Risk to the pool accounts in an open market

[chaffmeister]

Good point wd9 - when is a premiunm a premium? When the CWB says it is - I guess.

I always assumed that the CWB meant it demanded and got a better price than its competitors were offering - at the same time, same tender. But, even though they say they get a premium into Japan, I also hear stories like Incognito's - many times over.

So perhaps we need to ask the CWB - what does it mean when it refers to premium sales? Does it mean a premium over other potential sales/destinations at the same time? Or does it mean a premium over other sellers / same destination / same time?

Agstar77? Wilagro? Vader? Anyone else? Do any of you know?

[wd9]

Throw in your original point on risk of basis and then would that further calculate into that pooled "average price".

As a grower I can use the cash advance for cash flow and store the grain, sign up a better basis, whatever method and be paid for storing interest free now up to $100,000 and another 250,000 at low interest.

Another debate for sure is which is greater risk, price or basis? Given values and swings and predictability of basis by yield and other technical factors, I'd lean towards price and use timing for basis. Can the CWB do that? Don't know.

[AdamSmith]

The CWB premium is pure myth. If the cwb had any credible evidence at all they would have shared it with growers long ago.

Do you remember the KFT Study done just prior to the 1996 Western Grain Marketing Panel? We'll the KFT Study supposedly found a $13tonne premium on wheat. But in it's presentation to the marketing panel the cwb said that they only get premiums for high quality cwrs wheat. For wheat like cps or winter wheat the got no premiums. At the time the spread between a base #1 12.5% protien and a #1 CPS was around $10t to $12t. But if you looked at what they were saying that in an open market without the cwb premium of $13t, cps wheat would have been worth $1t more than cwrs.

They could never explain this illogical conclusion so they just hammered the spread between cps and cwrs another $20t and it's been that way ever since.

The premium doesn't exist, period.

Not one cwb study has ever been peer reviewed in order to verifiy the findings.

There is a very good reason why the cwb says it can't survive in an open market, it's because it's true. Not because of the loss of the single desk but because they have alienated so many growers that the cwb will have a very hard time convincing anyone to deal with them.

The CWB has spent the last ten years telling everyone that they have no value without the monopoly and their failure is assured if they are forced to compete.

Good sales pitch, Gaurenteed failure if you choose to deal with us. The farmers who support the cwb won't deal with them because they believe the fearmongering and the choice guys won't deal with them because the cwb has pissed them off for so long they will deal with anyone else but the cwb.

I once asked Lorne Hehn why I should have any confidence in the CWB when the CWB had such little confidence in it's own abilities to compete. He couldn't answer the question, No one can. Agstar77 can't, Vader can't, Ritter can't, Measner can't, Goodale can't.

The cwb has posistioned itself as a company so pathetic, so utterly useless to anyone, so magnificently meaningless that the only way they can survive is if people are forced to deal with them.

I'm sure you all have heard the joke about a baby being so ugly that it's parents had to tie a pork chop around it's neck just so the dog would play with it.

Well, isn't that exactly what the cwb says about itself, but it's not a joke to them, they mean it.

But the game changes tommorow boys.

That argument is going to be like a noose around the cwb's neck. It's going to be interesting days ahead.