Tom Gee haven't you heard wheats going to 20 bucks....but by then of course a combine will be 8 million dollars.......apiece. And the biodiesel we counted on to save us will be grown in algae pounds in the fort mac area which has an annual average temperature of 43 celsius because of the global warming brought on by the steam rising from belinda"rover" stronachs' ears lately.

I'd be one of the first to sign up for the Tom4 CWB marketing course if he'd put one out if only he wasn't so dang busy trying to dry off his fababeans(I'm still waiting to be told how they yield and pencil out too).

Oh ya and while I'm at it shouldn't Peter Mckay be apologising.........to dogs everwhere.
there i feel better now........ oh and 8.46 new crop basis floated at me last week. (was saving it for Monday Morning pro con but oh well) I didn't bite as theres a 5 under always always at some point from now to seeding.( I just scr-wed that likelyhood didn't I)
Rant over off to watch baseyball

[cottonpicken]

HAHA!! Wrap you must be drunker than i am.

All right students class is is session.


1-we are in a bullmarket in commodities
2-most commodities have already moved the average move is between 200% and 450% and takes place between 20-28 months
-sugar
-copper
-lumber
-oil
-natural gas
-uranium
-zinc
-molebneum
-gold
-pallidium
-platnium
-steel
-coal
-Pull up their charts
I thought i may need 3 years to prove my point but i think its more like 6 months now.How could you possibly think your locking in profits for nov07 crop?You dont know your yield or production costs yet.Ever herd of a "underwater" hedge book.How attractive are all those oil companies that forward sold their production when oil was 25$.

I'm sure when our spike hits you'll all be patting each other on the back telling each other how smart you all are and that you new it all a long.

[WRAPper]

CP
You forget two important thing my friend, 1 I don't drink much and 2 other commodities are not food...........different rules for us I'm afraid it'll never happen.
But my offer still stands in fact I'll even cut my price to 9 dollars a bushel and I'm sure everyone else on this thread would join in and sell to you for that, remember what you said to me on another thread no chickenS&^Ts allowed here I think it should apply to Bovine waste as well, I'm still waiting for the purchase order.

[WRAPper]

One other thought you would not happen to have been a gas trader for amarath in a future life would you?

[WRAPper]

oops former life not future tnese mistake there,

[WRAPper]

CP
I really don't need to defend Tom he's perfectly capable of doing that himself, but wouldn't have asking him what makes him think prices weren't going to continue rising and presenting your case for just that been more effective than calling him a name and asking for derision from others that post on here and agree with his business model of locking in profitability on at least a portion of their production.
It works for Cargill they focus their whole mindset on ROI and profitable business moves. I don't see that being a poor way to make a farm work. If prices rise as you say they will that would then increase forward pricing opportunities for other years and crop thusly allowing producers the chance to lock in 08 production at profitable margins as well. Many producers have already locked in fertilizer for 07 as well as fuel. Crop insurance you can pencil if you understand the formula and the way they calculate it( I ballpark it)
And if I know Tom he likely has machinery costs and upgrades all pencilled too.
Still don't understand how thats something you would find to be bad management.,

[cottonpicken]

Your right wrap i should not have called him a name so Tom i'm sorry.
But that doesn't change the fact that he's wrong and i'm right.
Wrap where were you during the last commodities bull market?do you not see the similarities?What stopped that bull?Why was there a bull market?I doubt you know the answers to these questions but i'll give you a chance.
As for being a gas trader i'm not alltho i started picking up a few of the juniors about 3 weeks ago.
And again why the hell would i buy your wheat now for 9$???I said its going to 9$-and in less than a year i might add.
I'd bet my last beer that you locked a bunch of grain in before the current rally didnt you but of course you would never admit it.
As far as locking in these low fuel and fertilizer prices of course-i thought that was to obvious to mention.
Buy the way wrap i've been posting my market predictions on this site for 3 years.

[charliep]

It takes all kinds of opinions to make a market operate. For every seller in a transaction there has to be a buyer. This combination of decisions is what makes a price.

I also note that pricing is only one part of a market. Farmers sell to meet cash flow needs. Buyers enter secure supplies for their flour mill, malting plant, etc. These needs have more impact on the market that speculator/funds. The latter can add volatility for short periods but longer term it is the physical marketing of product that drives the market.

Last but not least I have speculated on futures with three comments - I lost money, risk side from volatility is way beyond my sleep factor tolerance (except for short periods when I seem to need extra stress in my life) and most important - I have always made more money on the short side of the market - even as a speculator. On the latter, being short is unnatural (we are all optimists) so I tend to apply more discipline to my trading.

Again the fact someone is a hedger and wants to forward while you are bullish want to be long is a good thing. The two of you can agree to disagree through your trading activities.

[WRAPper]

I'll enjoy that drink too, Barley fully unpriced in fact I'm currently sitting on a contract from my malster for our full 2006 production until I see the PRO on Thursday it might all still end up in High River in a cow. Canola priced my first 100 tonnes last Thursday at 7.50 a bushel net, took an additional tonnage for Jan at 3.70 under Jan.
Wheat priced some cps in March though a replaced a circle under irrigation that was going to be Barley .3.70 a bushel net to me it yielded like barley and I can live with it. Priced 100 tonnes of cwrs in july at the until last week high replacing another portion of a quarter I pulled from barley production. Peas fully unpriced.
So there you have it I like Diet coke rather than beer though... I'll take you up on it sometime.
As far as the last bull GRAINS rally it was likely really 1974 I was 9 at the time so my trading account wasn't active. I have studied it and the diference this time is that those sales we're mostly done on long term credit. Remember Grain is only a commodity as long as it doesn't become food. Governments get edgy when it does.

[WRAPper]

CP
Actually you said it was going to be 20. And why the change of name ???

[WRAPper]

And Charlie is right with his comments go with what works for you as far as strategies, If your still farming you must be doing something right and that goes for all that post on here. Theres many different roads that lead to the same place most times just have to be sure you can read the map so you don't drive off a cliff along the way. It's a nice day so I hope you have one too.

[charliep]

Cottonpicken

Just so you know, I am likely on the disciplined hedgers side (realizing this is a different process than you are talking about). Even hedgers have to have some plan "B"s in their backpocket. If futures, have stops in place for a market blowout. Be prepared to use options strategies next spring. Defer some pricing decisions till next spring. The big thing is to have a marketing plan with some continencies plans in place.