Past U.S. wheat prices

[shafe]

Our marketing club is supposed to be having a meeting with our local CWB rep. to answer some questions that we have regarding some of the producer payment options. The question that I have is how come our basis level is so crappy.

I have heard a number of times that the Minn. futures price is not reflecting the true value of world wheat trade lately,and basis levels are ugly south of the border also. If their basis is as ugly as ours, then I will just suck it up. If not, I want an answer.

I have a couple of dates I would like compared:
July 11 Minn.futures $5.32 U.S.
Fixed price $6.49
Oct. 11 Minn.futures $5.29 U.S.
Fixed price $6.14

The Can.$ is about half a cent lower in Oct., which should raise the july price about 4 cents, so with the price differences we are getting about $.35 less now than we were in July.

I understand that DNS is a close cousin, and the best we have to compare to, so if the street price is down on it about the same, I have no question. If not, why?????????

A website with the info would be a great help, then I can do my own fact finding.

I have been watching and learning from all of you for a number of years now, and appreciate the passion and commitment given to our industry.

[charliep]

Can't sleep so I will add in another couple of numbers.

Daily price contract on July 11 - not available.

Daily price contract on October 11 (assuming you signed up) - $6.38/bu port.

Lets also assume you are not delivering 1CWRS 13.5 but rather 3CWRS (low protein). PRO price as of yesterday for 3CWRS - $5.42/bu port. Assuming you priced Oct. 11 and delvered 3CWRS yesterday against the fpc contract. $5.19/bu (95 cent/bu discount between 1CWRS 13.5 and 3CWRS low protein in initial payments). 3CWRS priced on Oct. 11 and delivered yesterday would result in a price of $5.49/bu.

I could run the example of locking the converted futures side on both days and subsequently locking in basis yesterday. Too many numbers already and too painfull. By the way, you would have different basis levels depending on when you signed up.

Back to sleep.

[charliep]

Am sleepy. The $5.49/bu should be a 3CWRS DPC.

[craig]

You can find Montana wheat prices on a USDA site. Just Google search Montana Grain Prices. They give prices per bushel for different areas of Montana for both Winter Wheat and spring wheat. You need to do a little work to compare because U.S. are quoted in even percent increments while we seem to like the .5 % protein. Also found a site ( Montana Wheat and Barley Committee) that gives historic wheat prices. I personally like Montana prices compared to Alberta because they roughly same distance to port and would assume they are going west Coast and then off shore to similar markets. Easy to also find currency calculator on web which will convert to canadian Dollars. Try not to be to shocked by what you find. On my 600 acres of wheat we figured we were getting $39000.00 less vs FPC and $54000.00 vs PRO's

[shafe]

Thanks for the info Craig.
I see that the street price for DNS is about $.34 lower in Oct. than it was in July with almost the same Minn. price.
Guess I will ask the question anyway just to see what they say.