Time to start 2007 grain marketing?

[AdamSmith]

W****r I was 9 in 1974 as well. The only thing I remember about the 1974 bull market was that my Dad promised to put a pool in the back yard when flax hit 12 dollars. Well, they're still mowing the spot I picked out for the pool.

CP enjoy your exhilaration with the bull market, because unless your that special somone who's developed a guaranteed system. You will experience an equal level of negative emotion when the market goes against you.

You can be 100% correct on predicting where a market is going to, but if you time it wrong, you can invite a finacial pain that makes you wish you had never heard of the term Technical Analysis. So CP in our climb to the lofty peaks in grain prices, are we going to have 1, 2, or 10 corrections in the market before that peak? Will they be short ie. 1 or 2 months or are we looking at 7 or 8 months?

There is a saying that goes Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

So CP I enjoy the opinions you post, but I find your communicating skills to be that of an 8th grader, a cocky 8th grader.

[cottonpicken]

In 1974 I was only 1 month old.I really am sorry for coming off combative and arrogant in my posts,i seem to lose emotional control on the subject of economics.I have spent over 5000 hours on it in the last 3 years and have a deep passion for it.I told Tom afew months ago that he was by far the most knowlegable person on the cwb and that i would "listen" to him and not debate him because he knows more. Good debate is always important as long as you know what your talking about thourghly.The greatness of the internet is the exchange of knowledge and ideas on boards like this.As far as hedging i would say it was more important in the past before the bull. WE will see EXTREME volitility in the months to come and like i said before selling into rhino horns is never a bad idea.But forward selling 12 months out now may put you on the wrong side of the trade.Just my opinion.

Wrap i said 3 years 20$.9$ in 6-18months.Bye the way we do have one thing in common, i am also a diet coke addict but i like beer better.

[AdamSmith]

CP, appolgy accepted.

[charliep]

I was in my 3 and 4 th year of University in 1974. My first jobs in the late 1970's were mainly related tax/estate planning (good old days). Then the early 1980's hit with the downturn in grain prices/20 % interest rates. I was a regional economist then and my work was working with farm family's in financial trouble. This early career experience sets out some of the reasons for current thinking.

Hope up everyone keeps up the market decision making postings. Will you putting up your Monday question WRAPper. Looking forward to the discussion.

[WRAPper]

Thats the way CP thank you ...... I really feel agriville can be so useful Especially over the next few years if things change as they may. I will be more than pleased to slap you on the back if we see the numbers you feel we'll see. Again there is nothing I'd rather see trust me. I belive the farmers should be the ones who are the rich and the powerful because at the end of the day I believe we do the most important job on the planet.
And I'm going to work on my littel idea for this forum now.

[cottonpicken]

Interesting you mentioned 20% interest rates Charlie thats what stopped the bull.The king of commodities gold started the 70's at 35$ an ounce and ended up topping out at 850$ in the early 80's.Inflation was very high and they had to raise rates to stop it.Why would you own gold,land or anything else when you could buy bonds with a 20% return.At the peak in 83 a really,really nice house was worth 90-100,000 and nice quaters of land were worth the same. Fast forward to today and our nice houses are worth 5,6,7,9-quarters of land.Sometimes i think the bear market for us farmers has been so long and so brutal that many refuse to believe that things could ever change, their shell shocked.Well guys there is 8x the money flowing around the globe as there was in 83 and its looking for a home.It will flow into the tangibles. Oil will go higher,wheat will go higher,coal,lumber,zinc,cobalt,gold,copper,sugar,s oybean.If it takes blood,sweat and tears to produce it, it will go up. Your right wrap we are important but were so important we've become a birth right.A city kid can become a lawyer or a doctor but he can not become a farmer.I would bet most guys here have been riding tractors and learning the ways longer than there memorys span down into their toddler years.Anyway nutshell history the way i see it. Got to check the markets and get my head around the TIC numbers out of the u.s.