Time to start 2007 grain marketing?

[cottonpicken]

Your right wrap i should not have called him a name so Tom i'm sorry.
But that doesn't change the fact that he's wrong and i'm right.
Wrap where were you during the last commodities bull market?do you not see the similarities?What stopped that bull?Why was there a bull market?I doubt you know the answers to these questions but i'll give you a chance.
As for being a gas trader i'm not alltho i started picking up a few of the juniors about 3 weeks ago.
And again why the hell would i buy your wheat now for 9$???I said its going to 9$-and in less than a year i might add.
I'd bet my last beer that you locked a bunch of grain in before the current rally didnt you but of course you would never admit it.
As far as locking in these low fuel and fertilizer prices of course-i thought that was to obvious to mention.
Buy the way wrap i've been posting my market predictions on this site for 3 years.

[charliep]

It takes all kinds of opinions to make a market operate. For every seller in a transaction there has to be a buyer. This combination of decisions is what makes a price.

I also note that pricing is only one part of a market. Farmers sell to meet cash flow needs. Buyers enter secure supplies for their flour mill, malting plant, etc. These needs have more impact on the market that speculator/funds. The latter can add volatility for short periods but longer term it is the physical marketing of product that drives the market.

Last but not least I have speculated on futures with three comments - I lost money, risk side from volatility is way beyond my sleep factor tolerance (except for short periods when I seem to need extra stress in my life) and most important - I have always made more money on the short side of the market - even as a speculator. On the latter, being short is unnatural (we are all optimists) so I tend to apply more discipline to my trading.

Again the fact someone is a hedger and wants to forward while you are bullish want to be long is a good thing. The two of you can agree to disagree through your trading activities.

[WRAPper]

I'll enjoy that drink too, Barley fully unpriced in fact I'm currently sitting on a contract from my malster for our full 2006 production until I see the PRO on Thursday it might all still end up in High River in a cow. Canola priced my first 100 tonnes last Thursday at 7.50 a bushel net, took an additional tonnage for Jan at 3.70 under Jan.
Wheat priced some cps in March though a replaced a circle under irrigation that was going to be Barley .3.70 a bushel net to me it yielded like barley and I can live with it. Priced 100 tonnes of cwrs in july at the until last week high replacing another portion of a quarter I pulled from barley production. Peas fully unpriced.
So there you have it I like Diet coke rather than beer though... I'll take you up on it sometime.
As far as the last bull GRAINS rally it was likely really 1974 I was 9 at the time so my trading account wasn't active. I have studied it and the diference this time is that those sales we're mostly done on long term credit. Remember Grain is only a commodity as long as it doesn't become food. Governments get edgy when it does.

[WRAPper]

CP
Actually you said it was going to be 20. And why the change of name ???

[WRAPper]

And Charlie is right with his comments go with what works for you as far as strategies, If your still farming you must be doing something right and that goes for all that post on here. Theres many different roads that lead to the same place most times just have to be sure you can read the map so you don't drive off a cliff along the way. It's a nice day so I hope you have one too.

[charliep]

Cottonpicken

Just so you know, I am likely on the disciplined hedgers side (realizing this is a different process than you are talking about). Even hedgers have to have some plan "B"s in their backpocket. If futures, have stops in place for a market blowout. Be prepared to use options strategies next spring. Defer some pricing decisions till next spring. The big thing is to have a marketing plan with some continencies plans in place.

[AdamSmith]

W****r I was 9 in 1974 as well. The only thing I remember about the 1974 bull market was that my Dad promised to put a pool in the back yard when flax hit 12 dollars. Well, they're still mowing the spot I picked out for the pool.

CP enjoy your exhilaration with the bull market, because unless your that special somone who's developed a guaranteed system. You will experience an equal level of negative emotion when the market goes against you.

You can be 100% correct on predicting where a market is going to, but if you time it wrong, you can invite a finacial pain that makes you wish you had never heard of the term Technical Analysis. So CP in our climb to the lofty peaks in grain prices, are we going to have 1, 2, or 10 corrections in the market before that peak? Will they be short ie. 1 or 2 months or are we looking at 7 or 8 months?

There is a saying that goes Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

So CP I enjoy the opinions you post, but I find your communicating skills to be that of an 8th grader, a cocky 8th grader.

[cottonpicken]

In 1974 I was only 1 month old.I really am sorry for coming off combative and arrogant in my posts,i seem to lose emotional control on the subject of economics.I have spent over 5000 hours on it in the last 3 years and have a deep passion for it.I told Tom afew months ago that he was by far the most knowlegable person on the cwb and that i would "listen" to him and not debate him because he knows more. Good debate is always important as long as you know what your talking about thourghly.The greatness of the internet is the exchange of knowledge and ideas on boards like this.As far as hedging i would say it was more important in the past before the bull. WE will see EXTREME volitility in the months to come and like i said before selling into rhino horns is never a bad idea.But forward selling 12 months out now may put you on the wrong side of the trade.Just my opinion.

Wrap i said 3 years 20$.9$ in 6-18months.Bye the way we do have one thing in common, i am also a diet coke addict but i like beer better.

[AdamSmith]

CP, appolgy accepted.

[charliep]

I was in my 3 and 4 th year of University in 1974. My first jobs in the late 1970's were mainly related tax/estate planning (good old days). Then the early 1980's hit with the downturn in grain prices/20 % interest rates. I was a regional economist then and my work was working with farm family's in financial trouble. This early career experience sets out some of the reasons for current thinking.

Hope up everyone keeps up the market decision making postings. Will you putting up your Monday question WRAPper. Looking forward to the discussion.

[WRAPper]

Thats the way CP thank you ...... I really feel agriville can be so useful Especially over the next few years if things change as they may. I will be more than pleased to slap you on the back if we see the numbers you feel we'll see. Again there is nothing I'd rather see trust me. I belive the farmers should be the ones who are the rich and the powerful because at the end of the day I believe we do the most important job on the planet.
And I'm going to work on my littel idea for this forum now.

[cottonpicken]

Interesting you mentioned 20% interest rates Charlie thats what stopped the bull.The king of commodities gold started the 70's at 35$ an ounce and ended up topping out at 850$ in the early 80's.Inflation was very high and they had to raise rates to stop it.Why would you own gold,land or anything else when you could buy bonds with a 20% return.At the peak in 83 a really,really nice house was worth 90-100,000 and nice quaters of land were worth the same. Fast forward to today and our nice houses are worth 5,6,7,9-quarters of land.Sometimes i think the bear market for us farmers has been so long and so brutal that many refuse to believe that things could ever change, their shell shocked.Well guys there is 8x the money flowing around the globe as there was in 83 and its looking for a home.It will flow into the tangibles. Oil will go higher,wheat will go higher,coal,lumber,zinc,cobalt,gold,copper,sugar,s oybean.If it takes blood,sweat and tears to produce it, it will go up. Your right wrap we are important but were so important we've become a birth right.A city kid can become a lawyer or a doctor but he can not become a farmer.I would bet most guys here have been riding tractors and learning the ways longer than there memorys span down into their toddler years.Anyway nutshell history the way i see it. Got to check the markets and get my head around the TIC numbers out of the u.s.